Article by James Dailey
The signing of Patryk Klimala has generated the typical frenetic response from Celtic support, as some immediately think he and the Slovakian league are rubbish, some watch his video highlights on Youtube and extol on Twitter that he is the “next Lewandowski,” while still others take a wait and see approach. Being a proud member of the stats and analytics fiefdom, I’ve run off and tried to accumulate performance data and then do some comparative analysis. The following data is via Wyscout and breaks out performance data metrics per 90 minutes for the following:
- Klimala in the Polish top league this season;
- Bayo broken out between his 2018-2019 season in Slovakia, then his limited minutes at Celtic this season;
- Andraz Sporar who also played this season in Slovakia and was linked to Celtic; and
- Edouard’s metrics for his first season at Celtic and then this season.
Rational
My reason for these selections and comparisons are as followings:
- Age is an important component of player development, as players ascend and then descend physical aging curves. Players typically peak physically between 22-25, slowly start to decline into their late 20’s, and then begin to drop off more quickly in their 30’s. However, physicality is not the only aspect of an athlete, and the cognitive development players experience accumulates and largely offsets the modest physical decline into their late 20’s. The impact is a player peaking with the relative balance of wisdom/experience overwhelming the modest physical decline into ages 27-29. At that point, the physical decline speeds up and begins to overwhelm the accumulated wisdom. Each position has its own spectrum of physical vs cognitive skills – wingers and central midfielders lean towards the former, while centre halfs and strikers lean towards the latter. I’ve broken each player out by season/age to provide context of where they may be in their physical and cognitive development.
- I’ve selected the current roster of Celtic strikers with the exclusion of Leigh Griffiths, and then included Sporar because of the value offering further context for Klimala’s performance as a 21-year-old in the same league. Griffiths has so little performance data recently and is now at an age where physical decline is a major risk. I believe there is a significant risk that Griffith’s time at Celtic’s level is over.
- Other than issues with sample size, relative strength of league and opposition are important to consider. One imperfect way to have a starting point for comparison is the UEFA club coefficient by country, which places Scotland 16th, Poland 28th, and Slovakia 30th. However, those coefficients can be impacted heavily by 1 or 2 teams being dominant domestically and accruing points with success in Europe. I would argue Scotland fits this characterization, whereas it is possible that the competitive balance and depth in Poland and Slovakia could be comparable or even better than Scotland. What do I mean by this in layman’s terms? Basically, their versions of Hamilton and Aberdeen may be better than ours, but overall, I think it is reasonable to consider that the competitive levels in the three leagues are in the same neighborhood.
Player Comparison
The following table compares each player by season:
Klimala
I’ve highlighted various cells to draw attention to metrics which stand out positively (green) and negatively (red). Within the context of these strikers, Klimala has generated the lowest xG per 90 minutes, but the second highest xA. Edouard’s 0.24 xA is exceptional for a striker and Klimala is not far behind. Klimala’s extremely low # of passes per 90 may be more a product of his team’s style of play. His aerial stats are ok and his interceptions are low, but again, that could be due to playing style. His total xG+xA of 0.67 is a very good level of offensive production, as his excellent xA stands out.
Most importantly for Klimala is his age and some of the qualitative reporting which has surrounding his transfer. Apparently, he’s had some attitude issues in the past and the past six months have seen him “grow up” some and become a more dedicated and coachable professional. That is completely normal within the context of cognitive development for players his age, as people come from a huge spectrum of background and life experiences. This mental maturity is variable and can often emerge in jumps, which also often coincides with big improvements in development. Players’ biggest jumps in development are typically in their late teens and early 20’s precisely for this reason – mental maturity. Klimala’s reported elite pace, quickness and playing style running off the shoulders of centre halfs could be a potent combination if Lennon decides to play him with Edouard, whose creativity is elite.
Edouard
I want to again highlight how elite Edouard’s creativity is, and how much his Dribbling stands out. If we look at his heat map for the season, we see how left sided he is and how much he creates outside the box – almost like a left sided #10:
As Edouard has developed and played more, he is unquestionably an incredible player who offers tremendous value through his creativity and dribbling. However, his scoring and finishing stats are good but not great. It is his well roundedness which makes him elite. Combined with his left sidedness, and Celtic’s already imbalanced tilt left with McGregor being a superior creative player on that side vs Brown on the right, I think Celtic really does need a striker(s) who dominates in the box. Despite rumors of a loan deal to get playing time, I really think Bayo could be that man.
Bayo
I started this research looking to gather more information on Klimala, but it has also provided me renewed optimism for Bayo, as he dominates the table with green. Bayo’s stats standout as him having a presence inside the box, with superior aerial stats- both in number but as importantly his % of wins. I am mystified by the widespread narrative among our support that he’s been relatively poor when he’s played this season – I believe he suffers from issues of confirmation bias similar to Bolingoli, as a few poor touches have created an inaccurate mental anchor for many. For example, Edouard has averaged 13.11 losses of possession per 90 minutes this season vs 11.89 for Bayo. People understandably remember Bayo’s really ugly touches, but he averaged 12.86 in his last season in Slovakia, which is still below Edouard’s rate this season, and suggests he may be better on the ball than many perceive.
Bayo’s heatmap also offers why I believe he offers something different:
This is from his 18/19 season in Slovakia – notice the dark red right around the penalty spot. How many times have you screamed at a game when a Celtic cross goes through the box and “no one” is there? I know I do it all the time! A comparison of this Bayo heatmap with Edouard’s is stark. I’d also like to highlight that Bayo’s last season in Slovakia was at the age of 22, yet still compares favorably to what Sporar has done this season in his age 26 season. It is likely that Bayo still has further development experience.
Impact on Shape
I also am growing increasingly concerned that Lennon’s preferred 4-2-3-1 does not optimize the talents of our players, including Edouard as a stand-alone striker. Underlying performance metrics suggest McGregor has been better as an attacking 8, Brown better as an centrally played 6, Ntcham and Christie have also been better as attacking 8’s, and based upon my analysis, I think Edouard would be better leveraged by either playing as a left sided forward, or as part of a 2 along with a box striker. Klimala appears to offer something different which could compliment Edouard if Lennon is open to a change in shape and/or role for Edouard.
Is Klimala the Answer?
However, Klimala is 21 and just “broken out” in his mental development in the past 6 months. Setbacks and a period of acclimation would be the norm. Can Celtic “afford” patience, and is it fair to the young man to have such pressure to perform immediately given the title challenge and an opportunity for a run in the Europa League? I believe we need 3 strikers – especially if playing 2 is an option Lennon desires, and hope Bayo is one of the three. His aerial superiority also addresses two huge areas of competitive weakness for Celtic this season – both scoring and defending set pieces/corners. Particularly as we look forward to the two remaining derbies, which in aggregate may determine the league, a shift in tactics and addressing clear competitive weaknesses vs Rangers should be a priority.
Klimala may very well assist in that regard, but it seems to me the risks of that not occurring are significant given his age and stage of development, and Bayo’s skillset offers a clear fit in formulating a badly needed plan for those upcoming derbies. A scenario where Klimala does eventually develop to become the next “Vardy” or “Lewandowski” could unfold even if he doesn’t contribute enough to help win the league this season. I believe that putting all our chips on Klimala while loaning out Bayo would be a significant and unnecessary risk to 9 in a row, as well as placing unnecessary pressure and risk on Klimala’s long term development.
Finally, the “Mystery Man” in the table above is Lawrence Shankland. His data needs to be tempered by the fact that the Scottish Championship is clearly a lower level, and his stats are not nearly dominant enough for me at that level. Pass!
Hoople says
I’ve been reading your analyses for a long time, and always meant to leave a comment without ever getting round to it.
So, thanks very much for all the effort you put into these articles and for making us rethink our positions.
Your work is enlightening and greatly appreciated.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Very kind thank you
Al says
Likewise mate, appreciate your efforts.
Agathe Bartholomew says
What a complete pile of copy and pasted dross…
It wasn’t you that penned this article, nor did you have access to a scouting report. Football Manager PC game more likely.
James Dailey says
Hello Agathe – your name is the absolute best one I’ve come across in a while. Thank you for taking the time to read and comment.
Nothing in this post was copied and pasted other than the heat maps – I even henpecked to enter the stats into a spreadsheet. I am flattered it could be confused as having been copied and pasted or from Football Manager – I was expecting far worse! Cheers
Johnfrancis23 says
Do u really believe in stats its been proved to be wrong get a life hope the player scores every game
Duncan says
Neil Lennons preference to Systems is dictated by the opposition.
He unlike the previous two Incumbents is more inclined to change Systems to suit PROVIDED he has the players available to do so.
Being restricted to one Striker through injuries has hampered this but not completely this Season.
I must say I do find it odd that you left Griffiths out of the piece and included a player who may never sign for Celtic?
Griffiths fir the record is 4 goals short of becoming the Clubs top Goalscorer since Larsson departed currently 3 behind John Hartson.
Édouard is not a genuine No9 the new kid is.
Bayo we hoped would be but yet again it would appear Rodgers and co have signed another flop at Celtic.
James Dailey says
Hello Duncan- thank you for taking the time to comment.
I disagree with your characterization regarding Lennon, but agree 100% about him being handcuffed with just one striker. We’ve played 4-2-3-1 84% of the time this season, with 5 total formations overall. Even with 1 striker, we haven’t seen a 4-1-4-1 or 4-3-3 at all. In Rodgers last full season (17/18), his top formation was also 4-2-3-1 but only 41% of the time and he used 12 different formations, including 7 with a single striker.
As for Griffiths, his protracted layoff and very limited data over the past 18 months is why I excluded, and decision was made not to “pile on” while he continues to try and rebuild his career. His last full season in 2017/18 was very good but Bayo’s performance data (small sample size for sure) for when he has played is comparable to that season for Griffiths. I hope Griffiths can recover his form but 2 years is a long time and he will be 30 in August.
Duncan says
Lennon is far kore pragmatic in his approach to problem solving than Rodgers ever was at Celtic.
This is why the latter failed to produce in Europe where the real test lies.
Lennon favours playing two Strikers over one and will change it depending on opponent.
The problem with the last game 2angers was not the setup.
It was too many key players failing to produce on the day and it is a problem that no Manager can a lot for when setting his side up because these key men are key to how we play.
We dominated the possession and created more chances.
Without playing anywhere near the level we know they can.
You can throw all the stats you want at it but the fact remains Neil Lennon guided us past a tough Europa Group into the knockout phase by winning the Group.
We haven’t seen that level of consistency for a good while in Europe.
Well not since Lennon was here last that is.
Griffiths is a natural finisher a true No9 and when fit will get goals.
He needs game time that’s all.
Duncan says
😉
nick66 says
I’m unsure why the negative posts. I always look forward to the CBN match/player analasys. It, for me over the time i have watched Celtic has given me another more measured view of the game. Like all stats there is ever the human factor, the games you just can’t explain, why, but the averages don’t lie and i will keep reading your dedicated work with interest ongoing. I expect that the football pros most likely use a similar method in their assessment of possible signings. Keep up the good work.