The Big Wall is back at Celtic Park and has very quickly reminded us all what we were missing, especially in the crunch games.
In May 19 I wrote The Undisputed Number One where I showed Bain had rightly kept the shirt from Gordon with stellar displays over the end of last season. I then wrote Is Signing Forster Necessary? to add to my list of overly obvious article titles. This showed that both Bain and Gordon had regressed their performances versus the 18/19 season. To answer the question, simply Yes, the big lad was needed.
I was made aware that “Lennon didn’t fancy Bain” quite early in the season. I have wondered what came first: A crisis of confidence from the incumbent picking up on his managers reticence, or a genuine loss of form from Bain?
Either way Forster has re-established his position as Celtic’s premier ‘keeper. As part of the mid term report series, the question is: Does he deserve to do so?
Save %
If I were Sky Sports (I am not) then Save % would be the key stat to use. This shows the % of all on target shots saved.
Bain’s save % last season was very impressive at 85%. The problem is that this takes no account of shot quality. If all the shots you had to save were from 35 yards, you’d expect a high % of saves.
So, we have to bring Expected Goals into it. Hooray.
Saved Shot xG
The below shows the average xG value of shots saved per 90m.
Forster is saving better quality shots than the other two. Gordon’s rate for 19.20 was 0.544 whilst Bain was only saving 0.367 xG value of shots per 90m this season.
Goals Conceded versus Expected
The even more meaningful measure is to consider the xG value of all the shots on target versus the goals conceded.
This illustrates again how well Bain did last season. The shots he faced suggested he should be conceding 0.616 goals per 90m but he only conceded 0.37. With Gordon letting in more goals than the shot quality would suggest it was easy to see why Bain was preferred.
This season Forster is letting in 0.67 goals per 90m but the shot quality he is facing suggests he should be letting in 0.871. So, he is adding value. I am also worried that Celtic seem to be expected to concede more goals! That’s for another day.
This season Bain was expected to concede 1.133 goals per 90m but actually conceded 1.29. An underperformance by that metric. In Gordon’s 6.33 appearances he conceded 0.63 versus an xG of 0.99 which is an improvement for him over 18/19.
Distribution
As I mentioned in the opening mid term report on Lennon, Celtic are more direct and the notion of picking a ‘keeper because of his distribution (e.g. De Vries) is not really a Lennon trait.
Simply, Celtic are not completing anywhere near as many passes and this starts from the back.
Bain achieved 86% pass completion and this season and it is 68% by Forster. The Englishman only completes 48% of Set Piece passes.
Therefore, in the distribution stakes Forster is not an improvement but Lennon probably doesn’t care that much.
Conclusion
Like Jullien, Forster comes alive in the big games. He made 5 saves at home to Lazio, 6 away, 7 at home to Rennes and 8 in the League Cup Final victory where he was Bhoy of the Match. In no other game has he needed to make more than 3.
Forster is an imposing presence, and like Sinclair when Rodgers brought him from Aston Villa, appears to be in the right place at the right time for his career. Long may that continue.
James Dailey says
I look forward to the rest of the season-to-date review by position. My deep concern about the midfield setup and selection, particularly Brown’s role and usage, is largely grounded in a combination of what is now clearly a legitimate title challenge, but also capitalizing on having the two keystone positions populated by players at levels we may not enjoy consistently. Edouard is clearly a level above and is still at an age where his development is likely to improve further – particularly his finishing. Forster is the other piece of that keystone.
He is single handedly responsible for the narrative about the current season being relatively positive (your first piece about Lennon) vs an emerging disaster. Celtic were outperformed by Lazio in both games in xG terms and Forster was THE difference in those games, as well as the Cup Final. The team is on a razor’s edge from what could have been getting knocked out of CL qualification by an inferior Cluj, finishing 3rd in EL group behind Lazio and Cluj (again!), and losing the first trophy to Rangers, all while effectively being 2nd in the table at the winter break.
Forster has papered over various issues, such as when Lennon gets things wrong he tends to get them horribly wrong and is poor at adjusting. Optimistically, if the midfield and Brown’s role (I am not optimistic) are addressed and a legit box striker added, Celtic could make a deep run in EL. Given the realities dictated by the insane financial disparities, Celtic need to capitalize on competitive cycles when they emerge. We are unlikely to have the likes of Forster and Edouard consistently.
James Dailey says
Quick addendum – looked at xPassing stats for this season and Forster and Bain are basically the same, with Forster outperforming his xPassing % by 7.2% and Bain 6.91%. Bain’s average pass length is about 3 yards longer than Forster, which is likely the reason why his raw completion stat is so much lower (69% vs 76%). BTW, McGregor at Rangers is 13.21% and they are playing out from the back a lot more. His average length is a yard shorter than Forster and he has attempted 596 passes vs 371 for Forster.
For additional context, Bain was 14.62% last season with an average length a full 8 yards shorter than his average this season, and 4 yards shorter than McGregor’s this season. Gerrard seems to be in a sort of middle ground between Rodgers and Lennon.
Duncan says
Let’s just overlook the fact we have bedded in a new defence this Season
Gained more points than the previous 2 Seasons at this juncture and 3 point less than the Invincible Season.
Let’s also overlook the fact it was Neil Lennon who brought Forster back as he seen there was a necessity to do so.
Hen when we are finished doing that let us also conveniently ignore the fact we have been down to one striker for much of the Season and therefore restricted to what the Manager can do up front.
All of that aside let’s also ignore the fact that should 2angers win both their next two games they will have turned round a 14 point deficit at this point last Season whilst also winning the corresponding game at Ayebrokes where Rodgers turned up and played Johnston as a lone striker.
Given all of the above I happen to thank we are in relatively good shape considering the level of personnel we have coming back from injury and the fact we have a large sum sat in the Bank for reinforcing the squad.
But hey let’s just a wee dig at Lenny instead eh?
The players aren’t Robots and when key men fault to turn up in Derby games it is a fact you tend to lose them.
Particularly so when the opposition has raised their game considerably by comparison to the previous 6 Seasons.
Our best MF setup was McGregor,Christie- Rogic in a 4-3-3 during a period last Season when both Brown and Ntcham were unavailable due to Suspension and injury.
Brown and Ntcham in the same Midfield simply doesn’t work.
They slow play down too much and the latter is as good as a man short when man marked or pressed in a game.
James Dailey says
Hello Duncan,
My intent is not to take a shot at Lennon- in fact I was one of the small minority amongst the support who was firmly in support of his appointment. I don’t think you took issue with any of the substance of what I wrote, and I agree with you with regards to only having 1 striker, Lennon deserving of credit for Forster and the transfer window overall, Rangers’ clear improvement, etc.
However, in aggregate that is why I am critical- the margin for error is greatly reduced. “Good shape” may not be good enough! Also, the analytical evidence of what he is doing with the midfield and his usage of Brown are so obviously poor/unwise, it makes me wonder if there is a judgment/culture problem. I cannot believe that the data/analytics people they employ are missing the clear signals.
The fact is Rangers have also been utilizing their squad better than us, which is completely unacceptable given the disparity in depth and resources. The amount of minutes Brown and McGregor have played is gross negligence by our manager- full stop.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
James a small point from me. The Rangers have a bigger squad than Celtic but I don’t disagree about how they have been utilised. Why Bitton doesn’t deputise for Brown on occasion escapes me.
James Dailey says
In raw #’s I am sure you are correct, but relative to quality of 12-20, I think we are better by a distance ex-striker position- even with the injuries to Elhamed, Moi, etc. Also agree on Bitton or even McGregor as central deep playmaker with 2 of Ntcham,Rogic and Christie. Inexcusable that we haven’t played that sort of attacking and creative midfield at home against a bottom six side – not even once!
Looking forward to right back analysis!
Jim says
There is no doubt that the tall chap is a very good shot stopper
however I would to see him @ least command his six yard box
Area anyway he is a good addition however if chinese wispers
& rumors are true rumour has it that Southampton are now
looking for 25 Million pounds for the services of their third
choice Goalkeeper which is ridiculous amount of money to
say the least