Article by James Dailey
I started a deep dive into analyzing Scott Brown’s age-based performance decline this past summer, which was catalyzed by an exchange with Alan in the comments section of Celticbynumbers prior to the first Cluj qualifier. My “eye test” was telling me that Brown was looking well off the pace and was worrying that Lennon was “building the team” around a 34-year-old midfielder who could be hitting the wall. Subsequently, Lennon stated in public that Brown had been carrying and playing through a toe injury, and his form definitely picked up heading into September. However, my digging and research continued.
Part of my analysis was to aggregate and calculate SPFL league averages for all midfielders, and defensive midfielders specifically, and then compare Brown’s performance statistics. I also created a comparable “benchmark” using peer group central midfielders for Europa League clubs. This analysis resulted in a lot of observations, but I’ll highlight a few big ones:
- Brown’s offensive production is in line with the average of non-Celtic and Rangers midfielders. Basically, I calculated an average excluding Stephen Davis, as his passing stats are so positive that they skew the overall sample. Relative to his Europa League peer group, Brown is way below average offensively.
- Brown’s defensive production remains very good compared to his SPFL peers, but as Alan has chronicled, he has been in steady decline. That decline has taken him from what had been an elite defender without peer in the SPLF to being very good and now within a pack of other SPFL players. Compared to his Europa League peer group, Brown’s decline has taken him from the elite top to the middle of the pack – i.e. about average.
- Holy crap does this guy Liam Donnelly’s defensive data stand out as if he some kind of roving midfield monster!
The two defensive metrics where Brown still stands out as excellent are interceptions and recoveries. But let’s take a look and compare Brown and Donnelly’s defensive stats this season so far:
Brown’s overall passing stats are better than Donnelly’s, Donnelly turns the ball over a little more than Brown, and neither do much creatively with their passing. But defensively and general movement around the pitch? It really is not a contest at this point, and Donnelly’s stats are vastly superior to anyone else in the SPFL. Donnelly is also 23 years old, 2 inches taller and about 20 lbs. heavier than Brown.
If Brown’s supposed role is to protect the back four as a sort of modern day stopper, then the stats show that Donnelly is doing that role significantly better. And before anyone is tempted to make arguments about the difference in teams, possession, tactics, I’ve calculated all the stats adjusting for possession, Passes Per Defensive Action (PPDA), etc., and Donnelly’s lead over Brown is even larger in most metrics.
I think against a lot of the SPFL there is a legitimate debate about whether this stopper role is even needed, and Ismaila Soro’s stats suggest he will bring a vastly upgraded creative skillset vs what Brown offers.
However, if a stopper is to be used, then Celtic could do a lot worse than Liam Donnelly. In fact, we already are.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
James – thanks for this.
I would also point out that Donnelly’s disciplinary record has to be the worst in the SPFL – 9 YC and 1 RC in 15 appearances. He gets a 0.62 cards every 90 mins – imagine if he played for Celtic!
More positively, his scoring contribution is 0.41 per 90m, with 5 goals and 1 assist.
I still think it’s a bonkers rumour!
James Dailey says
Agreed – surprised to even hear this being a rumor. He is just a really interesting player statistically and plays like a throwback stopper in many ways. I think his stats also help highlight how great Brown was, as he produced similarly to what Donnelly is doing now but with more skill, but also how Brown is now more of an ordinary player from a production perspective.
I think Celtic can and should do better than either player!
Tommy McQuillan says
In my opinion he’s still the best at what he does in the country. You can make stats fit whatever premise you want, ok he might be slowing down a bit but he’s 34 now. I’ve been saying for years we need to be finding someone to take his place and apparently Ismail Soro is that man. Broony has been the beating heart of the side since he came in 2007 and we wouldn’t have won nearly as much without him. It’s only natural that he’s not the player he was and he’ll be able to help Soro out in the position with all his experience. I haven’t seen enough of the boy Donnelly to form an opinion, only time will tell if we’re signing the right players but Nick Hammond has shown he can pick a player so far.
Monsters of Bumfluff says
Donnelly is a good Irish surname.
Sign him up.
doc says
All those stats are very well and good but id Donnelly a leader of men like Broony is off and on the pitch?? nowhere near!
Broony is as still can be our best skipper since McNeill..nowhere near our greatest footballer but unsurpassed in the skipper role and no amount of fancy stats and figures can paint that
James Dailey says
Thank you for reading and commenting.
I don’t disagree with anything you’ve stated but believe that leaders of men can age with dignity and accept a lesser on-field role for the betterment of the team. Brown has played 98% of minutes this season, which is crazy even if he wasn’t 34. McNeill wasn’t a central midfielder- wish Brown were bigger because he would transition to be an excellent centre half….but he isn’t.
dr. ramesh says
What is very noticeable is how Brown uses his experience. He reads the game extremely well, and is more often than not in the right place at the right time and has calmness to deal with most situations without batting an eyelid (at least in the SPFL). What is also noticeable is that close tussles that he would have won last year (SPFL wrestling) are becoming harder for him and he is starting to get beaten by the younger, stronger man. But he adapts and avoids those situations in general.
Saying that, this season and next we need his successor(s) to step forward or be brought into the team. I mean some one who plays in his position and someone to lead the team.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
the trend is less of nearly everything except line breaking passes (and goals) oddly.
dr. ramesh says
Yeah goals! He really made sure we got through the ‘Brendan leaving shock’ at the end of last season.
What I wanted to say is that before Brown would relish a tussle and usually come out on top but now he just is often in the right place and cuts out move sometimes without even having to tackle or intercept, something that stats will never show.
We still need a replacement soon mind.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Actually interception and recoveries stats do give insight into precisely that.
Duncan says
Soro is the obvious replacement.
Hence why we are in the process of signing him.
He has all the attributes needed to do a good job in there and his range of passing is far super to Brown from the available footage online.
Certainly more inclined to pass it forward and launch a quick counter..
He and McGregor should compliment each other well I think.
Don’t know where you get this building a side round Brown from?
They’ve been grooming McGregor for the Captaincy for a while now and he’s also been the main link between defence and attack now for some considerable time in his new role as the Regista,
James Dailey says
Lennon stated as much on April 2nd last year and it was widely reported in the media:
https://www.67hailhail.com/news/neil-lennon-wants-build-celtic-team-around-scott-brown/
Agree with you on Soro but need one more, in my opinion, for depth if Bitton is now primarily a centre half.
Nick66 says
When i t comes to the Broonie debate i offer this. His game is going to slow, his stats decline but, his heart is second to none. So yes, we need a DM like Broonie of old play wise, however, that has to come with the leadership, the heart that stats don’t tell. Find that and 20 is ours.
Duncan says
Spot on but his role now no longer requires him to make lung bursting runs.
When we do need that approach the player to replace him is already at the Club.
Callum McGregor deployed as a Regista/ Deep Lying Playmaker transforms the role of the guy in there.
Last Season theMidfield under Rodgers had become stagnant with Brown and Ntcham but when both became unavailable through Suspension and injury Rodgers was forced to deploy McGregor , Christie-Rogic in there and the result was a far more dynamic Celtic.
Lennon is currently going through a process of preparing McGregor as Club Captain and I think his role in there as a Regista rather than a Holding Defensive Mid like Brown will change.
All Registas however need a wingman Busquets /Xavi Gattuso/Pirlo Motta/Verratti Christie fulfilled this role during this period as he is more inclined to track back,tackle and increased work rate by comparison to Rogic so as a result this combination worked a treat as all 3 are capable passers and movers with the ball.
The lad Sorro looks like he could play the wingman role to great effect and I think a Midfield of
McGregor Sorro Christie and Rogic in a Diamond could be VERY interesting as Sorro brings far more pace in there than Brown and his range of passing far superior from what is available online.
I think Brown could still be around in 18 months but perhaps playing far less games than at present.
A gentle handing over of the Guard if you like rather than an abrupt ending.