By James Dailey
As I have made clear in prior pieces, I believe Celtic could field one of the best midfields among the remaining Europa League teams. However, this piece will focus upon what “is” rather than what could be. I will compare our likely central midfield three versus a comparable sample from the other 15 teams in Celtic’s pot. As I’ve stated in prior pieces, these benchmarks are never perfect, as positional differences, playing styles, etc. make direct comparisons impossible. Our upcoming tie versus Copenhagen is a good example, as their primary formation has been a 4-4-2, which introduces roles that are somewhat different than our midfielders’. Here is a comparison of our likely three starters versus their likely four, all versus the benchmark I’ve created:
This data includes domestic league and all European games this season. There remains some uncertainty about how Copenhagen will setup, as they seem to have lost a starting striker to a transfer this week, as well as having a couple of prominent midfielders out injured. Zeca is almost a guarantee to play in a central defensive role comparable to Brown, but the other three have played across the four midfield roles at various times. Eighteen year old (not listed) Mohammed Daramy could be a wild card, as he’s played limited minutes this season but started in their only post-break league game last week.
Important Context
When comparing Celtic to Copenhagen, some important information relative to playing style in the SPFL versus the Danish Superliga is probably helpful. For example, the league averages for Passes Per Defensive Action (PPDA- a proxy for pressing) and Challenge Intensity are 11.81 and 5.83 in the Superliga, versus 9.58 and 6.79 in the SPFL. This suggests that players, on average, have less time on the ball in the SPFL before they are engaged by an opposing player. Within the Superliga, Copenhagen rank first at 60.3% possession, 2nd in PPDA at 8.78 and 1st in Challenge Intensity at 6.8. This compares to Celtic ranking second in possession at 63.4%, and 3rd each with PPDA at 7.94 and Challenge Intensity at 6.79. So, given the context of each league, the data suggests that the teams are comparable.
One can obviously evaluate the data listed above, but I will highlight what stands out to me. Firstly, McGregor and Ntcham are legit offensive forces at this level. Hopefully any remaining skeptics within our support will further grasp how truly good of a player Callum McGregor is, as not only is he productive offensively, but does so in an efficient fashion (92% Pass Completion).
While our midfield should have a significant advantage in attack, my major concern about this matchup is the relative youth and athleticism in their midfield. Zeca is a good player, and the video I’ve watched suggests to me that his stats are indicative of his quality. His range of passing appears to be impressive and he gets around the pitch very well, which is reflected in the volume of Duels and Defensive Duels, as well as his % Won in each.
The Duel and Defensive Duel data for all their midfielders support the game video I’ve watched – they have pace and are athletic. This combination presents a potential challenge for Celtic, as if I were Copenhagen and scouted Celtic, I’d be using their midfield to press with intensity, look to turn the game into a midfield battle over 2nd balls, and whip early crosses into our box. Copenhagen have averaged 40.05 interceptions in their league games (vs 40.86 league average) this season, versus 37.55 for Celtic (42.17 league average).
This data could suggest Celtic will be in for a battle when trying to play through their midfield on the ground, and lumping balls forward in the air may play into their hands. Copenhagen has averaged 41.88 Aerial Duels per game versus 37.55 for Celtic, and this is in a league that averages just 40.86 versus 54.81 in the SPFL. Their midfielders have a height advantage overall, and are statistically superior in the air, while their centre backs are experienced veterans who are also adept in the air.
Conclusion
Celtic maintain a clear creative and attacking advantage in midfield, as both McGregor and Ntcham are well above the peer group average. At the same time, Copenhagen’s midfield is generally below average in attack.
However, the relative advantage swings in the opposite direction when it comes to defending, as each of Copenhagen’s midfielders compare favorably with the peer group and their Celtic counterparts. If Celtic can control the games and play through the midfield, then I am confident of a decisive victory in the tie. However, I see a legitimate risk of Copenhagen imposing a style of play which could be a leveler and make the tie far more uncomfortable than talent levels would suggest.
Rolling Stone says
Well, we didn’t control the midfield and we didn’t win.
I think the main issue inhibiting us is not the players but the management team. Our tactics and formation are poor. Last night in the 2nd half we watched a team all over the place. Look how well drilled Sevco were in last two games. Even Aberdeen in the last game. Then look at last night.
I worry for the next fixture at Ibrox as I can see Gerrard formulating and implementing a game plan whereas we will just rely upon having better players.
As soon as Copenhagen started to get the upper hand we should have ensured the full backs maintained tactical and positional discipline and brought Brown and McGregor back to sit as a deep lying midfield 2. We left a huge amount of room between our back four and midfield resulting in overloads all over the place.
James Dailey says
Thanks as always for reading and commenting.
I’ve rewatched the entire game and the 2nd half twice. We actually went to a relatively flat 4-4-2 when Moi came on for Ntcham, which I found very curious given that I believe that to be the first time we’ve setup like that this season. We then went 3-5-2 when Jozo came on for Frimpong. A lot of discussion about how we got disorganized when Brown went off, but only stretch I noticed was when Frimpong was off injured for a couple of minutes and Forrest didn’t seem to recognize that had happened- resulted in some scrambling and chaos. Otherwise thought our shape ex-fullbacks was ok.
I thought both Frimpong and Hayes’ positioning was very inconsistent. Having said that, and despite all their possession in the 2nd half, they didn’t create much in the way of quality chances.
As I feared, we struggled with their athleticism in midfield and turned the ball over a good bit more than usual. Lots of sloppy passing in final third as well.
Don’t understand why we went 4-4-2 out of nowhere when outside of the comedy of errors around the goal, we had been pretty sound defensively in the 4-3-3. Be interesting to see how we setup with Christie out and Brown possibly as well. I am guessing 3-5-2 with Bitton at 6 and McGregor/Ntcham as 8’s.
Rolling Stone says
I think tactics and formation cost us again last night and not for the first time this season. While we have some gifted players who can threaten going forward, we are a complete shambles in setting up a solid formation and reacting to the opposition’s tactics.
See link to last night’s chances- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IO8SR6WRj6s
In the first half I think all our good chances came in the first 15 minutes. I assume this was on account of our intensity when compared to Copenhagen’s rustiness having not played competitively for the last 2 months.
Copenhagen made a tactical change midway through the first half by dropping their striker (Santos) back into midfield to provide more protection. After that, chances for us did dry up (we still threatened on occasion in the 2nd half on the break). I also think the head injury to Jullien allowed them to re-group and re-set.
However, look at some of their opportunities and the shape/structure of the team:
2:16 into the highlights is Copenhagen’s chance in the first half. When they win the ball back it is near enough a 5 v 3 in their favour and when Jullien (and Frimpong) step out to make the tackle it is a 4 v 2.Christie, a midfielder and not a winger, is playing very narrow, letting their full back run free. Frimpong gets attracted to the ball, even though Jullien and Christie are in attendance and so leaves space for their full back to get the shot off.
2:25 – Worst of all Hayes is around 30 yards out from our goal when the shot is taken. Their RW has a tap in if a rebound falls his way. A catalogue of defensive errors stemming from a complete lack of shape.
2:43- their goal.
Once again, we lose the ball and it leads to a 4 v 2 in their favour and both our full backs are pushing up the park and are far too wide. leaving their wingers acres of spaces to come inside and attack the space. Midfield again all ahead of the ball.
We really need to work on our shape and tactics. We cannot be so ill-disciplined at this level of competition. In the SPFL everyone can flood forward as most teams do not have the quality to punish us. Why the full backs are being told to bomb forward is completely beyond me.
Rolling Stone says
Meant to say that this was a comment I made following the game. I think it chimes with your thoughts.
I agree with you that for the home leg we will likely see a 3-5-2 with Bitton at 6 and McGregor/Ntcham as 8’s.
I feel we are forced into using this formation as Moi looks unfit and off the pace and we will be missing Christie and probably Brown as well.
Iain in Alberta says
I believe NL will set up as a 4231 with Forrest Tom R and Moi supporting Eddy. If that proves fruitless then we will go with the more open 352 bringing Griffiths on in the second half. I also watched the away game twice and Ntcham gave the ball away 6 times! Which I hadn’t noticed when watching the first time. Olly was inconsistent at best. I hope Rogic has a great game as we are getting thin on the ground in the middle of the park. I expect we will overpower their defence as a number of our players have had a break from two games a week.