It feels like I have been writing about the decline of Brown for some time now. But here we are with the captain playing the equivalent of 35.22 matches this season. The dependency on him seems no less onerous. How is he continuing to rage against the dying of the light?
Defensive Performance
What I will make clear up front is that further to my end of season report Brown: Growing Old Gracefully, the trend is for a gradual decline in overall involvement. His performance levels improved markedly after the winter break last season. He performs a unique role in the team, sitting in front of the defence, not expected to contribute much to attack (but 4 goals this season!).
His role this season has shifted subtly. Rather than be more integral to the midfield, he is more likely to sit back into the defensive line. With both full backs attacking this season, there is a need for extra midfield cover. Previously whilst Tierney remained high and wide Lustig would tuck in. Now that Lennon seeks equal pace on the right side, so Brown covers more and builds less.
In terms of core defensive actions:
The trend continues of less successful challenges and interceptions. Unsuccessful ones are creeping up meaning the Defensive Action Success Rate % is reducing.
For context, 62% is 11% higher than the next highest midfielder, McGregor.
The one aspect of this that is degrading the most is aerial challenges. Whilst Brown is losing less tackles, he is losing more headers.
Another indicator of decreasing mobility is that Brown is Packed (bypassed by forward passes) 12.18 times per 90m compared to 9.72 last season. Celtic are generally slightly more open than under Rodgers, the corollary to more aggressive vertical football (Celtic defenders Packed per 90 has gone up from 9.92 to 11.61 per 90m).
So, decline for sure but it continues to be very gradual.
Ball Progression
Celtic are generally less patient in their passing. Average completed Open Play passes is down from 531 per 90m to 442. Brown’s passing numbers are therefore declining as well.
I’d say this is more to do with team style than any individual reflection on Brown.
Indeed, this smiley face reflects Brown is completing 8.32 Pack Passes (forward passes that take out opponents) per 90m compared to only 5.22 last season. He is setting the example on the pitch for the manager, as you’d expect.
Further good news is that xA is back up to 17/18 levels whilst there has been a spurt in xG, albeit all from a small base. Brown is not matching his Goal rate of 0.11 per 90m by his xG but that prolific run of 4 goals in 7 games may not be repeated! I can inly emphasise these numbers are from a low base, and may be reflective of Celtic’s more attacking outlook under Lennon.
His involvement in Secondary Assists (the pass before the assisting pass) is down very slightly, and again can be explained by him sitting deeper in general.
If we look at complete involvement in forward actions, his Total Impect per 90m is 49.03 which after a dip last season is back above 17/18 levels (47).
Conclusion
In line with Celtic’s more direct approach, Browns slightly more defensive responsibilities, his involvements overall are decreasing. From 85 possession events in 17/18 he is now involved in 70 per 90m. His performance mirrors changes to team style more than anything.
Brown continues to evidence “managed decline”. No falling off the performance cliff here (see Rogic).
The hints at decline are still there – DASR% down, Packed more often, decreasing aerial prowess. But the message is the same as last season. He is still performing a role no other squad member does. He needs help and with Bitton back to fitness I have no idea why the captain has not been rested on occasion. Brown’s numbers are not going to go up, especially defensively which is his core responsibility.
There doesn’t appear to be activity in the January window around defensive midfield experienced cover so maybe Bitton will be utilised for the run in.
The captain continues to need help.
Jim says
Broony has been an excellent Player for our Club you just have to look @
the amount of Seasons he has been with us & is going to be very difficult
to replace a holding down midfield player its obvious over the Seasons
Broony has become a little slower however he is still a useful player indeed
I would like to see Celtic not only look out for holding midfield players I
would also like Celtic to keep an eye out for ‘Playmaker’ midfield players
as well to give our Team a more direct approach to our sytle of play
Hail – Hail All & Coybig
SteveNaive says
Agree with above and your stats are amazing. Before BR I thought SB was near finished. His impact on games, particularly in Europe was diminished . I gather this was partly due to instructions from Mr Delia to base himself around the centre circle ! Then he was injured and his worth was very noticeable by his absence. I went to his book signing at Celtic Park a few years ago and he talked very well as a player and Celtic captain and not without humour. I’m glad he signed for us and what he has given us. Bit wary now of the need for a defensive midfielder so maybe he will be the last we see of this for a while. Nine would be a fitting legacy to add to the trophies.
James Dailey says
I first want to state explicitly that what I am about to share is not intended as an “attack” on Scott Brown as a captain or footballer. However, given the nature of the league this season and the real potential for a deep EL, now is not the time for complacency or nostalgia.
I agree largely with Alan’s read of the data in a narrow “Brown only” framework. My disagreement with Alan is on the ultimate conclusions her draws, and that disagreement is based upon contextualizing Brown’s decline with comparable defensive mids in the SPFL and the Europa League.
I can’t share everything I’ve accumulated to perform this analysis, but I will summarize this way. The decline Alan highlights in his Challenges/Intercepts data is about 18% over the 2 seasons. That sort of decline is enough to take Brown from what was an elite defender at his position in the SPFL to being a good defender. Compared to other defensive midfielders for clubs in the Europa League, Brown’s decline has him now being a middle of the pack defender, when he had been very good to elite.
This is so important for Brown’s value on the pitch because he offers so little offensively and creatively. I calculated a benchmark of performance levels for the SPFL defensive midfielders who don’t play for Celtic or Rangers, and Brown’s combined xA+xG from Open Play p90 is below their average. For a team as dominant offensively as Celtic, that is pretty amazing. It also places him as one of the worst at his position at the Europa League level. His Key Pass data is similarity poor. Some deep lying midfielders can defy aging longer due to offsetting their declining defensive value by being great playmakers/passers. Unfortunately, that has never been Brown’s game.
Brown’s interceptions and recoveries remain steady at a good level, but no longer great. He is 5th in interceptions p90 at his position in the SPFL, for example. Alan rightly highlighted his decline in aerial duels. The net result is that the current vintage of Brown at the Europa League level is an average defender and very poor creatively and offensively- the net of that is a below average player at his position.
Another commenter mentioned that Brown looked done in the 2015-2016 season, which was not an uncommon view. Outside of interceptions and recoveries, every single other defensive metric I have is worse this season that they were in 2015/2016, with many down 15% or more.
Brown’s data does show a clear and obvious improvement in performance in the first to seasons under Rodgers, but that has all been given back and then some. Brown deserves credit for the dedication and lifestyle changes he reportedly implemented to add another terrific chapter to his career. But it is time for his role to shift again, with being a rotated starter and sub off the bench to lock down games. Playing him over 3,200 minutes already this season had been grossly negligent- particularly with the other midfield options available. Hopefully Soro is being brought in as a serious challenger for the position, as the future is now.
SteveNaive says
Great comment James and I wouldn’t be able to argue with the numbers. It’s not all about that though is it ? I’m not dismissing them and realise their importance in the modern game but we go to watch football played what was ‘the Celtic Way’. Increasingly this is diminished because we keep selling the players best placed to implement it. Throughout all of this attempt at Moneyball ( in the last twelve years) Scott Brown has never hidden, called off unless injured, played through injury and willed his teammates on to victory in the vast majority of games. I agree with your assessment and how the manager should use him now but… at this time?.. how do you tell him that? Sorro on for Brown, not the reverse.
James Dailey says
Hello Steve – thank you for the kind words.
I agree 100% that it isn’t all about the numbers but different stakeholders in Celtic have different “what it is about” interests and variables. The board are in charge of a sporting entertainment franchise which is legally responsible to the financial interests of shareholders. Celtic supporters have probably the most complex “about,” from lifestyle, fandom, important social interests (friends/family/etc), entertainment, etc. Players have careers and the manager is worried mostly about winning…..etc.
Ultimately, it is the manager and the backroom staff that should be most concerned about the data, analytics, and how they can empower better decisions. Ultimately, winning and doing so in an entertaining fashion is probably the most central common interests for all involved – but winning being clearly first. That is inherently a competitive endeavor and an intellectual arms race of sorts. Liverpool’s head analytics guy hardly knows squat about football and is a theoretical physicist by training. Most of the successful teams in pro-sports in the US now employ MIT-type phd’s in math and physics. Nostalgia plays a big role in the legacy and enjoyment of fans, but things evolve due to competition. Just as players no longer drink 4+ nights a week and smoke cigarettes at half time, with more data we learn more about the game and how to gain competitive edge or do what is necessary to keep up. Clubs like St Mirren are now deploying more “US sports” analytical models with new ownership, and it is only matter of time before Rangers leapfrog us (if they haven’t already-big Liverpool connections) if we remain stuck in the past and/or complacent. Guess who is 3rd in the SPFL in the “xG” table, which gauges underlying performance levels? St Mirren!
Neil Lennon admitted in public weeks later that Brown played through a toe injury during the Champions League qualifiers, including the Cluj loss that knocked us out. I’ve analyzed that game extensively, and Brown and his poor movement were directly responsible for 3 of the 4 goals. He looked like a guy playing on a bad toe! With all of the subsequent talk of McGregor at LB, it was Brown playing injured which was most responsible for being knocked out of the Champions League.
No individual is bigger than the Club and Lennon needs to be a leader, in my opinion, and do what is best for the Club – not any individual. Celtic’s analytics team surely has access to the data that Alan so skillfully generates and way more regarding other teams in Scotland and Europe than I am paying $13 a month to get. I can think of no data-driven or rational reason why a player of Brown’s profile needs to play in his supposed role versus Hamilton at home, for example. What exactly is our back 4 being protected against when it is creativity against a low block which is required?
Lastly, my analysis of Rangers and doing homework on who is working there now has me convinced that the league is in real jeopardy. In another forum I was railing about complacency and the risks of selection and tactics heading into the Cup Final and even more so before the game on the 29th. At the end of the day, would you and all the rest of the support be happier with a pissed off Brown and 9iar or Brown playing every game and losing it? If Brown doesn’t get over his emotions and adjust to a new role and do everything he can to help the Club win the league, then perhaps he was never the captain we think he is. Hail hail!
James Dailey says
Sorry – one quick addendum. The “Moneyball” way would dictate that James Forrest and Callum McGregor be sold as fast as possible, as they are likely about as good as they will ever be and their transfer value poised to decline in the next year or two. I am not advocating for such an extreme version – there can be something in the middle.
Jim says
True & fair points you raise James about Broony as I’ve mentioned before Broony
has been a good servent with our Club however & over time Broony is not as sharp
as he was before & we do need to look @ other options in the midfield area of the
park for example getting the ball more quicker from back to front cause Broony
tends to slow it down in that area of our play also we need to find & appoint
another suitable Captain who will receive messages from our coach (Lenny) during
the course of each match & pass them on accordingly as for James Forrest well
Brendan Rodgers seemed to get the best out of him believe it or not James Forrest
is the most senior player in our squad even more than Broony cause James Forrest
came through all the Club’s youth & development programme James Forrest has
pace & he can score odd goals here & there however a lot of times his decision
making is poor taking on the same opponents too many times passing when he
should be shooting & shooting when he should be passing in other words better
options available also he should be more direct making too many passes when
not necessary as for Callum McGregor we all know the GB like him with their
wee ditty/tune about him although we will just leave the GB to create an
atmosphere in the Stadium although GB I would add don’t give the Hun
Media Group cannon fodder to try & embarrass our Club leave out the offensive
bannars & don’t use Pirotechnics cause we all know what the Media are like
in Coldland they are looking for any negative storys about our beloved Club
Box clever young ones right as I was saying about Callum McGregor yes
he can pick out a good pass & score the odd goal here & there however
his weakness is that he gets shoved off the ball too easly he should be
learning off of tall Eddie how to hold up the ball & not get shoved off it
to easy also Callum McGregor is another player that Brendan Rodgers
got the best out of so he can perform to what’s a necessary level however
he has to learn to hold down & control the midfield not let the midfield
very easly get over-runned like it was in the last two matches against
Sevco last December (2019) which was poor Celtic should be looking
@ repeating performances against Sevco like the performance they
displayed last August (2019) @ Ibrox in other words they got their
tactics spot on that day if we get decent offers for James Forrest &
Callum McGregor then perhaps we should let them go however we
will need other replacements to replace them either through our
Development Accademy or in the Transfer Market however the
Transfer Auction Market is not cheap nowadays so therefore I
would not let James Forrest or Callum McGregor go cheaply we
need to box clever in the Transfer Auction Market nowadays &
after all Football nowadays is a lucrative business its not a
Sport anymore its a big business for example back in the
unique good old days when Jock Stein was our Manager
Footballers played to entertane the Fans & for their enjoyment
ah the good old days the days before Season Books & Cards &
none of this oh you have to have gone to so many away matches
to be able to get a ticket for away domestic matches &
ridiculous kick off days & times that the TV Companies
(Sly & BT Sport) states when these matches should start
talk about inconvience or what that’s my opinion of what’s
going down yeah laters Folks & Hail – Hail.