I outlined a framework to assess the impact of Honest Mistakes in the SPFL..
I showed the impact on Expected Points gained / lost due to Honest Mistakes in July and August.
Today, we cover the rest of the season to date.
I am indebted to the Yorkshire Whistler for providing expert judgement of these key potentially game changing moments and providing an unbiased assessment of the correct decision.
I do not always agree with his conclusions mainly because a) I am biased; b) I do not know the Laws of the Game intimately as he does; and c) I do not have experience of refereeing football matches.
You may also relate to those constraints. Be honest!
As described in the framework, where an in-game decision is deemed incorrect, there is an Expected Points impact for the “wronged” team and this is indicated.
I’ll keep a running tally.
Here we go.
19/09/21 The Rangers vs Motherwell
Date | 19/09/21 | Referee | Steven McLean |
Game | TRFC v Motherwell | Game Minute | 12th |
Incident | The Rangers open the scoring through Sakala |
Outcome | Goal awarded |
Evidence | SPFL: The Season So VAR – The Celtic Exchange |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | A tight call but Sakala is half a yard offside when the ball is flicked on to him by his team mate.
Verdict: Incorrect decision. Goal should have been disallowed for offside. |
Expected Points
Outcome |
The Rangers +0.7 xPts |
25/09/21 Dundee vs The Rangers
Date | 25/09/21 | Referee | Bobby Madden |
Game | Dundee v TRFC | Game Minute | 59th |
Incident | McMullan brought down by McLaughlin in the box |
Outcome | Penalty to Dundee and Yellow Card for McLaughlin |
Evidence | SPFL: The Season So VAR – The Celtic Exchange |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Clearly there is no doubt about the decision to award the penalty for the challenge. The question here is: was a yellow card suitable punishment or should a red card have been shown for the DOGSO (denying obvious goal scoring opportunity)?
Law 12: Fouls & Misconduct states: Where a player commits an offence against an opponent within their own penalty area which denies an opponent an obvious goal-scoring opportunity and the referee awards a penalty kick, the offender is cautioned if the offence was an attempt to play the ball; in all other circumstances (e.g. holding, pulling, pushing, no possibility to play the ball etc.) the offending player must be sent off. McLaughlin makes a genuine attempt to block the expected shot by spreading his legs and making himself as wide as possible. He makes no attempt to intentionally trip the oncoming striker and his leg is maintained on the ground throughout the blocking motion. Verdict: Correct decision. Penalty and yellow card issued. |
Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
26/09/21 Celtic vs Dundee United
Incident 1
Date | 26/09/21 | Referee | Kevin Clancy |
Game | Celtic v Dundee Utd | Game Minute | 14th |
Incident | Fuchs challenges McCarthy |
Outcome | Foul awarded and Yellow Card to Fuchs |
Evidence | SPFL: The Season So VAR – The Celtic Exchange |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Having watched this one several times over and you can make a case for both a yellow card sanction as Fuchs clearly commits a reckless challenge but also on watching the replay, the studs are high and by missing the ball, Fuchs leaves himself open to a dismissal for a challenge with excessive force/brutality. In real time I expected a caution, but with the hindsight of the video replay, a sending off would have been justified.
Verdict – Incorrect Decision. Red card/Sending off offence. |
Expected Points
Outcome |
Celtic -0.35 xPts |
Incident 2
Date | 26/09/21 | Referee | Kevin Clancy |
Game | Celtic v Dundee Utd | Game Minute | 22nd |
Incident | Starfelt goes down under challenge outside box
Clark goes down in penalty area under challenge from Carter-Vickers |
Outcome | No fouls awarded |
Evidence | https://twitter.com/mikejp1967/status/1442443839218855940?s=21 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | (Having reviewed Ref Watch with Dermot Gallagher)
I feel Mr Gallagher is being quite diplomatic and complimentary of the referee when he refers to ‘consistency’ of the match referees decision making. From the referees perspective, there could well be an element in his thought process of ‘I’ve not given the first so I’m not giving the second one either’. Indeed, both challenges appear to be similar in nature. One thing not highlighted by Mr Gallagher, is the referees relatively poor positioning. As the Dundee Utd player advances into the penalty box, the referee is still a good 20yds behind play and not in the preferred wider-angle position. For me crucially, and as consequence of his distanced position, there are 3 players obscured his view of the challenge inside the box at the instance it is made. I suspect this played a part in the penalty decision not being given. Judging the challenge in isolation, a penalty kick should have been awarded. However, I also feel the initial challenge on the Celtic defender was also worthy of a defensive free kick decision. The Dundee Utd player appears to clatter into the defenders back in an attempt to play the ball. Verdict – Incorrect on field decisions. Defensive free kick should have been given, negating the penalty not given decision. |
Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
Incident 3
Date | 26/09/21 | Referee | Kevin Clancy |
Game | Celtic v Dundee Utd | Game Minute | 45nd |
Incident | Ajeti scores for Celtic |
Outcome | Goal disallowed for foul by Ajeti |
Evidence | SPFL: The Season So VAR – The Celtic Exchange |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | From an initial shot that rebounds off the crossbar, Ajeti is deemed to have impeded the Dundee Utd’ defender attempt to head the ball.
The referee is well positioned here just outside the penalty area and has an unobscured view. He believes Ajeti’s left arm nudges the defender in the back and although there seems to be an over exaggeration of the level of contact, I also believe this was the correct decision. The nudge in the lower back would be enough to knock the defender off balance, as he is already in motion to head the ball away. Verdict: Correct decision. Goal ruled out for infringement. |
Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
Incident 4
Date | 26/09/21 | Referee | Kevin Clancy |
Game | Celtic v Dundee Utd | Game Minute | 73rd |
Incident | Abada is challenged for a high ball by Siegrist the DU keeper |
Outcome | No foul awarded |
Evidence | SPFL: The Season So VAR – The Celtic Exchange |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Again, another decision that is not clear cut. As the ball is played over the top of the Dundee Utd defence, keeper Siegrist catches Abada with his studs as he heads the ball clear.
In real time my first thought was no foul and having watched the challenge in slow motion I am still giving the keeper the benefit of the doubt. His eyes and gaze appear to maintained only on the ball as he goes to head the ball away. The studs slightly catch Abada but this is as Siegrist’s body motion is already on the downwards trajectory and I believe to be accidental. Verdict: Correct decision. No foul |
Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
03/10/21 The Rangers vs Hibernian
Incident 1
Date | 03/10/21 | Referee | Nick Walsh |
Game | TRFC v Hibs | Game Minute | 5th |
Incident | Lundstram challenges Doig (?) |
Outcome | No foul awarded |
Evidence | SPFL: The Season So VAR – The Celtic Exchange |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | This kind of challenge can really split opinion. There is clearly an element of the Rangers player stretching for the ball here and naturally the studs have to come off the ground as part of the leg extension.
There are a couple of key, subtle differences to the Porteous challenge. Firstly, I would say Lundstram is still in control of his body, the tackle is a downwards motion aimed clearly at the ball. Also this is a ball first, rather than ball/man at same time, kind of challenge. Verdict – Correct decision – Based on clearly winning the ball and without an element of ‘going over top’ I believe this was a no-foul challenge. |
Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
Incident 2
Date | 03/10/21 | Referee | Nick Walsh |
Game | TRFC v Hibs | Game Minute | 30th |
Incident | Porteous challenge on Aribo |
Outcome | Foul awarded and Red Card for Porteous |
Evidence | SPFL: The Season So VAR – The Celtic Exchange |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Here the Hibs defender is at full stretch and in real time it’s not clear what contact is made with either ball or man.
Having watched the replay, it soon becomes apparent this is quite a dangerous lunge with all of the defender’s body off the ground as part of the tackling motion. The studs appear to go over the top of the ball and the Rangers player could have been seriously injured had more contact happened. I would deem this a tackle with excessive force that endangered the other players safety. Verdict – correct decision, sending off offence |
Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
As always, I personally didn’t agree on all counts but I bow to, and accept neutral, expert opinion on these matters.
A slightly better month for SPFL officialdom. Of the 8 incidents in this period, 5 were deemed to be correct outcomes.
Of the 3 incorrect outcomes, the Expected Points tallies were affected in 2 decisions thus:
What have we learned so far? Well, SPFL referees do make a lot of mistakes on crucial decisions, However, many of the decisions that get social media excited (e.g. the Porteous sending off) are correct.
Only 8 games into a crucial SPFL campaign, and 6 major calls have impacted the points either Celtic or The Rangers could be expected to achieve.
At the moment, based on xPts, Celtic have 1.4 less points than expected due to Honest Mistakes and The Rangers have 1.24 more points than expected.
Over a 38-game season, that differential, if these patterns continue, could see another 4.7 points advantage to The Rangers making 7.3 points advantage total. But very early days and the trend could of course change.
We all told by experts that these Honest Mistakes will even themselves out over the season and net/net the impact will be neutral. That remains the expectation.
More when the action returns.
James Barr says
Thanks for that. Good stuff . I wish the Yorkshire Whistler was a referee in Scotland!
Duncan says
Lundstrum has launched himself with both feet off the ground and his full body weight heading towards the man with the ball.
He’s under no control at this point other than the shape of his body.
If Doig plants his leading leg that’s a broken leg all day every day.
https://www.glasgowtimes.co.uk/sport/19625450.rangers-ace-john-lundstrams-tackle-josh-doig-addressed-ryan-porteous-red-card/
Jhimmyt78 says
Agree. Double standards. Simple.
Jhimmyt78 says
I disagree with the Lundstram decision. Although he wins the ball, its simply unacceptable nowadays. Its a wreckless lunge with 2 feet off the ground.
What about the Carter-Vickers “barge” in the DDUTD game. That was touch and go to say the least and would probably even up the averages.
I’m a celtic fan, I can’t believe that was not given under the circumstances. Considering the outcome of this independent analysis, are we too paranoid?
Stein always said, if you’re good enough, the refs decision shouldn’t impact the result. HH
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Thanks. Whether you or i disagree with the Lundstram decision is moot as the expert has spoken!
As regards the CCV challenge in the Dundee Utd game that is covered in the article. The foul on Starfelt precedes the CCV challenge and should have resulted in a Celtic free kick.
I utterly reject the notion we have to be better than everyone else to negate poor decisions. That is excusing poor performance or worse.
John mcghee says
Scottish refs are biased and its being going on for years i wish wee Fergus Mcann was here today because the corrupt hampden would have been sacked in 2012 when the biggest cheats in scottish rfc 1872 got liquidated the sfa spfl.are full of freemason and masons.
(Edited by CBN)
Jim says
John McGhee Says:-
Scottish refs are biased and its being going on for years i wish wee Fergus Mcann was here today because the corrupt hampden would have been sacked in 2012 when the biggest cheats in scottish rfc 1872 got liquidated the sfa spfl.are full of freemason and masons.
(Edited by CBN)
You Are Damn Tooting, Jonh.
Jim says
John