Over the course of doing this site there have been many victories to report. But I must be balanced and fair when performances are poor and say it like it is. So it is with the last match. Not a happy one. Much grumpiness ahead.
Excuses
Let’s get the excuses out the way first:
- It didn’t matter the league is already won
- “Yes but we can still win the Treble Treble”
- The players have played hundreds of games over 3 years with next to no rest
- The injuries!
- “Rodgers left us in the lurch”
There is rarely one thing and I am sure all the above had a small part to play in Sunday’s events. But occasionally performances are so woeful as to be career limiting. Those are the days you find out an awful lot about the staff and players. This was one such day.
Selection
Firstly, stop picking players who are unfit. Just don’t.
This time it was Lustig. He went off with a hamstring strain last match. Even if not a full tear these can take weeks of recovery. He is not a young player. He went off with a reoccurrence before half time. When the home side had a corner and Celtic had to defend it a (tall) man down.
But Lustig’s lack of physical speed was exploited in the first minute when Kent closed him down with intensity and Johnston fouled the advancing Kent as he broke at Celtic. And they scored.
Tierney has been mismanaged all year. He has missed 18 matches and appeared in 9 in 2019. If you see him trying to complete a recovery run at Aberdeen you can see he is operating well below capability and free movement. He needs an operation. Do it. And let him recover properly.
If you believe Hayes will provide more threat than Sinclair then I can’t help you. Hayes will provide more chances (1.92 per 90m to 1.26). But Sinclair’s xG is 0.52 compared to 0.08 for Hayes. You might create 7 more chances over 10 matches with Hayes but you will take nearly 5 goals out the team. And Edouard needs support.
Twice now young Johnston has been thrown in at Ibrox in an unfamiliar role (striker in December and right wing back here). It is expecting a lot from a young player. And shows other more senior players they are not trusted.
Formation
Celtic set up 3-5-2 against the home side’s 4-3-2-1. If felt like when McLeish discovered 4-3-3 caused O’Neill’s 3-5-2 no end of issues. This wasn’t quite the same.
The Rangers played narrow and utterly stifled Celtic’s options through the middle. As there was only Hayes and Johnston wide, on their own, options were limited.
This is an approximation of the average positions of the players.
Celtic Possession
- In possession Celtic had three players in central defence against Defoe so immediately it is 7 v 9.
- Lustig has Johnston pulled in tight on the right because he is not fit and is concerned with Kent’s pace.
- Hayes is trying to provide width high up the left. Consequently, McGregor is filling in on the left as an out ball.
- Brown is patrolling in from of the back three, not really involved in forward actions.
- Rogic is wandering slightly to the right.
- Edouard is trying to fill the ‘10’ space and dropping deep.
- Burke I think is on the last man. Watching the television play back I could not actually see him in the picture at any time.
Meanwhile, The Rangers:
- Allow the Celtic back three to have the ball.
- Press quickly using the tucked in half forwards (Kent and Arfield) if the ball goes wide.
- Davis, Kamara and Jack play as a unit, always in touch with each other.
- This forms a five man shield in the middle zones where Celtic are trying to play.
- But the Celtic attackers are disconnected and are not physically close enough to each other to interact.
Look at the gaps between McGregor, Brown and Rogic compared to the home side’s shape.
The result is Celtic have lots of passive possession (i.e. amongst the back three). Simunovic and Ajer accounted for 37% of all Celtic’s passes.
Of the 153 passes they completed, only 1, from Ajer to Burke on 40 minutes was a forward pass from one of the that pair to a forward.
Lustig connected three times with Edouard in the first half and once with Rogic. He remains the best long passer from the back and was missed in this regard if nothing else.
Over the 90 minutes 11 forward passes took out an opponent and connected with one of the forwards.
The change of shape in the second half to 4-4-1-1 did not resolve this. Now Brown and McGregor are closer together but completely outnumbered.
The Rangers Possession
Out of possession Celtic simply didn’t press with the same intensity as the home side rendering difference in shape largely academic. However, with the Celtic midfield being disconnected, and with Edouard and Burke providing nothing like the defensive cover of The Rangers front three, the Blues were able to find forward passes diagonally and from wide to centre, with ease.
The Rangers found their forwards 21 times with pack passes, taking out at least one Celtic player each time. The lively Kent was the recipient of 12 of those with three out their back four connecting with the wide attacker, in contrast to Celtic.
Celtic simply never matched the home side’s desire and work rate, which is unforgivable. The example above was preceded by Celtic wining the ball back and quickly advancing it to Edouard. Jack, Davis and Kamara have ALL sprinted back to help out quickly stifling the Celtic attack. No Celtic midfielders are supporting Edouard and Burke.
It was one example, there were plenty more.
You Get What You Put In
This was not a match where Celtic were under constant pressure or giving up chance after chance. The Rangers had 11 shots but only Arfield’s brilliantly crafted second could be construed a big chance. Defoe had a shot from inside the box and central saved comfortably by Bain. Goldson headed over from a low xG chance from a corner in the first. Otherwise it was low probability long efforts.
Yet it was a very comfortable win for The Rangers.
Celtic’s xG of 0.518 was their lowest domestically of the season as was 1 shot on target. 2 shots inside the box is a season low in Scotland. 2 chances created is the lowest by 4. Celtic only took out 7 defenders with forward passes equalling the pitiful December effort.
This wasn’t a rampant attacking home performance but they perfectly stifled Celtic in every way.
Individual Performances
There is genuinely no interest from me in picking on individuals and I gave Hayes Bhoy of the Match simply on the basis he had sweat on his shirt at the end (I don’t have a stat for that).
The inability of the side to engage the forwards can be highlighted:
- Burke completed 7 passes all match, and lost the ball 7 times
- Rogic completed 9 passes and only 1 took out an opponent
- Sinclair completed 1 pass in 24 minutes
- Hayes gave the ball away 16 times with errant passes including 5 failed crosses
- Toljan either passed it back, or forward and to a blue shirt – he gave the ball away 14 times in 45 minutes
- The forward players completed 3 pack passes between them
I’m not exonerating the rest.
You know I love Ajer on this blog. But, whilst I’m grumpy, there are three things the coaches have to help him with:
- Keep your hands down – it’s an easy free kick to give;
- Learn to use your left foot if you are going to play left centre back – many passes or options disadvantaged taking a millisecond to adjust onto his right; and
- The second goal – sliding in with the wrong foot – i.e. the right which halted his momentum rather than swinging around with his left minimising the risk of a penalty and using his momentum positively.
How to finish with anything positive to say?
Despite being set up wrong, making ineffective changes, and having virtually every player display less physical commitment than their opponent, the following should be remembered.
Celtic have intrinsic structural advantages including legitimate and transparent ownership, safe and transparent financials, and a strong core squad. Those fundamentals will not change any time soon over the strategic long term.
However, more management and player performances like that and many tactical defeats will follow.
SFTB says
Excellent analysis again.
I am not of the opinion that one tactical system is superior to another. MON”s 3:5:2 could have beaten McLeish’s 4:3:3 if the players had performed better.
Similarly, our outmanned central mids could have undermined Sevvco’s advantages by finding their own wing backs more often when Sevco were so narrow.
This non-statistical sentence you used explains a lot more about why we lost-
“Celtic simply never matched the home side’s desire and work rate, which is unforgivable”
Well, apart from the last word.
Because, we will forgive and we will be back and we expect that lessons will be learned for important games.
I would like a Rogic/ Ntcham comparison if you can do it. We all love Tom’s magic in the 10 role. Ntcham seems more orthodox but as effective when on his game. Trouble is he has been off his game in the last few performances tried (I don’t include the Ibrox one there, as he was slightly better than Tom but neither of them shone).
Joe says
Good article and we’ll explained, hope we don’t see another similar until next season (late)
Kyle says
Our lack of desire was clear but did that match up in terms of distance ran and players making forward runs/ sprints completed during the match? If you have those stats.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Unfortunately I don’t have GPS data. Would love to!
Johnny B says
First-class technical analysis.
The worry part is that we have seen performances luke that before – think back to the defeat at Kilmarnock last season – it took us to tge last minute to fashion a chance.
I don’t claim to know the circumstances surrounding the abortive John McGinn transfer ladt summer – but I wish we had him now – another great display for Villa last night. Rogic is a part-time player, part-time seasons and part-time performances on the field. McGinn is head and shoulders above him – wish we had a mid-field of Brown, McGinn, Christie and McGregor.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
I feel I need to look at Rogic
Millsy says
Excellent analysis , as always ! Do the Celtic Board read these , I wonder ? Hopefully someone will slip it under Lennon’s door and retreat swiftly .
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
If Celtic need input from an idiot like me we are in BIG trouble!
Graeme Mcmillan says
When Ratus Duplicitus left, he took most of the backroom staff with him, including the analysis team. I suspect that you are doing a better job than Celtic at analysing the games, especially as you don’t have the resources available.
Lennon had a huge task in getting us over the line. (Duff had recently joined as a junior coach!!) But he has proven to be tactically inept as this analysis shows.
Call me crazy, but I still live in the vain hope that the ‘special one’ will accept a 2 year deal.
Bridie Bhoy says
Excellent article, even if it does make depressing reading. One point though about comparing Sinclair v Hayes based only on the xG value. Not sure of the time period this relates to but I so know that since Boxing Day, Sinclair has played in 12 matches against the other Top 6 teams (plus 1 game against Valencia) and he has scored zero goals. This is a pitiful return for such a highly paid senior player in the big games. Hayes undeniably provides a lot more defensive cover and undoubtedly puts in a lot more effort than a seemingly disinterested Sincy who seems to drift in and mostly out of games these days. I appreciate this is a stats based site but we can use our eyes as well to argue between the selection of certain players – but we will still support whoever is picked to play. Cheers!
Andrew Watt says
Love reading your analysis.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
You are welcome
HG says
Reading through this website I’m no longer surprised at the extraordinary number of injuries that players at Celtic FC have had during the past two seasons during matchplay. This website is probably read by managers and players of Celtic’s opposition. If they wanted to play dirty, as they often do, this website will freely give them all the information required in order to know which particular Celtic players are in form and who they need to target for special treatment to disorientate those players and the entire team. Well done Einstein!
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Please tell me this is a wee joke? (I’m giving you an out here).
HG says
The last three words were joking. Previous was serious. This is the tech age, I would be surprised if many football managers and players do not read up on their opposition prior to matchday.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Thanks for the flattery!
DamianG says
HG, first class analysis yet again. I’m not convinced Neil Lennon gives much credence to this vital part of the modern game. If this is indeed the case, Celtic are being disadvantaged as you can be sure that our opponents will be doing what they can to give them an edge.
I’m case you maybe missed it, here’s a good read on where Rafa Benitez is with the performance stats, analytics and sports science – I hope Celtic’s next manager will give it as much credence.
https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/blood-tests-big-data-rafa-16224870
Richard says
Fantastic analysis.
The player I find most frustrating is Hayes.
He always gives the ball away
He is not a full back and don’t understand why a manager would play an attacker at full back in any game.
Hopefully this game will show PL and DD that we need a proper manager like Rodgers to take us forward.who is professional in all aspects of the job.
Francis O'Donnell says
This was a well done analysis and you are not as naïve or lack the credentials whereby ‘If Celtic need input from an idiot like me we are in BIG trouble!’ Lennon and his cohorts could help themselves reading this article. Lennon selected Burke, Lustig, Hayes, Johnston, Rogic, McGregor, Brown and even Ajer but left quality players like Benkovic, Bitton and Ntcham on the bench. Lennon needs his ass kicked! He gift wrapped this game and the starting players named above were embarrassing. Furthermore, he sat and watched this debacle as he needed to get those (3) players on after 10 minutes.