The emergence of McGregor and Christie at the heart of midfield has undoubtedly reenergised Celtic. To the eye they play quicker and with more forward thrust. This has largely come about through serendipity. The injuries to captain Brown and others forced this arrangement. We may have a great manager but do we also have a lucky one?
A common comment I see in reaction to my posts is that Brown “slows the game down”. Also, that McGregor moves the ball forward with more purpose. I understand this intuitively but will always consider how the data can asses such a phenomenon. I showed in Brown and McGregor: The Great Debate how McGregor plays more risky forward passes. The number 6 role at Celtic is key in setting overall tempo, but how has the team performed overall with and without Brown in that crucial role?
For the purposes of this analysis I have compared team level performance with and without Brown in the starting XI. Brown has started 19 matches (the first 18 of the season plus the 1-1 draw with Motherwell) and not started 12 (I have not yet captured data for the Kilmarnock 5-1 game).
At a very basic level the team completes far less passes without Brown in the team – nearly 100 less. Celtic complete an average of 544 open play passes with Brown and 448 without. Now I have previously argued that the increased passing rate under Rodgers compared to Deila could be because Celtic move the ball quicker hence log more passes. I can’t have it both ways and now suggest a lower pass completion rate means the same thing, So, it is ambiguous. Don’t worry, I have other data!
Celtic pass the ball less accurately without their captain, by 3%. Which doesn’t feel like a good thing but the hypothesis is that there is now more risk in the Hoops game. And we can measure this with reference to Packing. Those are passes that are forward and take out opponents – therefore riskier as they are breaking the opposition defensive lines. With Brown in the team Celtic average 48 Pack Passes per 90m but this rises to 55 without him. Given the reduction in overall pass volume without Brown, the percentage of passes that take out opponents goes up from 8% of all passes to 12% Pack Passes without him.
Possession under Brown’s direction is 68% compared to 60% without. There may be such a thing as too much possession, or possession for its own sake.
The evidence above suggests without the captain the team does indeed get the ball forward more quickly without regard to possession above all.
Surely this will result in more shots? Well, only slightly. Total Shots has gone up from 16.53 to 17.58 without the captain. But as you know shot quality is as important as just volume of shots.
The contrast is, frankly, stark. Celtic are scoring 0.5 goals per game more and this is no fluke. Their xG value has gone up by almost precisely the same value. The starkness is exacerbated by the inevitable correction to Celtic’s conversion rates. Celtic are now outperforming their xG by 0.1 goal per 90m in contrast to the start of the season. Indeed, Celtic have now increased their shot conversion rate as follows:
Now there are probably many factors that are contributing to this and this article is NOT intended as a Brown bashing exercise. But the fact remains that without the leader, the team is dramatically improving chance conversion rates.
If we turn to the quality of the chances created, the Expected Assists value allows us to do this. Again, as per shots, the actual volume of chances created has little changed. There is a modest uplift in chances created without Brown in the team from 14.42 to 14.58. But assessing the quality of chances sees that xA is up from 1.71 to 2.14 per 90m. In short: Celtic are creating better quality chances despite not creating a larger volume of chances.
Celtic’s average quality of chance without Brown increases as follows:
The quality of each shot has gone up significantly without Brown – from 0.122 to 0.142 xG per shot. And this is without measuring the Kilmarnock game.
This analysis focussing on attacking output with and without our captain. The amount of possession decreases but the volume and % of higher risk passes increases. Furthermore, despite their being minimal increases in both shots and chances created, the quality of chances has increased significantly. Consequently, conversion and actual goals scored are markedly up without the talismanic Brown.
Look, this is not an exercise in criticising a player that will go down as a legend for this club, and likely a legacy of being their second most feted captain ever.
But time marches on and teams evolve. Celtic have undergone a dramatic recalibration in central midfield with the emergence of a McGregor-Christie access. PARTLY (there will be other factors) this seems to have coincided with a dramatic upturn in attacking output.
I have not considered defensive performance (but see the aforementioned article showing how McGregor has adapted his game personally). It is a small sample. The 5-1 rout of Kilmarnock is not factored in.
I can’t measure passing or player movement speed. But the circumstantial evidence all points to a more potent Celtic team less focussed on possession above all, and forcing the ball forward quicker with a resulting uptick in chance quality.
And it looks like a significant changing of the guard is happening before our eyes in this key central midfield position. Remarkable.
None of this detracts from a wonderful player’s legacy.
Iain in Alberta says
Great work once again. The emergence of Christie is probably helping to increase the conversion of shots to goals and xG per shot as Christie has staked his place, along with Calmac, while Brown and Ntcham have been out of the team. This factor might help to explain the “with /without Brown” stats. What I am saying is that the combination of Calmac and Christie is more potent than Brown and Ntcham. I believe you mentioned BR being a lucky manager as well a a good manager, which this would support.
p says
Well written. Factual analysis, but with an eye to the heartstrings of the support that love Broony.
Davy g says
I think Celtic attacking is different class with brown out of the team he has been a great player for Celtic which we should never forget I would bring brown on if we were a couple of goals up all this playing side to side then back to Gordon is boring stuff when brow is on
Charlie Connelly says
Great article,I think it could be pick the right combo for each specific game. I also love Broony but the team is playing really well without him.Who’d be a manager eh. Just Charlie in Cape Town thoughts.
Alan Buckley says
Well wrote article but my question is how many passes go forawrd with brown in and out of the the team comapred to back passing as well
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
I don’t specifically log that as there aren’t enough hours in the day. But overall passing data plus packing data allows inference.
Mikey says
Can this be weighted for quality of opposition?
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Well. In he missed both Salzburg and Leipzig away and Leipzig home. Those are CL quality sides. And he missed a LC Semi and Final. So using that argument strengthens the point of the article.
James Barr says
I often wonder if Brendan considers the data you provide.
Duncan says
Another great article bud.
The transformation for me is fairly simple and straightforward:
Brown and McGregor are two very different types of player who through circumstance have found themselves playing in the same area of the Park.
Brown was a box to box Midfielder who built his entire game around his incredible stamina and aggression which for most of his career had him covering distances on the Park beyond most around him?
I remember reading he was averaging 13-14 km per game every week when at Hibs and I think this was one of the main factors he was signed.
A natural leader on the pitch he leads by example.
He’s not gifted with great technical ability however his strengths in Reading a game and being able to be in the right area at the right time and affect it by doing so made up for any weakness in that area.
Age ultimately forced him to drop deeper as Deila firstly imposed the pressing game and demanded higher output especially from the attack.
As a result Nrown found a natural home as an out and out Defensive Mid covering the backline and breaking up attacks much like Lenny when he was at Celtic.
McGregor is cut from an entirely different cloth though in terms of engine and stamina the wee man has this aspect to his game as well.
Difference is he has far more about him on the technical front and is more suited to attack than the defensive side Broonie excels in.
As a result Callum’s role in the same area of the Park is more akin to a deep lying playmaker who’s first instinct is to look up and play a forward or attack minded pass.
He difference between the two is chalk and cheese in this regard as we tend to reach the ball far more across the field and back into defence when a Broonie is in there whereas Callum drops deep to collect then instantly look to play it forward.
This has resulted in a change of tactics when it’s McGregor ,Rogic -Christie more akin to a 4-3-3 than the 4-2-3-1 when Brown and Ntcham are involved.
The change is tempo has been very obvious and it is my opinion that when Brendan altered the Midfield against Motherwell by dropping Rogic and introducing Brown into the mix our tempo in attack had dropped and we reverted back to recycling-possession football which was highlighted by the 93% possession we had in the first half.
We only created 8 shots in that game yet had bossed it for an entire half.
Brendan then decided to revert back to the McGregor , Rogic -Christie trio v Killie and hey presto the tempo is back and we are playing attacking ,free flowing aggressive football against one of the toughest defences in the League?
Ripping them to shreds.
The key is this trio and the key factor within it is the Regista role that McGregor plays.
I am a big fan of Brown have been since he signed in fact but the fact is time catches up with all players and I think sadly time has caught up with Broonie.
The exciting thing is in McGregor we have a player who is improving all the time and only just getting into playing this role?
Exciting times ahead.
HH
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Thanks for taking the time to write that. Many good points. I’m astonished at how quickly we are where we are. Exciting time and Brown still has a role.
Duncan says
Thank you for taking the time and effort to supply these stats bud.
I agree if we rotate Brown and McGregor I think it could extend Broonies career at the Club though I think now the tables may be turning on who starts most games.
It is very exciting we could well have our own wee “Holy Trinity” emerging at the Club with McGregor Rogic and Christie.
I think Ntcham might be punted if a decent offer is made this Summer.
Duncan says
I should also add that speed of passing may also be a factor ie how quickly both players release it after receiving it.
For me McGregor seems to have more urgency whereas Broonie might tend to pick his pass with more thought.
He was guilty of poor passing for an extended period under Deila in his second Season.
Hence why I think he is more deliberate now under Brendan.