After struggling to break down Dundee, Lennon spoke about changing Celtic’s “slow and pedestrian” style of play. When he returned as manager, he initially spoke of changing little. So, four games in, what has been the impact of Lennon on Celtic’s style of play?
Lennon has had three tough away games as well as a home game against in-form Aberdeen and the results have been mainly successful.
But what of the style of play?
Very simplistically and contrary to Lennon’s aim of Celtic being more direct they are averaging 534 passes per 90m under Lennon compared to an average 540 under Rodgers, only a 1% difference. Indeed, Celtic have averaged 69% possession in the last four matches compared to 66% under Rodger’s.
But there is evidence of a more direct approach in terms of getting the ball into the box quicker. Crosses attempted has risen from 15.8 per game to 23.2, a 47% increase. Unfortunately, this is leading to LESS in shots on target (5 down from 6.8) and less shots within the opposition area (9.2 down from 10.5).
Overall, Celtic’s attacking potency has declined in the last four matches:
What this shows is under Lennon Celtic are creating less chances and the chances created are of lower quality.
But is this down to a change in style?
The problem (such as it is – the results have been good) appears to be a dip in creativity. Assessing the Packing data shows this:
Celtic have achieved significantly less passes that take out opponents (down 19%) and only 8% of all passes take opponents out the game.
The net result of all this is a marked decrease in Final Third Effectiveness. This measure is the % of time possession in the final third results in something positive like a shot or corner being won. Celtic are achieving a positive outcome with 24% of final third incursions compared to 32% under Rodgers.
Is this down to Lennon?
I’d posit the decline in final third effectiveness and specifically getting the ball forward beyond opponents and creating good quality chances may be partly due to personnel (or lack of).
Celtic’s top 4 Pack Passers (per 90m) are:
- Ntcham 18.39
- Christie 13.66
- McGregor 13.48
- Tierney 13.36
The first two have been unavailable to Lennon and the latter two hampered by recovery from injury. We know Celtic have been at their most fluent with a midfield of McGregor, Christie and Rogic, not a line up available at this time.
I suspect that this is more the reason for the recent decline in attacking potency.
Look, it’s a very small sample and results have been positive. Celtic have toughed out three away wins.
It is to be hoped fluency improves with the return of the creatives (I seem to write this every season!).
The Great God Pan says
You have my thanks for this most recent analysis.
I always look forward to your articles, which are very reasoned, interesting, informative and backed up by evidence. This allows considered and objective judgement in forming conclusions. As a scientist, I fully appreciate this stable approach to enquiry.
This contrasts with many other blogs which can be merely opinionated and subjective.
However, yours does exactly as it says and “shows a love of Celtic backed up by numbers”.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Very kind thank you
Duncan says
I think you have highlighted the main issue regarding McGregor Christie and Rogic.
These 3 undoubtedly changed the dynamic when they were assembled together from Rosenborg onward.
I also think we have faced 3 sides who given us real problems under Rodgers previously and Dundee basically parked the bus and defended from about 35 yards from their own 6 yard box for the bulk of the game.
In fact they were so deep Kenny Miller was playing in a position on the Park normally reserved for a defensive midfielder!
4 tough games made even tougher by the fact our squad had Rodgers walk out on them on the cusp of another Treble without so much as a goodbye or look lads I’m thinking of going.
The injuries and subsequent disruptions to the squad and staff cannot be overlooked either as Lenny took on a massive job of getting these guys focused again.
The opposition probably smelled a bit of blood especially Hearts and Hibs who as I said previously have given us our fair share of worries without theses distractions.
We dug deep and got the job done.
By the time Dundee came round they were fully aware hat despite our issues we were going to give them a very,very hard time of it.
We did but without teeing then apart.
I don’t think we have been spectacular up front this Season.
The loss of Dembele ,Griffiths and Édouard through injuries etc has created a situation where we have been reliant on wingers operating as Centre Forwards.
This is not ideal.
Édouard is not at his best yet and although Weah and Burke had an early impact there is a sense of “headless chicken” about them as they career around the pitch at Mach 10 with little or no control over what they are attempting to achieve.
For Lenny to be judged fairly I think we need to see what happens when he has a full compliment of first team regulars available and a settled squad.
If we have Boyata Benkovic Ajer and Simunovic fit I think we may see a move to a back 3
If we have McGregor Brown Rogic Christie Ntcham fit far more flexibility in terms of shape and approach from Midfield – and perhaps more importantly greater control in games with more emphasis on speed and movement .
Up top Édouard Bayo and Griffiths available will create an opportunity to go with 2 perhaps even a 3 in games we are dominating.
Lastly all our wide players fit and available which in turn will create an opportunity to keep the pace and pressure up for an entire 90 minutes.
Lenny is more pragmatic in his approach he has proven this at Celtic and Hibs he will make changes to suit the opposition when needs be without making wholesale changes and disrupting the side.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Agree with that re the disruption caused by injuries but Celtic have the least cause to bemoan was that give squad size/cost.
I also think we’ll see a win at all costs approach from Lennon who presumably has his future to play for. Bad news is it won’t be pretty . Good news is I expect grinding wins!
Duncan says
Hello again Alan.
Just going through some of these older replies/posts bud and caught yer reply.
I totally agree with the assumption that Lenny is approaching these games with more pragmatism than the previous incumbent.
He’s caught between a rock and a hard place regarding just how much he is going to change things.
The priority has to be winning the Title and trying to win the Cup.
He’s won 5 out of 7 but the last game we could have/should have won comfortably.
Poor finishing coupled with good goalkeeping and stout backs to the wall defending resulted in a draw.
We needed a win bit a draw is still a point towards that line.
Regarding the squad I don’t think Rodgers managed the rotation very well and I think as a result it has had a negative impact on several key men.
Tierney McGregor and Sinclair.
All 3 are key men in a System that we have been deploying more or less since Deila arrived and implemented it.
To alter it at this time would be extremely risky but against Livingston he did exactly that in an attempt to dominate them and put pressure on them.
3-4-3 has seldom been seen under Rodgers as has 3-5-2 which is strange given his use of both at Liverpool and Swansea previously?
I digress the thing is fans are getting on Lennys case due to the nature of the play whilst ignoring the fact it is still getting results.
I believe success under Rodgers on the Domestic front has given some within our numbers a Superiority Complex akin to the Hun in the 90’s.
Success breeds its own issues and perhaps cantering to Leagues for 7 Seasons and winning Cups is finally taking a toll.
Neil Lennon came in at short notice and took on a side on the cusp of another Treble.
He’s had lift them after Rodgers dropped them like a shit down the lavvy get them focused and meanwhile take on some difficult ties against side who have given us issues under normal circumstances with a full fit squad to choose from.
He’s not lost a tie yet.
In fact we are 3 points better off in the League than when he took over and a round further in the Cup.
I really don’t see what the issue is.
Once the League is won then and only then will you see him stamping his own mark on the side.
Incidentally are you aware that of all the Managers who Managed Celtic for a Season or more he has the 2nd best Win Ratio behind MON?
Perhaps those panning him might want to think about that.
SFTB says
Good Sensible stuff
I agree it is a small sample and with an injury disrupted squad and a manager who needs to earn his future. All of this will combine with an angsty- support desperate to see 8iar, to a preference for direct football over patient, passing stuff.
Like you, I expect more of the same till the league is won.
Interesting, how superior N’tcham’s figures are. I wonder if the support sees it this way?
Caolis1962 says
Regards N’tcham, I think we can safely say the majority of the support do NOT see it that way.
I like him a lot, but I genuinely wouldn’t have rated him that much in front for that stat.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
http://celticbynumberscom.ipage.com/why-ntcham-matters/
Duncan says
I think Ntcham will be punted in the Summer.
I just don’t think his game is suited to the frenetic nature of our game he’s a different player when given space and time on the ball.
Better suited to Spanish or Portuguese style of football
Duncan says
Seen both sides of Ntchams play today v the Huns.
Given space and time he can be highly effective.(first half)
Close him down early and put pressure on him he tends to lose possession and drift out of games.(second half)
Not cut out for the Scottish game is more suited to Spain ,Portugal etc where players generally get more space and time to operate.
Duncan says
Ntcham was poor tonight again.
He loses possession far too easy when pressurised.