Will Lennon get transfer funds to strengthen the squad? I take a look at managerial trading since the end of the O’Neill era.
I pick this benchmark as it saw the end of the strategy of a stellar first XI and then kids / cheap squad players to a more nuanced model of Moneyball trading, academy promotion and sell ‘em high.
This is an edited post. Initially I used the data I had collected at the time from media and other sources on transfer fees. The Annual Report and Accounts are the document of record concerning the monetary values involved in the buying and selling of “intangible assets” i.e. players. It will therefore reflect the loan fees, for example, which I would not previously have had.
Strachan (2005-09)
At the time it seemed Strachan was charged with replacing the days of record purchases under O’Neill with more prudent and cost-effective signings. He is rightly praised and remembered as bringing success whilst reducing the overall cost of the squad.
However, with the benefit of hindsight, Strachan had significantly more funds provided to him for transfers than any of his predecessors. Indeed, he is the only net spender since O’Neill (ignoring Mowbray!).
Strachan spent nearly £16m net over four seasons. His costliest purchase (and what a legacy) was Brown for £4.4m. Otherwise he was trading in the £1-2m market with only Vennegoor of Hesselink at £3.4m over that.
In terms of sale, the £6.5m Petrov dollars was easily the highest.
In those days Celtic benefitted from automatic qualification to the Champions League Group Stage – try explaining that to your kids!
Mowbray (2009-10)
The Mowbray reign was short, and was costly in terms of net transfer spend. In fact, £5.9m was spent on a net basis.
The £3.8m for Fortune was the signature signing, offset by Strachan kindly taking McDonald to Middlesbrough for £3.5m. The Keane loan would have been costly.
Lennon (2010-14)
Lennon managed in interesting times. Whilst the Scottish football scene apparently underwent Armageddon, the perceived lack of a rival after the liquidation of Rangers may partly explain the tightening of belts under the Lurgan man.
Alternatively, the modern Celtic of the 21st Century could be argued to have truly started with Lennon. Moneyball signings (playing the Bosman market e.g. Ledley, Matthews, Lustig) and buying just young enough to be off the Big League radar (Wanyama, Van Dijk, Hooper) became the norm. As did negative net spend.
A consideration for Lennon as he ponders the job again is that only in 2 of his 4 seasons did he have a net spend on players.
His biggest signing was Juarez (hands up?) for £3m whilst Wanyama (£12m), McGeady (£9.5m), Ki (£6.3m) and Hooper (£5.25m) were Moneyballed out.
Two Champions League campaigns in four seasons was supplemented by net £5m of incoming transfer lucre. By this stage Celtic managers were averaging around £8-9m outgoings per season.
And the trend was set.
Deila (2014-16)
The Moneyball manager was given around the same per season on average to spend as Lennon (around £8-9m).
Deila’s biggest outlay was Simunovic £2.8m.
However, bringing significant transfer income continued as a trend.
He oversaw the outgoing of Forster £10m and Van Dijk (initial £13m) to the English Premier League,
Overall Deila brought in slightly more than he spent but the extent to which he was supported may surprise.
Rodgers (2016-19)
The former EPL manager, used to proper war chests at Liverpool, was supported to an average of £14.4m per season for outgoing transfers – the highest average of the managers analysed.
However, he brought in over £15m per season, reflecting the upward trajectory of transfer fees in general.
The record fee of £9m for Edouard was eye catching. Ntcham (£4.5m) and Sinclair (£3.5m) were his other signature signings.
Records tumbled at both ends of the balance sheet as £19.8m arrived for Dembele, whilst the Van Dijk dividend continued to deliver with a further £7.5m arriving from Liverpool. Armstrong’s fee of £7.2m is massive for Celtic but tiny by current EPL standards.
Summary
This is not an article about which manager had the best transfer record in terms of hits and misses. The point here is to show that whilst Strachan reduced the squad running costs, he did so with transfer fees at a trading loss that has not been seen since.
Since then, after the Mowbray debacle, Celtic managers have run at a largely break-even basis between money spent and coming in from transfers.
Lennon may get funds, and based on the averages, he can expect to spend around £10m in out goings. But Celtic will recoup around the same at the other end.
Unless the environment changes, this won’t change soon.
Duncan says
I don’t think we need to spend more than £20m to resolve any issues we have.
Sell Ntcham and Sinclair £10-12m
Buy
RB Castagne for £8-10m from Atalanta
LB Meling for £3-4m from Rosenborg
CB McKenna for £3-5m from Aberdeen-Use Hendry as a deal maker.
LW Lestienne for £3-5m from Standard
CFW Finnbogason for £6-8m from Augsburg
Loan Benkovic from Leicester for another Season.
£13-20m Net spend
It can be done and I think it will be regardless of what the bloggers think.
The reason I say this is simple.
There is now way Neil Lennon is going to follow on from Rodgers without a cast iron assurance that the side gets the quality reinforcement that it evidently needs.
The money is there sat in the Bank and Lennon as of yet hasn’t signed the contract so the onus is on Lawwell to get busy.
Don’t forget there is also the small matter of Rodgers compensation from Leicester and any money raised from a sale of Dembele this Summer to factor in.
We are rolling in it.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
I’ve no doubt Celtic will spend Duncan.
But expect money coming in as well.
In all honesty success to me looks like strengthening the squad AND make a profit.
Duncan says
I totally agree Alan.
The key as always is investing in quality.
You don’t have to spend fortunes to get quality.
Forster Gordon Ajer Lustig Van Dijk Brown Wanyama Commons Griffiths Dembele Sinclair Hooper Ledley Armstrong Rogic for example.
Duncan says
Also Alan we reverted from a Club who bought to build to a Club that changed to a buy to sell Club during and after the Financial Crisis.
The death of Rangers (In Liquidation) just compounded it further as there was no real threat to our Dominance from there on in.
We have more or less had a free run at Champions League/Europa League cash for 7 years.
The 2angers (2012-0mwards) are mounting more of a threat and as a result we will have to react accordingly.
The Board are not thick they have deployed a low risk strategy so far and it has paid off handsomely.
It is ZERO RISK when the money is already sat there.
Which it is before a ball is even kicked next Season.
TimLord says
Hi, really enjoy your work and this is really interesting. Do you think you could you do a wages comparison across the piece? Seeing that alongside the transfer net spend figures would maybe give a more rounded view – although how we would factor wage inflation into that might be difficult. I suppose though, if Celtic have held true to the rumour around wages capped at £30k a week then perhaps the wage inflation effect across the globe might not be so significant in our case as I’m sure Henrik, Sutton, Hartson etc were already pulling those wages at Celtic. So for us we still pay the amount we did in the O’Neill era but unfortunately to players of a far lower standard.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
I could and will at some time but it means trawling through the accounts and I am not really an accountant. I’ll add it to the backlog! Thanks for the comments.
Duncan says
As far back as The Club Website will allow Alan:
2005 Annual Wages £37.39m
2006 Annual Wages £32.49m (13% Reduction)
2007 Annual Wages £36.42m (12% Increase)
2008 Annual Wages £38.98m (7% Increase)
2009 Annual Wages £38.75m ( 0.6% Reduction)
2010 Annual Wages £36.48m (5.8% Reduction )
2011 Annual Wages £32.66m (10.5% Reduction)
2012 Annual Wages £33.88m (3.7% Increase)
2013 Annual Wages £40.75m (20.3% Increase)
2014 Annual Wages £37.77m (7.3% Decrease)
2015 Annual Wages £33.27m (11.9% Decrease)
2016 Annual Wages £36.90m (10.8% Increase)
2017 Annual Wages £52.2m (41.5% Increase)
2018 Annual Wages £59.3m (13.6% Increase)
Anyone who’s suggest or makes the statement Brendan wasn’t backed at Celtic is talking Raphael Sheidt.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Total staff cost yes? For 650 employees?
Take off £15m roughly for all non playing staff.
Duncan says
The total staff costs are the same for every Manager but it is Playing staff that affects it the most regardless as they are on ridiculous wages.
We have a plethora of players at the Club Rodgers either didn’t use or were useless.
It’s been a very expensive project when you look at it as Peter Lawwell bean counter extraordinaire obviously will and does.
Duncan says
I should say the total staff figures affect all of those totals Alan
And obviously there will be fluctuations in the amount of personnel etc.
Then there is Lawwells Bonus which has ballooned over the years.
You cannot escape the fact that Rodgers has been backed way more than the previous 4 Managers.
I would contest that both Strachan and Lennon achieved more in Europe with less.