Celtic face Romanian champions CFR Cluj in Glasgow with the Champions League Play off round at stake (sorry!). It is fair to say Celtic rarely come across a team that play like Cluj.
The away leg in Transylvania was, in some respects, the classic European away experience:
- Opposition mind games
- Grass left long
- Pitch not watered
- Exotic and unusual style of play
That is not to diminish the Romanians. Theirs is a very experienced and disciplined outfit. Six of their starters were 30 years or over. The average age of their 31-man squad is 28.2 compared to 25.1 for Celtic. They are well-motivated and organised. Coached in a very particular style.
They remain a threat. But how to characterise that threat?
The Cluj Conundrum
They actually completed more open play passes (190) than any team Celtic have faced this season. Yet they didn’t seem to care whether they kept possession or not.
They were incomplete with 119 passes, 18 more than Nomme Kalju and higher than any team Celtic faced last season, bar one. Can you guess which one?
Strangely, the style of football this Cluj team has most in common with are the Red Bull franchises of Salzburg and Leipzig. I showed last season that Salzburg were not far behind some of the elite sides Celtic have faced in recent years. But it was Leipzig that gave up 125 passes at Celtic Park in the Hoops best performance of the season.
Cluj have nowhere near the standard of players of those aforementioned teams. However, there is danger to the way they play – up to a point.
Strategy is to get the ball forward as quickly as possible. In fact, it looks like Lennon is tuning this Celtic side in a slightly similar way. Setting up 4-3-3 that becomes a more traditional 4-5-1 out of possession, the Romanians tried to make the game a mess. That is, minimise the amount of time Celtic had settled, controlled possession.
This kind of worked as Celtic were limited to 231 open play passes – nearly 300 less than any other game this season! It is fewer open play passes than ANY game last season.
They were energetic in deploying a high press wherever possible. It is noticeable that this tired off towards the end, after about 70 minutes. Celtic Park is the same length but 8 yards wider.
It is more the Klopp school or footballing philosophy than Guardiola. I think Lennon has similar leanings, whilst Rodgers is a firm acolyte of the Guardiola school.
There are also echoes of 1980’s era Wimbledon. Whereas that involved launching high balls onto a big target man and the fighting for second balls, this was a little more nuanced. The favoured ploy was to disrupt Celtic’s shape with long diagonals to switch the play. Then to get crosses into the box as early as possible, especially from the left foot of Deac.
Limitations
I am not sure whether they had a bad night or whether they just aren’t very good at implementing their strategy.
Cluj managed to attempt 20 crosses, 7 more than any other opponent so far this season. They didn’t connect with any of them. Only 1 pass connected into the Danger Zone all match. They were not concerned with playing through Celtic’s lines – only 14 Celtic defenders Packed and 38 Pack Passes is the highest Celtic have faced this season, but not high by the standards of top sides.
Indeed, they created 9 chances all match. The respective xG was0.863 Celtic to 0.923 Cluj. A very tight game with few good chances.
And this was the surprise given how stretched and open the match seemed from the first whistle. Despite the openness and ease with which both sides got the ball through the attacking and midfield lines, the chances didn’t follow.
The reason for this, I believe, is that playing long high balls does not allow your midfield or full backs to get into position for second balls. There were not sufficient teammates around to profit from the challenge, interception or clearance following a long pass. Cluj’s older team, whilst imbued with considerable work rate, didn’t have the pace to get past the strikers or sufficiently support the front three.
Celtic didn’t create too much either – 8 chances, but 3 were from corners.
Danger Remains
Cluj are utterly committed to playing the way they play and their approach will not change.
Where Celtic need to be careful is in second balls. The Recoveries stat is very useful in this regard to highlight the point.
So far this season, Celtic opponents average 69 recoveries per match. Cluj recovered the ball 104 times. There game is built on it. They don’t care if the first pass does not connect. Their goal is to secure the second ball with superior field position. In essence they are playing for lucky breaks – rather than playing through sides with passing and movement – throw the ball in and be prepared to get on the end of what happens next.
They did not create much using this approach in the first match, but it only takes a second and all that.
Celtic need to be extra vigilant to secure those second balls. Celtic have recovered it an average of 83 times in each match this season. It will need to be higher in the return leg.
Conclusion
Cluj are dangerous but predictable in their unpredictability. They will look to make the game a mess of unstructured play. Celtic’s home advantage, a slick and wider pitch, will assist, as will conditions hostile to the Romanians.
Celtic need to be vigilant to ensure winning the header or clearing the initial long pass diagonal is just the precursor to securing possession. I’d have Christie back as an 8 for this game as he excelled versus Leipzig in a similar styled match against far superior players. Ntcham can continue as 10.
Anticipation, speed and aggression to secure loose balls will be paramount. Celtic’s superior speed and fitness should then tell.
Steve McGrory says
So, Alan – if you would play Christie & Ntcham tomorrow night, does that mean leave Johnston on the bench and have a midfield diamond?
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Hi Steve id go for a midfield 3 of Brown McGregor Christie with Ntcham at 10 off Edouard. Johnston and Forrest flanking.
A diamond is not a good idea v their big diagonal switches.
James Miller says
That would mean playing a back 3?
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Ha you are right I’m being an idiot! Ignore that one. My excuse is the m on holiday enjoying a nice pre dinner white wine!!!?
No not a back 3 against 433 v bad idea. I’d match up therefore sacrificing Ntcham.
Paul says
Alan as always superb; and nuanced, will help me watch the second leg (CBN data in advance coupled with alcohol should make the game easier to watch!)
TheBlackDouglas says
Another excellent post, which puts other sites to shame.
Great analysis.
James says
I hope you enjoy your holiday- very informative post and greatly appreciated. I think your analysis and response to another commenter highlight the cognitive dissonance amongst many supporters, and probably Neil Lennon, when it comes to Brown. Given their style and that our best performance last year was against Leipzig with McGregor at the 6, it is pretty clear to me that Brown should not be first choice tonight. Add on how poor he looked in the 1st leg and even against Motherwell, and the selection shouldn’t even be a difficult choice. Even the idea of McGregor/Christie/Ntcham at 6/8/10 with Johnston on the left is intoxicating, but we won’t see it. Probably be ok tonight, but Prague will be a different animal, and this reliance on Brown, despite obvious evidence to the contrary, may just cost us the Champions League.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Thanks James
I agree the combination you suggest is intriguing but disagree on Brown. He remains vital doing the unglamorous defensively minded bits and pieces. Still need that succession plan though !
James says
Thank you for the response- is his role/effectiveness reflected in his performance data? I’ve seen the anchoring you encountered when looking at Boli’s defensive performance against Motherwell (many have made up their mind on him and everything is confirmation bias or cognitive dissonance as a result). I try to be open minded on Brown as I have anchored “against” him and may be doing the very same thing!
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
James try this
http://celticbynumberscom.ipage.com/brown-growing-old-gracefully/
No one else does this job in the squad. He is also f course slowing down and succession planning needed
James says
Thanks- had read that when you posted but had forgotten! I think your framing of the data is pretty charitable. The question I raise is whether the team is better off with him doing what is a role sort of mandated because of his decline. No one else does that role because no one else is “incapable” of getting around the pitch! The idea of eliminating his “role” is not abstract, as we have the evidence from when he was out, and the team performance was electric. Given his clear decline in 2nd balls and recoveries, his inclusion against Cluj is particularly worrisome to me and helps explain why he looked so bad in the 1st leg.
Iain in Alberta says
Looking forward to the game tonight. Thanks for your hard work and insights. I will be interested to see how NL ‘solves’ the selection problem highlighted between Ntcham, Calmac, Ryan and broonie. Who to drop to the bench? Assuming Mikey J gets a start!
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
It’ll be no risks I think. Simunovic and Johnston in
Finn McCool says
Well, there you are now. Beaten 4-3 at home by a team which Lennon should have known how to deal with.
Do they have an analytics team at CFC? Apparently not. Apply for a job, CBN. They need you. Just imagine all that data you would have to play around with.
Whatever the question was after the Treble Treble was secured, Lennon was NOT the answer.
Tonight, he made school boy errors.
Why was the best central midfielder we have asked to play at left-back? Were no lessons learned from Ibrox? IMO, Brown was left trying to do too much.
Why was Boli left out?
Why were full backs asked to push on when everyone knew where Cluj would try and find an out ball?
Why will Lennon not play Sinclair? He defends more effectively than Johnston or Morgan and, more importantly, he scores goals and it’s obvious (to me) he wants to play.
The Celtic Board made a basic mistake when the hired Lennon.
Rodgers laid foundations in the running of a modern football team which were decimated when he left.
The Board did not address the issue of how to maintain, improve and develop these foundations.
Lennon does not have the football gravitas to attract quality to the club. Whether that is players, coaches or other backroom staff. Damien Duff found himself promoted to first team coach shortly after joining as a junior coach learning his trade.
Lennon has a low or negative marketing potential. Contrast that with Gerrard!
PR is, at best, amateurish.
CelticTV, whilst getting better, is at best, still parochial.
The money Celtic has in the Bank is capital that is not being deployed and is therefore useless.
And there is a LOT of money there!