The 300

Griffith’s dramatic winner against BK Rosenborg, the first winner Celtic have scored past the 80^th minute since Rogic’s glorious treble winner against Aberdeen at Hampden, was also Rodger’s 300^th goal as Celtic manager.

It’s a numbers landmark. It’s a numbers site. What to do?

Landmark Goals

From the first to the 300^th, here are the landmark goals.

Remarkably, none of the landmark goals have been in a league game. All other competitions Rodgers’ sides have competed in are represented. And Lustig appears twice! He has only scored 7 goals in the Rodger’s era.

Opposition Torment

Rodgers has faced 34 opponents so far. The 300 goals have not been assigned evenly. Glasgow rivals The Rangers have been on the receiving end of 31 of them. That’s 8 more than the next opponents – Heart of Midlothian and Motherwell.

Dundee, of Scottish opposition, have been admirably resolute with only 12 goals conceded in 7 matches. They are the ONLY Scottish team to hold Celtic to an average of under 2 goals per game against.

The worst averages per game are all European opposition, occupying the bottom 10 places in the table.

Barcelona are the only opponents Rodger’s Celtic have not scored against.

Competition Averages

The stark difference between Scottish and European football is highlighted in the respective goal averages between Rodger’s teams’ averages across the competitions.

Celtic have managed almost double the number of goals per game in the Scottish Cup compared to the Champions League.

The Rodger’s Legacy

So how does Rodgers compare to the pantheon of previous Celtic managers? Well, despite the fact that Rodgers has lost the LOWEST % of matches of ANY Celtic manager in history (13.3% – 18 defeats in 135 matches), he is in 5^th place on goal average.

Time left to improve this?

Talking of Time…..

In his first season, Rodger’s Celtic were relentless in hounding the opponent with pressing and attacking football. This season, the Griffith’s 300^th goal was the first winner scored after the 80^th minute since Rogic sealed the treble at Hampden against Aberdeen in May 2017.

Here is when Rodgers’ teams score their goals.

A Cautionary Tale

Whilst 300 goals as a manager for any club is a tremendous achievement, the standard we set for Celtic is continuous improvement. Coming back to modern football analytical statistics, let’s look at Celtic’s performance versus Expected Goals (xG) in the Rodger’s era.

What this shows is a gradual but inexorable decline in both actual goals scored, and xG over the last three seasons. Whilst 2016/17 would be difficult to maintain with a significant over performance against xG, Celtic are now consistently underperforming their xG since October 2017.

Rodger’s should reflect positively on such a significant landmark, but be mindful that decline is worse than standing still in football. A treble is to be defended and 10 in a row to be kept on track.

The above trend needs to be reversed for that to come to fruition. Well done, but press on!