Celtic scored 147 goals in winning a treble last season, in all competitions. 2.77 per game. This season was always going to be some kind of transition from Ange Postecoglou to Brendan Rodgers and we do not have to rehash the recruitment story. Those goals came from shots rated with an overall xG of 139. … [continue reading]
xG
Productivity Gaps
I wrote yesterday on the overall team expected goals differential and how it is trending at +2 xG per game, therefore set up well for the end of the season. What of this group of players and their own expected scoring contributions (xSC) versus last season? A reminder: scoring contribution is goals + assists. Therefore, … [continue reading]
Plotting the Difference
One of the standard metrics I track is the difference between Celtic’s expected goals scored and conceded. The rule of thumb is that the higher this value, the less likely that normal football variance factors such as opposition goalkeepers, poor finishing, bad luck, and refereeing, will impact the likely result adversely. A differential of around … [continue reading]
Why Rodgers’ Approach Is Right In Europe
With the European campaign effectively over for another season, the recriminations have begun. Everyone has got it in the neck from someone. To my observation, you select the party you like the least and heap the blame on them. Cognitive Dissonance rules ok? As mentioned on this week’s Huddle Breakdown, I’d like to call out … [continue reading]
Potter and xG Philosophy
90% of data analysis is cribbing good ideas from others, and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise! In that spirit! This tweet from @eduinlatimer caught my eye this morning not just for the excellent topic and analysis but for the reaction amongst other data analysts. Ostensibly it is noting a potential trend whereby Graham Potter … [continue reading]
Oh’s Challenge
With Giorgos Giakoumakis leaving, I thought I’d share the numbers on goals and expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes. The Greek scored 26 goals in 52 appearances and was an excellent fit for the requirements of a striker in Ange Postecoglou’s system. Fanfare over, here it is (data from this season – all competitions): Note … [continue reading]
Good / Bad / Lucky / Unlucky
Whilst Celtic are getting soundly thrashed in the World Cup Break Cup (see any edition of the Daily Record for details), a reversion to a time when actual football was played. A regular feature is the Good/Bad/Lucky/Unlucky grid. In essence this plots teams’ average goal difference with the difference between that and the expected goals … [continue reading]
Expected Brutality
On this week’s Huddle Breakdown, @jucojames explained that Celtic have given up more than two xG against in a string of matches against top class opposition over the last season and a bit. Matches away in AZ Alkmaar, in the Europa League against Real Betis and Bayer 04 Leverkusen, plus this seasons Champions League matches … [continue reading]
What To Expect
Despite defeat at St Mirren, those that produce Expected Points models are still indicating Celtic have an expected lead over their opponents. @TheGersReport takes the underlying performance data and projects the season forwards on the basis that results will track to that data. His model has Celtic winning the league by 24 points! Note this … [continue reading]
Why Celtic Should Win The Title
A regular reference point for performance discussion on The Huddle Breakdown (subscribe and never miss an episode) is xG difference. That is: the difference between Expected Goals For and Expected Goals Against. The higher the difference in your favour, the more likely your performance will be sufficient to win the game. Football is low scoring … [continue reading]