Novacula Occami or Occam’s Razor is a principle that the simplest explanation is often the most likely to be correct.
It is a principle applied to problem solving.
The problem many Celtic supporters are trying to solve is why the club would seemingly sell two valued first team players so cheaply.
Firstly, global go-to transfer guru Fabrizio Romana has Giorgos Giakoumakis on his way to Japan (oh, the irony) for a “package” of four million Euros. A wag on Twitter (apologies to that account for me not remembering who it was) stated he’ll be at Celtic in two years. But, plot twist, MLS side Atlanta is also trying to sign him.
Last week we had stories of Josip Juranovic, Croatia’s first choice right back and World Cup standout, leaving the Scottish Champions for Italian club Monza (nice Subbuteo kit, but who?) for a figure around £7 million after an initial loan. Whilst that specific deal appears to be off, the likely transfer figure raised eyebrows amongst many.
Transfer fees are of course, a tricky business. What will the market pay? Or, equally importantly, what conditions exist within contracts?
The growth and usage of transfermarkt.co.uk even extends to the day-to-day operations within the world of professional football we are told. In the UK, the likes of Stefan Bienkowski and team come up with valuations for players based on judgement. These numbers reflect the market value of a player all else being equal with no regard for length of current contract or any clauses – essentially what a player would be worth in a free market. Great responsibility should be placed around their valuations, therefore.
As it is judgemental and the valuations are subject to the knowledge base and biases we all have (yes, even Scottish referees), the numbers can be fanciful. A quick comparison of the relative squads of Celtic and The Rangers is entertaining of nothing else (Glenn Kamara seven and a half million Euros to Matt O’Riley five million Euros; Alfredo Morelos ten million Euros to Kyogo Furuhashi six million Euros – lol). For balance, they seem to have adjusted them recently after much ridicule.
For what it is worth, they have Juranovic valued at nine million Euros and Giakoumakis at five million Euros.
So, even by transfermarkt’s speculative valuations, the mooted sums for the two seem low.
What the hell?
Public Data
Let us take a look at what we know as opposed to what we speculate about.
Contract Negotiations
The Scottish media reported on 15th November 2022 that Juranovic had rejected an offer of a new contract. The news was broken by Stephen McGowan, a reporter at the Daily Mail with seemingly strong links inside Celtic Park.
Following on from 1st December were reports that Giakoumakis had, similarly, rejected the offer of a new contract from the club.
Transfer Activity
Celtic completed the singing of Canadian World Cup star Alistair Johnston, predominantly a right back on a right back, on 3rd December 2022. This was a mere two weeks after the Juranovic contract story broke.
On the face of it, and given the £3.5m fee, Johnston was not acquired to be third choice after Juranovic and Anthony Ralston.
Celtic were also reported as being in contact with the South Korean internationalist Cho Gue-sung. News of this started to appear from 30th November, the same day the Giakoumakis contract impasse was reported. Subsequent reports stated contact had been made prior to the World Cup started in mid-November with his club Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors.
Whilst this transfer appears to have fizzled out amidst interest from other clubs, rumours of the player holding out for another deal/better league, and his club raising the asking price following Cho’s successful World Cup, it seems Celtic are actively in the market for a striker.
Razorlight
Back to what this may all mean, through the filter of the most likely scenario.
Celtic seem to have offered new contracts to players who each have three and a half years left on their contracts.
Why would Celtic negotiate new contracts in this situation?
Neither player cost a lot in terms of initial transfer fees. Juranovic was a reported £2.75m from Legia Warsaw. This seemed a bargain for an established Croatian internationalist.
Similarly, Giakoumakis cost a reported £2.4m from VVV Venlo of the Netherlands. Although VVV Venlo had suffered a relegation from the Dutch top flight, this, again, represented great value for the top scorer in the Eredivise.
It seems neither player is on the top of the wage structure. The salarysport.com has Juranovic on £16k per week and Giakoumakis on £12k. I am sure actual remuneration packages are more complex than a basic weekly wage, but even allowing for some variance, that is likely a way short of top earner status.
Bear in mid Juranovic is now 27 years-old and Giakoumakis 28. Their respective next contracts are likely to be the last chance for a lucrative package as it will take them into their 30s and likely wage regression.
Given the above, is the most likely scenario that both were brought in to the club on good but not top wages mitigated by buyout clauses? After nearly 18 months and with both proving their value, the club has tried to renegotiate contracts to improve wages and remove any buy out clauses. This has been unsuccessful for whatever reasons, and now the club are actively recruiting to replace.
That means that whatever initial buy out clauses were extant are all other clubs need to meet to purchase the players.
From Ange Postecoglou’s perspective you are either committed or you are not. If you are not, you are out. As an aside, the selection of Juranovic versus Kilmarnock in the League Cup Semi Final was therefore a plot twist in this regard.
Summary
There will be, I am sure, lessons to be learned for the club.
However, on the face of it, Celtic have had the services of two experienced international players for 18 months relatively cheaply, and may make a modest profit on sale. Given their respective ages, maybe it is our expectations as supporters that need to adjust.
Excellent piece. I think that the culture of the club needs to be an honest one. If we woo players into signing on the basis that offers will be entertained after X period of time, and we don’t walk the walk when the time comes, then word gets around. Agents talk, and the next time you’re trying to woo an equivalent player, they will no doubt be advised not to sign with Celtic. Juranovic basically made a sideways move in coming to Celtic when it is possible he could have secured a move to a bigger platform/league and taken his chances (and the money). He signed for us, has served us well. IF promises have been made (and particularly/obviously if they are specified in his contract), then these must be honoured. Otherwise, the next signing becomes all the more difficult.
I remember we got Henrik because of a €650,000 buyout clause in his contract. That may be the last time I’ve heard of such a thing. If either or both players do leave I’ll wish them all the very best and thank them for their great service to Celtic.
Rab
Most (at least, many) contracts have buy out clauses. But often they’re set at a high level. Part of the condition for getting these players to sign in the first place (given that neither is young and if there was any chance of them getting a more favourable move than Celtic, it would have to happen within a couple of years of signing) may have been that the buy out clause had to be modest.
What people forget is that Celtic have an enormous hurdle to attempt to jump later this year in the form of class action on behalf of 20/30 former members of Celtic Boys Club.
If successful the damages will run to many millions of pounds. I believe that there are some former CBC members now living in the USA with keen eye on the outcome – should they raise an action on the back of a successful Scottish one, the result could be catastrophic for Celtic – damages in a US court would dwarf anything awarded here.
This is an existential issue for our club – is it any wonder it is being prudent.
Peter Lawwell has been brought back as Chairman to handle the flack.
John
Are you aware that Celtic have had malpractice insurance since Fergus McCann’s time at the club?
That’s why the cases are in the hands of lawyers and insurers.
The club won’t be paying compensation but the tragic victims will see compensation eventually, you will be happy to hear.
However it would be interesting to hear your thoughts on your current club claiming to be the old club that died yet telling the victims of horrendous abuse by Dunn and Neely to go to the liquidators of your old club that is 6 feet under.
I approved this as you were civil and your point about Lawwell is well made
But fair warning
Anyone who uses this topic to score points about football will be barred as regards future comments
Damages in an American court? Someone doesn’t understand how International Private Law works……
Excellent analysis as always, Alan. I think in acquiring these two in the first place, Celtic may have envisioned a short shelf life for both, given their relative experience and it was always on the cards to eventually recruit younger, improved versions. Having done so in JJs case we anxiously await the outcome of our new striker quest.
A well laid out argument as always, Alan. If for argument’s sake there was a 7m buyout clause on JJ is it still possible to provoke a bidding war or can his agent decide to sign up with any club who meets the 7m threshold? I’m still hopeful of a big sale as many of the big clubs often wait until the final week of the window due to various domino scenarios.