Who scores the goals? The traditional pundit often attests the only numbers that matter are in the top left-hand corner of your screen – the game score. Goals are rare in football, around 3 per match, and goal scorers priceless. But those interested in performance know that to score a goal takes a team, and many components.
As always, unfamiliar terms are addressed, exhaustively, in the de-discombobulater I more conventionally call the Glossary.
As with yesterday, for most of the metrics I will discount those who have played less minutes than Roberts. That is: Ajer, Dembele, Miller, Benyu, Sviatchenko, Edouard, Boyata and Kouassi. A shame we have so little data for Edouard and Dembele as Griffiths is the only striker in the analysis. But there are more international breaks to come!
On Your Marks……
There are the players who provide the passes to enable goal scoring opportunities. We dealt with the “creatives” yesterday in a bit of Bully called What You Could Have Won.
If we break down what is takes to score goals, you first must receive the ball in dangerous positions. This requires good movement, awareness, control, and strength. Speed of thought and movement are required. It helps to receive the ball closer to goal, preferably in the box where the highest probabilities of scoring exist. I have two means to measure this.
Pack Receives
I dealt with Pack Passes yesterday, and at the other end of the pass needs to be a receiver to take control of the pass and keep the move going. The Pack Receiver. They receive the same benefit for number of opponents bypassed as the passer. These top Pack Receivers are the one’s making the good runs, taking a pass under pressure in advanced areas of the pitch. So, this isn’t receiving any pass, it must have taken out at least one opponent (one opponent less nearer the goal than when the pass was made).
Rogic leads the way with 14.83 per 90m. The strong, tall Australian is not the traditional number 10, but his physique assists him in taking passes from deep into feet, and building attacks.
Sinclair is adept at taking the ball on the half turn and quickly facing forwards for the next action. Once again, Hayes figures well, despite perceptions of his overall form thus far.
Tierney is often in advanced positions wide left, in advance of Sinclair and provides a wider outlet.
I also measure Pass Receive Impect – this is the total value of all opponents taken out by passes where you get 3 points for taking out a defender, 2 for a midfielder and 1 for a forward. Those with highest Pass Receive Impect have contributed to actions removing the most defensive opponents from the game.
Griffiths leads the way, improving greatly his movement and close control. Sinclair and Rogic are not far behind. Given the number of players being taken out, this implies a high difficulty of pass, and therefore a high degree of difficulty of receiving the ball. This metric suggests the higher end movement and control.
Penalty Box Possession
A further predictor of goal threat is the ability to receive possession in the penalty box. The probability of scoring increases greatly within those zones.
The only surprise here is that the one striker on the list, Griffiths, is not the most prolific penalty box artisan. He will often shoot from distance rather than play as a penalty box striker, which is where Dembele provides this variety. Of the attacking midfielders, McGregor has been particularly effective this season making 3.69 material excursions into the box each game.
Get Set…..
And to score, clearly, you need to have shots. But not all shots are equal, as the Expected Goals models tell us. Who is taking the most shots, and are they getting them on target?
Unsurprisingly, from this population, Griffiths attempts the most shots, but only 1.99 from 5.31 hit the target. Similarly, Rogic is only hitting the target with 0.75 from 3.99 per 90m. Sinclair is by far the most efficient, with Forrest not far behind.
Sinclair’s 56% of all shots on target is very high and it seems unlikely he can maintain that. Last season the highest in the squad was Dembele with 43%.
What also helps is to take shots inside the box. Celtic are blessed with high quality long shooters in Armstrong, Griffiths and Rogic, but efforts from distance are inherently low probability. Good shot selection is a skill.
Once again, Sinclair shines in that he has attempted 86% of all his shots from within the opposition penalty box. Not surprisingly, he and Forrest figure highly in goals scored. Griffiths has scored 2 free kicks in his Celtic career and may reflect on the impact that has on his paltry 54% in box efforts.
I have been banging on about Ntcham and poor shot selection. 2 goals do not compensate as both benefited from fortunate deflections – that luck will not hold over the long term. Rogic may also reflect on his shot selection.
Go…..
Goals. All that matters, surely? Here is the league table.
Double figures before the clocks go back is a fine achievement, and especially with 6 in Europe where Sinclair had never previously scored. Both Forrest and McGregor are on for personal best seasons already.
Drawing the line with at least 4 shots on target, what is the xG of the shots players have had on target?
Three of the four top scorers have the highest xG of shots on target. Griffiths with his fine finishing ability gets away with a lower xG but surely can improve on shot selection? Hayes once again appears to be unlucky to not register a single goal. Surprisingly, Ntcham’s efforts are on average, higher xG value than Armstrong and Rogic.
But regular readers will know that luck e.g. deflections (Ntcham) play a part. We measure Expected Goals (xG) which tells us what you should have expected to score based on the shot quality selection.
Celtic generally outperform the average in the Scottish league having better players and exerting more pressure. Hence the number of player out performing their xG. McGregor, in particular, has finished off chances harder than his goal tally would suggest. Will this continue or will his goal tally revert to the mean over time?
Once again Hayes, who would have expected at least 1 goal by now, seems a little unlucky.
Celtic have had 10 Big Chances this season, and Sinclair has had 5 of them, scoring 3 times. A long season lies ahead, but no doubting Rodgers’ star signing has started in style with great shot selection and execution.