St Johnstone are in their best run of league form although this isn’t saying a lot but two wins and a draw in the last four matches is improvement. The last three were with new manager (old face) Craig Levein in charge. Most telling perhaps was the last fixture a 0-1 loss away at Tynecastle. … [continue reading]
Opposition Performance
Relentless, By Numbers
On this week’s Huddle Breakdown (please subscribe on whatever channel you consume your podcasts) @jucojames spelt out how some of Celtic’s key metrics have declined since the World Cup hiatus. And they are some core metrics, for sure. Looking at Scottish matches only, expected goals (xG) is down from 2.99 to 2.82. Celtic are having … [continue reading]
Good / Bad / Lucky / Unlucky
Whilst Celtic are getting soundly thrashed in the World Cup Break Cup (see any edition of the Daily Record for details), a reversion to a time when actual football was played. A regular feature is the Good/Bad/Lucky/Unlucky grid. In essence this plots teams’ average goal difference with the difference between that and the expected goals … [continue reading]
Fast Start, Strong Finish
In most running races it is important to start well to establish rhythm and confidence. And, obviously, to finish well – to have enough in the tank for a strong finish without either blowing up too early, or leaving anything on the track. So, in football, being a low scoring sport, it is unusual for … [continue reading]
What To Expect
Despite defeat at St Mirren, those that produce Expected Points models are still indicating Celtic have an expected lead over their opponents. @TheGersReport takes the underlying performance data and projects the season forwards on the basis that results will track to that data. His model has Celtic winning the league by 24 points! Note this … [continue reading]
Jota and O’Riley Lead The Way
As we prepare for the SPFL to start up again, following the international break, here are the leaders in the Expected Scoring Contribution stakes. Expected Scoring Contribution (xSC) is a bit of a mouthful but simply is: Expected Goals per 90m + Expected Assists Per 90m = Expected Scoring Contribution per 90m Or xG90 + … [continue reading]
The Taming of the Blues
The Derby last Sunday unfurled in the manner of the classic three act play. (That is my artifice and I am sticking to it). Act One In which the Evil King exerts a brutal dominance! Gasp! Horror! Celtic’s first 7 minutes were, to use technical football parlance, a bit rubbish. With so much riding on … [continue reading]
Derby Day Data
Here are the match stats from the Derby on Sunday. Highlights Note there are some disparities in xG based on data provider. Statsbomb claim the most sophisticated model. I believe my own overstates The Rangers chances compared to that one due to the pressure being applied and the height of the ball for e.g. Roofe’s … [continue reading]
Impact of Missing Morelos
The Rangers manager has confirmed Morelos’s absence from Sunday’s Derby. Undoubtedly a loss for the home side – he is their top scorer with 18 goals in 42 appearances. Is this a big positive for Celtic? In 18 matches versus Celtic in the 5 seasons he has been in Scottish football, here are Morelos’s goal … [continue reading]
Who Has The Creative Derby Edge?
In tight matches the ability to create chances under pressure is key. With the Derby approaching, which squad has the most creative threat? This chart is a hybrid of xA data taken from Opta/FotMob and Key Chances data from Statsbomb. Both are per 90m. I’ve included all full backs, midfielders, wingers and strikers likely to … [continue reading]