Getting the best from Kyogo

Whilst Celtic won again at the weekend to maintain a gap at the top of the SPFL Premiership, the manner of the 1-0 defeat of Ross County irked many in the support.

A failure to build on a first minute Alistair Johnston deflected strike meant some nervy moments at the end of the match as the visitors threw everything at an equaliser.

Had Luis Palma converted a twice-taken 28th-minute penalty this would surely have assuaged fears but instead it was another frustrating afternoon for main striker Kyogo Furuhashi, with one strike at goal and two touches in the box. The smile is noticeably absent from the normally affable Japanese’s face these days.

In all competitions, he has a reasonable 11 goals. However, the following response to an article I wrote on Celtic By Numbers highlights succinctly the extent to which his goal threat metrics are diminished this season.

@Sweetie44444 commented on the X platform:

G/xG is the ratio of goals to expected goals. SoT/shot is the percentage of all shots that are on target. G/shot is the percentage of shots that result in goals. All numbers are for the SPFL only.

To place these performances into context, @Sweetie44444 goes on to highlight scoring ratios versus expected goals for some of the elite strikers in Europe (and Alfredo Morelos).

Furuhashi’s 1.69 goals to xG ratio is higher than all the listed elite striker performances in the last two seasons. Bear in mind league quality, of course.

At 29, is this natural age-related regression, or has the switch to a new manager and a different approach stymied the talisman, or has the service deteriorated?

Age

It is certainly possible but difficult to extrapolate without physical performance data which remains highly sensitive and not public.

In terms of proxy for physicality, the number of pressures is down from 13.02 to 10.9 as is the number of pressure regains. In context, Celtic are pressing more aggressively under Brendan Rodgers and therefore this may hint at a physical decline in this intensive activity.

The qualitative eye test would say that Furuhashi continues to make a prodigious number of runs without the ball, many of which are either unseen or ignored by teammates. I don’t have metrics for off-ball movement, in many ways the holy grail of data analysis, but to the naked eye, the seeking out of space behind defences remains a constant endeavour for him.

System vs Individual

This remains a very difficult attribution – that is, to what extent is performance being influenced by individuals versus the system?

Data tends to track individual on-ball actions. Team-level data is an aggregation of that and can allow inferences.

Let’s go back to the shots that are being generated for the striker.

Here is the FotMob shot map for Furuhashi from 2022-23.

A pleasing concentration in the middle of the six-yard box. Very few shots outside the width of that same box, and an even smaller volume of efforts from outside the area. Last season in all competitions, Furuhashi attempted 91 percent of all shots from inside the box – a remarkable tally he’d bettered the season before with 93 percent.

Here is the same view for this season:

Note that the average xG per shot has decreased from 0.2 to 0.16. There are only three efforts inside the six-yard box.

If we compare the volume of those with the highest xG then there were 24 percent of higher than 0.2 per shot 2022-23 and only 10 percent this term.

This season he has 2.4 xG from efforts from through balls. Last season that was 4.02 but for the whole season. However, this season Celtic are attempting 5.13 through balls per game as opposed to 4.13 last season. Meaning, that despite the volume of earlier and longer passes trying to exploit his pace in behind, these types of passes are no more successful than last season.

Furuhashi’s attempts from inside the box have fallen to 79 percent therefore a higher volume of lower xG value attempts.

In the league, he had eight goals from 24 open play crosses in 2022-23 but that is now zero from only eight attempts.

On that topic, Celtic has had well-documented issues in the wide areas, and with key creative personnel depleted from last season (Jota, Aaron Mooy have left whilst Reo Hatate and Liel Abada have been absent for long periods) have the stand-ins stood up?

Here are the chance creators for Furuhashi from last season in terms of volume (number of chances created) and quality (expected assist value of the chances):

Matt O’Riley was the main source of chances for Furuhashi both by volume and quality and provided seven direct assists throughout the campaign.

But the next four creators have largely been unavailable during this season.

So, have the replacements and deputies stepped up?

Short answer, no.

O’Riley has already provided as many chances for Furuhashi (17) as the whole of last season. There is then a long drop-off to Abada who has hardly featured.

Greg Taylor and Callum McGregor have taken on some of the heavy lifting in terms of the volume of chances created but these don’t tend to be high-quality efforts.

Given the minutes on the pitch Luis Palma has spent with Furuhashi, five chances created represent slim pickings!

From the other flank, the combined efforts of Maeda, Yang, and Forrest do not come close to replicating the service from the right last term.

Similarly, so far Paolo Bernardo has not been able to connect with his striker to the same extent that Hatate managed.

In response, it seems Furuhashi is wandering, looking for work.

Here are his respective heat maps for league games only, courtesy of Sofascore, for the two seasons:

The focus in the centre of the six-yard box last season is represented by that fiery red blob. Activity outside the box is sporadic. This term we have heavy concentrations in the “ten space” outside the box, and less concentrated activity across the penalty box, less focussed within the danger zone in front of the goal.

It is the difference between intense focus on scoring and getting into the positions to score, versus more varied movement and positioning.

Summary

Brendan Rodgers has been adamant that the instructions for Furuhashi have not changed as described by Celtis Are Here. Clearly, there is some tension between how Rodgers sees his role, and the execution of that. The player feels the need to make different movements to try and get on the ball.

What I feel is clear is that the service to him is not of the quality and quantity that he experienced last season.

The continual inconsistency of wing play is a major factor in that. But also, there is an overreliance on O’Riley connecting to him from midfield and that burden needs to be shared to avoid a single point of failure risk.

Celtic has an elite-level striker in the context of the SPFL Premiership and his ability to finish the chances provided. All parties need to work out how to get back to the laser-focused provision of chances and positioning of their main striker for the rest of the season.