This edition covers fixtures from the 6th February to the present – up match day 28.
The impact of a call being incorrect can be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
18/02/23 Livingston vs The Rangers
Incident 1
Referee | David Dickinson |
Game Minute | 24th |
Score At Time | 0-0 |
Incident | Morelos goes up for a header |
Outcome | Penalty to TRFC following VAR review |
Evidence | (19) Livingston 0-3 Rangers | Tavernier Scores Penalty and Free Kick! | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 0:21 |
Incident 2
Referee | David Dickinson |
Game Minute | 38th |
Score At Time | 0-1 |
Incident | Stephen Kelly fouls Kamara |
Outcome | Foul to TRFC; YC to Kelly |
Evidence | (19) Livingston 0-3 Rangers | Tavernier Scores Penalty and Free Kick! | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 1:28 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Initial on field decision: Free kick to Rangers and yellow card shown to Kelly
Kelly over runs the ball and in attempting to slide tackle and recover the ball, he lunges in late on Kamara. Given the studs are showing and the challenge is slightly off the ground, this is clearly a yellow card, reckless challenge but also there is a case to answer as to if this was actually a sending off offence.
I had to watch the replay several times before settling on the decision that a yellow card was, on the balance, the correct decision. Yes, the studs are off the ground but Kelly appears to recognise at the last second he won’t get to the ball first and so pulls his leg back and this take some of the ‘sting’ and impact out of the actual contact. If a red card had been shown at the time I would not have been surprised, but don’t feel there is enough here to say the yellow card was the wrong decision either.
Verdict: Correct decision to caution Kelly for the foul. |
Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
Incident 3
Referee | David Dickinson |
Game Minute | 77th |
Score At Time | 0-1 |
Incident | Omeonga challenges Roofe |
Outcome | Foul to TRFC; second YC to Omeonga and RC |
Evidence | (19) Livingston 0-3 Rangers | Tavernier Scores Penalty and Free Kick! | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 4:15 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Omeonga challenges Roofe
Initial on field decision: Foul to Rangers and Omeonga sent off for second bookable offence.
Omeonga goes to close down the Rangers forward and appears to catch him with the smallest of impacts. I do believe there is a foul committed here but feel the Livingston defender will feel hard done by to have collected his 2nd yellow card of the game for this soft looking foul. It is my belief that the referee has shown the second yellow card and ultimately the resulting red card, as he feels the foul stopped a promising attack. Although there is an element of subjectivity over what any one person feels is a ‘promising attack’, it is my opinion here that this was not a promising attack. Roofe is outside the box, going away from goal. There are four or five defenders around and no Rangers player close by in support, who look like they might immediately benefit from Roofe’s potential next passage of play.
Verdict Incorrect decision. Foul is committed but a sending off for 2nd bookable offence was not the expected sanction outcome. |
Expected Points
Outcome |
TRFC +0.86 xPts |
04/03/23 The Rangers vs Kilmarnock
Incident 1
Referee | Willie Collum |
Game Minute | 45th |
Score At Time | 2-0 |
Incident | Ball hits Alebiosu in the box |
Outcome | Penalty to TRFC after VAR review, for handball |
Evidence | (19) Rangers 3-1 Kilmarnock | Excellent First Half Display At Ibrox | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 1:58 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Ball hits Alebiosu in the box
Initial on field decision: Penalty to Rangers for handball following VAR review The fact I had to watch this clip about 10 times to even spot an incident worthy of VAR review makes me suspect this will have been a contentious decision at the time. I just don’t agree with the decision at all to award a penalty for hand ball. What I see is a defender and attacker both competing for the same space and after their initial contact, Alebiosu is knocked off balance and falls forward. For me, his arm is a natural position in the context of his tussle with the Rangers player. The ball kicks up off the surface and he makes no attempt to move his arm anywhere else. I found the decision to recommend a VAR review and the referee to then award a penalty for hand ball both baffling decisions.
Verdict: Incorrect decision to penalise for hand ball and award a penalty kick. No foul committed |
Expected Points
Outcome |
TRFC +0.16 xPts |
Incident 2
Referee | Willie Collum |
Game Minute | 55th |
Score At Time | 3-0 |
Incident | McGregor and McKenzie clash in the box |
Outcome | No decision |
Evidence | (19) Rangers 3-1 Kilmarnock | Excellent First Half Display At Ibrox | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 2:50 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | McGregor bundles into McKenzie in the box
Initial on field decision: No decision.
There is a coming together between the two players after the ball has bounced out of their reach. Minimal contact here and I suspect McKenzie leaves his leg dangling when he knows he’s not getting near the ball. I would not have been expecting a penalty to be awarded here.
Verdict: Correct decision to not award a foul. |
Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
Incident 3
Referee | Willie Collum |
Game Minute | 60th |
Score At Time | 3-0 |
Incident | Dorsett scores for Kilmarnock |
Outcome | Goal to Kilmarnock |
Evidence | (19) Rangers 3-1 Kilmarnock | Excellent First Half Display At Ibrox | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 3:32 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Dorsett scores for Kilmarnock
Initial on field decision: Goal awarded to Kilmarnock
Dorsett scores from close range after his team mate wins a header at the back post. There is a question as to does the team mate push down on the shoulders of the Rangers player marking him and stop him from competing for the ball. For me the Rangers player is backing in his man and does not actually make any attempt at all to jump for the ball. In this situation. It is only the Kilmarnock that makes any attempt to jump and as such I do not feel he unfairly impedes the Rangers player and therefore agree with the on-field decision to allow the goal.
Verdict: Correct decision to award the goal. |
Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
05/03/23 St Mirren vs Celtic
Incident 1
Referee | David Dickinson |
Game Minute | 6th |
Score At Time | 0-0 |
Incident | Ball hits Taylor in the box |
Outcome | Penalty to St Mirren following VAR review |
Evidence | (19) St. Mirren 1-5 Celtic | Celtic Thrash St. Mirren To Stay Nine Points Clear | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 0:00 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Ball hits Taylor in the box
Initial on field decision: Penalty to St Mirren after VAR review.
St Mirren player flicks ball up and it hits Taylor arm inside the box. Some sympathy for Taylor as there is little reaction after the ball is flicked up. However, his arm is outstretched and the arm clearly blocks the ball from its intended path. The arm is a lot higher than where the expected contact of the ball is and so I feel this makes his body unnaturally bigger and not justifiable by situational movement so a foul has been committed.
Verdict: Correct decision to award the penalty for hand ball offence. |
Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
Incident 2
Referee | David Dickinson |
Game Minute | 38th |
Score At Time | 1-0 |
Incident | Dunne challenges Kyogo |
Outcome | Foul to Celtic; RC to Dunne; Penalty to Celtic rescinded following VAR review |
Evidence | (19) St. Mirren 1-5 Celtic | Celtic Thrash St. Mirren To Stay Nine Points Clear | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 1:21 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Dunne pulls down Kyogo
Initial on field decision: Red card shown to Dunne. Penalty initially awarded and then changed to a free kick following VAR review.
Kyogo closes down the St Mirren defender who initially looks favourite to shepherd ball back to his keeper. But then Dunne under hits the back pass, panics and leans straight to Kyogo and drags him to the fall in the process. Given this is the clear denial of a goal scoring opportunity and that he makes no attempt to challenge for the ball, the red card is the correct sanction, irrespective of whether the challenge happens inside or outside the box. VAR intervenes and provides the referee with clarify that the offence did take place just outside the 18-yard box and so the free kick is awarded
Verdict: Correct to award the free kick and send off Dunne for a DOGSO |
Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
Incident 3
Referee | David Dickinson |
Game Minute | 61st |
Score At Time | 1-1 |
Incident | Johnston scores for Celtic |
Outcome | Goal to Celtic |
Evidence | (19) St. Mirren 1-5 Celtic | Celtic Thrash St. Mirren To Stay Nine Points Clear | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 2:28 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Johnston scores for Celtic
Initial on field decision: Goal awarded to Celtic
Johnston gets on end of a Mooy free kick and heads home from close range. There is the question of does Johnston impede the St Mirren player whilst competing for the ball. There is some contact from Johnston’s arms but I do not see a clear push or infringement. It is a case of Johnston’s desire to win the ball is greater than that of his marker, who does not seem that interested in jumping or challenging for the ball.
Verdict: Correct decision to award the goal. |
Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
Incident 4
Referee | David Dickinson |
Game Minute | 61st |
Score At Time | 1-4 |
Incident | Oh goes down in the box |
Outcome | Penalty to Celtic upon VAR review |
Evidence | (19) St. Mirren 1-5 Celtic | Celtic Thrash St. Mirren To Stay Nine Points Clear | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 4:40 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Oh goes down in the box
Initial on field decision: Penalty awarded to Celtic after Var review
Oh falls down a little theatrically under the challenge of the St Mirren player and the referee believes he is trying to buy a penalty by suggesting his legs have been taken. However, it is actually a clear shirt pull by the St Mirren on player which prevents Oh from getting to the ball and this is where VAR really shows its benefits. The referee is looking at lower contact and ball and so is unsighted for the upper body shirt pull. Once reviewed it is an easy decision for the referee to correctly award the penalty kick.
Verdict: Correct decision to award the penalty for the infringement. |
Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
08/03/23 Celtic vs Hearts
Incident 1
Referee | Alan Muir |
Game Minute | 6th |
Score At Time | 0-0 |
Incident | Ginnelly scores for Hearts |
Outcome | Goal awarded after VAR review for offside |
Evidence | (19) Celtic 3-1 Hearts | Kyogo Furuhashi Scores and Assists in Home Victory | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 0:00 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Ginnelly scores for Hearts
Initial on field decision: Offside given, overturned to goal to Hearts after Var review
Ball is played across from Hearts left flank, Ginnelly attempts to time his run and gets on end of ball to score. Flag goes up for a potential offside from the assistant referee and VAR decide the player was level and goal is ultimately awarded.
This is an incredibly marginal call either way as the closet defender to Ginnelly looks virtually level. I have been sent a still image of the point of contact from the other Hearts player that might make it appear that Ginnelly’s right knee hairs are 1mm offside, but when I watched and paused the footage independently, my gut feeling was Ginnelly was just level at the point of impact.
I would give the benefit of the doubt to the attacker on balance and so say the correct decision was made to award the goal.
Verdict; Correct decision |
Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
Incident 2
Referee | Alan Muir |
Game Minute | 29th |
Score At Time | 0-1 |
Incident | Bernabei fouls Atkinson |
Outcome | Foul to Hearts and no further action following VAR review |
Evidence | (19) Celtic 3-1 Hearts | Kyogo Furuhashi Scores and Assists in Home Victory | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 2:05 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Bernabei fouls Atkinson
Initial on field decision: Foul to Hearts. VAR check for a potential red card offence, not given after review.
Bernabei with an outstretched left foot does appear to catch the Hearts player and studs to catch the opponent’s outer right ankle.
As the studs are showing, I suspect this is why a VAR review takes place. However, for this tackle to be considered a red card for serious foul play, then the VAR team need to feel confident the referee has missed a tackle that endangers player safety or uses excessive force/brutality. For me, Bernabei is almost in a standing position before then extending his leg to challenge for the ball. Therefore, he has no real momentum behind the leg extension and so there is no excessive force/brutality behind his tackle.
Slightly high? Yes. Red card offence? No.
Verdict: Correct decision not to upgrade the challenge to a sending off offence. |
Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
The Rangers incredible fortune despite / because of (?) VAR continues with two further calls going their way whilst unfortunate wrong calls remain a stranger.
In terms of impact on the expected points picture:
Based on the in-match game state when the decisions were made (or not made), The Rangers have 3.43 MORE expected points due to the cumulative impact of Honest Mistakes and Celtic 4.12 LESS.
A swing of 7.65 xPts.
Celtic lead by nine points and 27 goals after 28 matches.
Damian says
No surprises here. Some of these just seemed wrong.
On the Omeonga red, a +0.86 advantage to Rangers seems a bit much given that they were 1-0 up at 77 minutes, against a team they are infinitely better than, by any measure?
Also, given that the YW accepts that a foul was committed, and that the player was already on a yellow, would he (the YW) not need to watch the whole match to make an accurate judgement on that? I.e., could the second yellow have been given as a result of multiple fouls?
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
The method for xPts on red cards is clearly explained in the linked article. It is a model therefore not perfect. It is the average number of points a team loses when at home and a man sent off. It is applied to all with no regard to match time or game state. I accept this is a limitation, but it is equally true for all sendings off – some you win some you lose. I would argue in this case given the home side were only 1 goal down at the time is it not the most egregious example.
If anyone has the skills to mathematically model an xPts impact model for sendings off given the averages of 0.86 xPts per home team ejection and 0.35 per away team, factoring in game state and game minute, then i would greatly welcome that – crowd sourcing challenge!
Damian says
Sorry, yes, I understand. I wasn’t meaning to imply it was being made up or anything. I’ve read the model you use before. It just strikes me as an unlikely reflection of the advantage gained in that particular case. Not egregious by any means but it would strike me as incredibly likely that Rangers will beat a team they dwarf financially from the point of being 1-0 up at 77 minutes.
It does seem a flaw in the model (admittedly, an unavoidable one) in terms of presenting the running totals of the expected points gaps as evidence. That this incident gave nearly a point of an advantage to a team that hasn’t lost a match since before the World Cup seems a stretch.
It was a foul (according to the YW) and he was on a yellow. You run the risk, especially if he’d committed several other low-end fouls (which I don’t know, because I didn’t watch the whole game and neither has the YW).
But, always fascinating to read what the YW makes of the circus. The two incorrect decisions here are about the first since about the World Cup break?
Martin says
Damian you make some good points. With regards the xP though, if it’s applied the same to everyone then it shouldn’t make a huge difference to the outcome table, as 1 xP is unlikely to swing things much, but several red cards in one team’s favour is.
I actually thought the 2nd yellow was pretty reasonable for this one. The first seemed very harsh, though I didn’t watch the full game so maybe that was his 4th or 5th foul in quick succession. My gut feeling is he can feel hard done by for yellow 1 but you make your own problems fouling at an attack when already on a card.
Martin says
Damian you make some good points. With regards the xP though, if it’s applied the same to everyone then it shouldn’t make a huge difference to the outcome table, as 1 xP is unlikely to swing things much, but several red cards in one team’s favour is.
I actually thought the 2nd yellow was pretty reasonable for this one. The first seemed very harsh, though I didn’t watch the full game so maybe that was his 4th or 5th foul in quick succession. My gut feeling is he can feel hard done by for yellow 1 but you make your own problems fouling at an attack when already on a card.
Plastic Paddy says
I am always a bit late to the party on things like this but found this a fascinating read just the same. Paranoia doesn’t come into it. Bending the rules or the interpretation of the rules is what is going on with the corrupt officials. It’s so bloody obvious.