What can defensive metrics tell us about contributions to the Double Treble? Defensive Action Success Rate (DASR%) is a composite of defensive actions successful and unsuccessful.
The Glossary snaps into the challenge to dispose doubt.
DASR% is (I believe) a very useful single measure of all round defensive competence. It takes tackles, aerial challenges, interceptions, shield outs, blocked crosses, blocked shots, missed tackles, and fouls to create an overall % score. The higher the score the more key defensive actions the player is successful on.
Looking back over four seasons of data it tests well. The top scoring central defender (central defenders undertake more defensive actions that any other position) is Van Dijk on 81%. When I wrote Head Bhoy in April, Ajer was performing at that 81% level which caused some excitement. At the other end of a small scale, the recently departed Sviatchenko scored 74% in his time here which is the lowest of the central defenders in the last four seasons. So we are talking about small margins between “Great” and “Average”. A few % points at most.
Defenders – DASR%
Ajer maintained his position as top defender by this measure (79%) but his overall score could not stay at Van Dijk levels. He managed to win 10.88 challenges / intercepts per 90m that is 1.7 more than anyone else.
Analysing the raw values shows that whilst Simunovic had the lowest DASR of the regular central defenders (74%) he lost the least number of challenges/intercepts (2.3 per 90m) whilst winning a low 6.71 per 90m. This may reflect his role as the “second” or “sweeping” central defender. If paired with Boyata or Ajer those players would tend to be the more assertive attackers of the ball. Also, Simunovic tends to try and defend through positioning rather than direct action (although he does dive in occasionally).
Bitton’s numbers are probably a surprise but vindicate to an extent Rodgers move to reskill him into a new position. He is also an adept passer being a deep lying playmaker at heart. Finally, I showed in Central Defender Consistency that he is also the most consistent in terms of maintaining a steady DASR game on game. However, I will be doing an article on defensive errors and this is where you must look at a variety of data points in the round to form a holistic view. And I will round it all up at the end.
Boyata I would classify as having turned into a very steady defender. If we ranked the central defenders over the last few years by DASR he would come comfortably in the middle. This is not to damn with faint praise – Rodgers clearly trusts him and likes his attitude.
Lustig’s numbers are because although he has spent time at centre back, the full back position will see less defensive actions.
Tierney’s number reflects that fact he does not do much defending especially in domestic games. He is in fact on the receiving end of defensive actions as he hares down the left wing.
I would be a little concerned with Hendry’s data accepting 1. a small sample and 2. he has spent time at full back. He is unsuccessful with more challenges and intercepts than the rest perhaps indicative of either poor decision making or poor timing.
Midfielders – DASR%
No surprise Brown is the leading midfielder by this metric. What is perhaps surprising is how close he is to defender values and how far ahead of other midfielders he is (15%). The latter is a concern as the 32-year-old cannot be expected to hold the midfield together defensively over 60 matches year after year. He needs more support. Kouassi did not play enough minutes to be reported.
The other midfielders tend to have more attacking roles and Armstrong and Ntcham are similar across many metrics. McGregor has been more of a robust presence this season but is never going to be a midfield pit bull!
Forrest has always been the top defensive winger over the four seasons. Rogic plays the furthest forward of the group and loses 8.39 challenges per game ahead of only the slight Roberts on 8.80.
Main take away – Brown needs more help.
Forwards – DASR%
For completeness I’ll include the strikers including Sinclair who has relatively little defensive responsibility. Modern football means defending from the front and Celtic’s (more occasional this season) pressing starts from the attackers.
No surprise Dembele is the most robust forward and he wins twice the number of challenges Griffiths does and nearly three times the number Sinclair manages. He also loses far more challenges – nearly 11 per 90m. Celtic tend to play more directly on occasion when Dembele plays and this reflects that he loses 4.19 aerial challenges per 90m, nearly double the others.
Griffiths’ data is closer to Edouards than I expected and Griffiths has been noticeably improved in terms of hold up play this season.
Sinclair, playing wider, has the least number of challenges won and lost which, playing wider, is to be expected.
Summary
DASR% is a useful indicator of defensive performance – the results pass the reasonableness test.
Ajer is the leading defender this year by this measure but over the coming days I’ll outline other defensive performance indicators before summarising where we are at the end.