With 41 goals in 13 matches, Celtic have started the second Lennon era in spectacular fashion.
As I covered in The (Partial) Death of Possession Football, Lennonball involves more shots, a bit of regression back towards the xG mean, slight increase in chance creation and a whole lotta conversion rate joy!
Let’s look at the early pace setters in terms of Goals and Expected Goals.
(For the purposes of this, I’m only including those with minutes adding up to > 5 appearances.
Goals / Expected Goals
The table covers goals scored per 90m (including penalties) and Expected Goals (xG) per 90m. I also highlight the difference between the two.
Those in Green are overperforming against their xG. Expect them to not keep up that scoring rate if their xG does not improve.
Those in yellow have a less than 0.1 difference per 90m between goals and xG. They can be expected to maintain their current scoring record if their xG does not change.
Christie
Christie is currently Celtic’s top scorer with 8 goals, 2 of which are penalties. He is significantly exceeding his xG.
Christie is taking 64% of his shots outside the box. So far, 4 of his 21 shots from outside the box have resulted in goals – 19%. Generally, shots from outside the box result in goals 4% of the time.
24% of all Christie’s shots are resulting in goals. This is exceptionally high. 11% is average.
These rates are likely unsustainable.
Here’s hoping he gets into the box more often or at least his “hot streak” continues!
Johnston
Similarly, 2 of Johnston’s 9 shots from outside the box have resulted in goals. However, his shots outside the box ratio is 50%.
Edouard and Forrest
The top players based on shot quality are Edouard and Forrest. Both are getting the rewards their shot quality would suggest.
Edouard’s conversion rate is an excellent 18%. Whilst well above average, this may be sustainable as our eyes tell us what an assured finisher he is.
He also takes 68% of his efforts from inside the box which will usually lead to better quality chances.
Forrest’s also taking 68% of shots in the box. Indeed, he has possession of the ball in the opposition box more often than any other Hoop (6.29 per 90m). This is a continuing trend in how he plays.
Currently 45% of Forrest’s efforts are on target. However, 35% are blocked meaning he has room to further improve.
I will track this throughout the season.
Mark67! says
Please do not continue this stats article, the last thing we need are even more jealous eyes decking our talent!
Though two weeks ago, I the same as some others, had doubts over Lenny, sack the board, etc., now am delighted with our progress and your stats show the professionalism the squad have and the undoubted work put on behind the scenes. Long may it continue. Would be nice to have a comparison with last seasons. Never happy, are we! COYBIG!
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
See the article about 2 down from this one – The (Partial) Death of Possession Football, for the comparison you seek.