There are rumours of clubs potentially bidding for Ntcham. He missed 19 games to injury and that hampered progress January to March. Prior to this I detailed his worth in Why Ntcham Matters.
Now the season is over, how did his performance compare to last season, and compared to the squad?
Comparison to Last Season
Ntcham completed the equivalent of 28.18 matches, managing 2536 minutes compared to 3414 minutes in 17/18.
And let’s be clear: his performance levels have dropped compared to his debut season. Let’s take a look at his scorecard.
Red = 10%+ reduction; Amber = 0-9% reduction or improvement; Green = 10%+ improvement.
Injury and absence have disrupted Ntcham’s rhythm. Most noticeably around defensive actions. His DASR% is down by 10% and he is now net losing possession whereas last season Ntcham was net winning back possession. If we include passing, his Possession Effectiveness is down 4%.
He is creating 15% less chances, and has a rather measly assist rate of 0.04 per 90m compared to 0.18 last season. He is completing the same number of passes but rather less accurately. The young Frenchman is completing less of those crucial Pack Passes that break the defensive lines – down 5%.
BUT his Expected Assists (xA) is only down 9% whilst actual Assists is down 78%. That is either bad luck (e.g. bad finishing by others) or creating poor quality chances (unlikely – see below).
It is the same story with his shooting. The good news is he is clearly an avid reader of this site and has reduced his Shots Outside the Box from 84% to 72%. Not surprisingly, his Expected Goals (xG) has shot up from 0.199 per 90m to 0.343! But the damn ball has not been going in as his scoring rate is down slightly from 0.24 goals per 90m to 0.21.
All this means his Expected Scoring Contribution has actually risen! Whilst actual Scoring Contribution has tanked.
Conclusion? I’m concerned at his falling defensive stats as this may be an inference of work rate and general digging in. However, it looks like from a creating and scoring perspective, the numbers suggest he is due a bit of a regression upwards towards the mean. And that is good news for Celtic.
Squad Comparison
Ntcham’s principle differentiating skill set is his ability to pass through the opposition lines. This is measured by Packing and Impect scores.
He continues to lead the Pack Pass table completing 8.94 per 90m. McGregor is next best on 7.81. Ntcham is the only squad member with a Pass Impect per 90m over 40 (41.74). But here is the surprise – Ntcham leads the squad with the highest number of Pack Receives per 90m of 8.94. This is indicative of finding space, taking in and controlling passes that take opponents out the game.
Add that to the occasional dribble and Ntcham has the highest Total Packs per 90 of 18.49 and highest Total Impect of 82.01. To put into context the next highest are Izaguirre (surprised?) with 15.06 Total Packs and Christie (69.3 Total Impect). In other words, he is by far the most effective player at getting Celtic through the opposition either passing, receiving or dribbling. And that is a vital role.
From a deeper midfield position than say, Forrest and Rogic, he we can assess his ability to be the fulcrum to moves that result in shots by looking at Secondary Assists – the pass before the assisting pass to a shot. Whilst Ntcham trails McGregor only by volume of Secondary Assists (1.63 to 1.76 per 90m) he leads the team in quality of Secondary Assists. Ntcham’s xA from such passes is 0.284 per 90m (oddly Izaguirre is 2nd by this measure).
Ntcham’s overall Expected Scoring Contribution (xSC) is only a fraction below Rogic’s at 0.542 (Rogic has had a very poor season – see Rogic and the Slopes of Doom). It is easily higher than any other central midfielder.
Conclusion
There is no doubt Ntcham’s score card is more Red than Green denoting regression in performance. But he is suffering from under hitting xA and xG which should reverse. And more importantly, he leads the team in crucial metrics regarding ball progression and creativity.
Those wanting him away should reconsider. To lose Armstrong, who was the nearest to Ntcham in profile, then the young French Under 21 star would be difficult to replace.
John Monaghan says
Ntcham is some player when he is fully fit and he see pacers before anyone else see it and he can dribble and score goals and makes goals for other players all rounder so he is man fur me get him fully fit and you’ve got some player on your hands. ???COYBIG??? ??HH??
Stan noga says
He is an exciting player to see all those injuries certainly hampered his time and when next season comes I think you will see a much better and improved player, with all those hammer throwers in the opposition especially those from the southside of the river. Looking forward to the new season and 9 in a row.
Duncan says
I don’t think you can compare Ntcham with Armstrong Alan.
Ntcham is a good player if you afford him time and space to operate in but if you close him down and get in about him his game suffers badly.
He’s not suited to the Scottish game and would be better in Spain or Portugal where he can express himself and have the space to do it.
Armstrong cut his teeth in our League and made the step up to the EPL no problem.
Same with McGinn.
I doubt Ntcham would flourish down there personally.
Out the two I would keep Rogic and punt Ntcham as big Tam can be a game changer when he is on it.
Besides our best spell of attacking football came with McGregor,Rogic-Christie in Midfield this Season.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Duncan in terms of Packing they are comparable. I disagree with the rest too my friend. Ntcham has intrinsic quality and will improve, I worry about Rogic as I wrote.
Duncan says
Telling ye Alan he’s not cut out for the Scottish game and will most probably shine in a League where time and space are afforded players like him.
Close him down and press him and he is mediocre at best regardless of what the stats say It’s what we witness most weeks when he plays.
That’s not a slight in his technical ability or potential I just don’t see him realising it until he moves in personally.
Give me McGregor in the Regista role behind Christie and a fit Rogic any day,
Go back and watch the performances around the Rosenborg away tie and the subsequent toes with Brown and Ntcham in there it’s like chalk and cheese bud,
Way more dynamic.
HH
sonnybhoy88 says
I think ntcham could play football anywhere in the world,he can hit some sublime passes from mid to front,confidence is the key for any player,I think in a 3-5-2 he would excel if there was two ball winners in midfield to support him,where he could ping passes right and left to rampaging fullbacks,teirney is an out and out fullback…..we just need someone similar on the right hand side,this is why in my opinion that lenny is going for george baldock from shefield utd…….in terms of the squad i would also like lenny to bring in another top keeper,another cb,and another top striker,the squad we have can easily adjust to a 3-5-2……..Hail Hail
Duncan says
Close him down and he runs out of ideas quickly.
Gets caught in possession to readily when he’s man marked.
john shine says
Is he interested in staying? Seems like he is somewhere else in his own mind, if so get rid and find someone who wants to wear the shirt
Johnny B says
The Scottish Game????????
It has changed so much in the last two years, all because Celtic must be stopped.
Catenaccio with a high-press is employed against Celtic, so there are more like Ntcham within the squad who can’t handle it. Rogic, Sinclair, McGregor, Brown, Christie and Forrest, all struggle. The Rangers who are now best equipped to operate in this way have totally dominated in the last two Ibrox encounters.
We are frightened an impotent when smothered by the press – ultimately it did not cost us trophywise this season – it might just next.
Duncan says
The best way to counter a high press is to mix it up going short and long.
With pace up front which we have in abundance it forces the opposition to think more than simply pushing their lines up.
The style Rodgers implemented (which was effectively what Deila has in place but with more emphasis in playing it out and across the back 4) effectively encourages teams to press high.
Brendan’s obsession with retaining possession (Death by football he calls it) is the issue.
The fact of the matter is when both Brown and Ntcham were out due to fatigue and injury we were forced into playing McGregor ,Rogic -Christie in the middle and the result was a quicker Celtic moving the ball forward with great effect and dominating teams.
He reverted back to the Brown – Ntcham combination and we went back to the sideways push seen previously and much of last Season.
Lenny has already stated he will be addressing this issue and if Kennedy was paying paying attention to the period mentioned above (around the Leipzig Home and Rosenborg Away Ties) he should have informed him this is and was a solution to this problem.
He is also adamant we will be playing with more flexibility in regards to Formations which is in keeping with his more pragmatic approach to opposing sides and especially in Europe where you have to be,
Johnny B says
Cannot disagree with anything you say.
It’s hard to argue with BR’s record, however when other teams ‘cottoned on’ in year two and three, we were, on the whole, difficult to watch.
There seemed to be zero speculation, just a continual ‘passing of the buck’ when pressed.
The midfield are constantly receiving the ball facing our goal and unaware of where, or, when, the challenge is coming – so they play the safe “it wisnae me” pass.
I know I keep referring to the Ibrox games, but if they had been boxing matches, both would have been stopped half way through.
Duncan says
The exception to this is having McGregor in the Deep lying Playmaker role his head is constantly on the swivel looking for the pass BEFORE he even receives it.
Sign of a quality Regista.