James Forrest recently signed a new deal to 2019 and today the Herald proclaims the second coming. Has Rodgers worked a miracle?
(Note I look at the last 3 seasons for detailed performance data as this is what I have personally collected but some overall career summary data to start (source Transfermarkt)).
Forrest Appearance Data
Season | Total Mins | Games Started | 90 mins | Used Sub | Unused Sub | Not In Squad | Injured |
2009/10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
2010/11 | 1479 | 17 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
2011/12 | 3144 | 34 | 24 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
2012/13 | 1844 | 18 | 13 | 11 | 0 | 17 | 13 |
2013/14 | 1991 | 20 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 22 |
2014/15 | 1511 | 16 | 6 | 13 | 2 | 14 | 16 |
2015/16 | 1805 | 19 | 7 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 0 |
2016/17 | 1953 | 24 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
Lennon played Forrest when available and even if on the bench always used him. His career under Lennon stalled in 2013/14 as injuries, a feature of the previous 2 seasons, reached their peak and he missed 22 matches. Until that point Forrest’s career and productivity was developing on an upward trajectory.
When Deila took over he was keen to manage Forrest carefully to mitigate the risk of further injury, yet despite that season 2014/15 was also injury hit and Deila was also increasingly happy to leave him out. Deila had an injury free Forrest in 2015/16 but left him out the squad 13 times, and did not bring him off the bench another 11 times. Forrest’s form tanked as he posted his worst ever return for goals and assists (see table below).
Rodgers seems to trust Forrest and although there has been another break for injury, Forrest has already played more minutes than either of the last 2 seasons and we are only 60% through the season. He has only been left out the squad for 1 match when fit, and started 24 out of 36 games.
Forrest Positional Data
Season | Mins at AM R | Mins at AM L |
2014/15 | 1112 | 368 |
2015/16 | 942 | 863 |
2016/17 | 1396 | 553 |
Forrest’s poorest season also coincided with Deila playing him as an attacking left winger nearly as much as on the right. Rodgers has been flexible with Forrest and he has had shifts as a central striker and No. 10, but has predominantly played on the right this season.
Forrest Goal / Assist Data
Season | Total Mins | Goals | Assists | Goal/Assist 90 | Mins per Goal / Assist |
2009/10 | 10 | 1 | 0 | NA | NA |
2010/11 | 1479 | 3 | 1 | 0.24 | 370 |
2011/12 | 3144 | 9 | 7 | 0.46 | 196 |
2012/13 | 1844 | 4 | 8 | 0.58 | 154 |
2013/14 | 1991 | 7 | 5 | 0.54 | 166 |
2014/15 | 1511 | 4 | 4 | 0.48 | 189 |
2015/16 | 1805 | 2 | 2 | 0.2 | 451 |
2016/17 | 1953 | 6 | 9 | 0.69 | 130 |
2016/17 is proving to be Forrest’s most productive season with a record number of assists already, and a goal or assist every 130 minutes, his best by 24 minutes.
Forrest’s attacking output for the last 3 seasons can be compared :
2014/15 – James Forrest – Attacking
2015/16 – James Forrest – Attacking
2016/17 – James Forrest – Attacking
This season has seen career best productivity in terms of goals and assists (0.69 per game). Both individually (goals 0.3 per 90mins and assists 0.4 per 90mins) are career bests. This is despite no great improvement on the following compared to 2014/15:
- Shot Accuracy
- Chance Creation
- Successful Dribbles
- Number of completed passes (was 37 in 2014/15 and 30 this season)
Is this a hot streak or is he making better decisions? Playing with the confidence of the new manager in his preferred position (AM R) and being encouraged inside into dangerous areas closer to goal may be material here.
Summary
Whether you would say he is reborn, it could be argued his development has picked up again after 3 seasons where first injury and then working for a manager who did not seem to trust him stalled progress.
Forrest was stating to regress under Lennon and last season was hopefully the career nadir. Rodgers trusts him, is using him predominantly on the right and his form is arguably the best of his career. Can he maintain his current form and put together the first full season since 2011/12 when he played the equivalent of 35 matches? Is his current spell a temporary hot streak of form or the restart of his upward development shown between 2010 and 2013? Ultimately time will be the judge and we will revisit Forrest at the seasons end.
SFTB says
Love this stuff.
Puts facts and stats in the way of the judgementalists.
James was always a good player. Injury and a sustained spell in the team produces the form.
Long may it continue
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Heh SFTB recognise your name from CQN. Thanks – yours is the 1st comment for which I am grateful.
Tomorrow lets see how Roberts compares to Forrest.
Excathedra says
Very impressive analysis.
However 36 assists for a winger and 36 goals over 8 years is not my idea of reborn or impressive.
He has under BR performed much better but that’s because we have slowly lowered the bar of expectation,so a marginal performance is now deemed as ” Re-Born “.
Here is a statistic. At no time over the past 8 years can I recall a clamour from the SMSM to sell Young James,if he is so integral then that is a contradiction to his importance,given they are trying to sell Dembelle and Tierney who have literally months of appearances to JF’s years.
Tidy enough on occasions but is a contradiction to the high energy pressing defending game required by BR,the same policy which has done for Commons and perhaps Biton.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Agree the raw numbers are “low” but it has to be seen in respect of minutes played. This has been Forrests problem either through injury or latterly not being trusted by Deila. Here is a comparison for nothing – Sinclair – who we would all agree is a top class player is averaging 0.82 goals or assists per 90 minutes. That is the expectation bar right there – maybe Roberts is the one?
The Exiled Tim says
Good stuff, great to read proper stats without any bias.
HH
Jim Payne says
Great stuff. Lot to take in but James looks to be heafing for his most productive season. Keep them coming.
jinky58 says
if we sold James Forrest tomorrow how much would he be missed, not at all in my opinion a bang average player who has had too many injury problems over the years.