This edition covers two SPFL fixture cards. On 1st February Celtic took on Livingston whilst The Rangers travelled to Tynecastle.
4th and 5th February saw The Rangers entertain Ross County whilst Celtic took their tractor to Perth.
The impact of a call being incorrect can be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL.
01/02/23 Hearts vs The Rangers
Incident 1
Referee | John Beaton |
Game Minute | 51st |
Score At Time | 0-2 |
Incident | Kent goes down in the box |
Outcome | Penalty to TRFC overturned by VAR to foul to Hearts and YC for Kent |
Evidence | (2) Hearts 0-3 Rangers | Brilliant Morelos Brace! | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 2:37 |
Incident 2
Referee | John Beaton |
Game Minute | 90th |
Score At Time | 0-3 |
Incident | Ball hits Goldson in the box |
Outcome | No decision |
Evidence | (2) Hearts 0-3 Rangers | Brilliant Morelos Brace! | cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 5:00 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Ball hits Goldson in the penalty area.
Initial on field decision: No foul committed. Hearts player chips ball across box, Goldson unchallenged runs at ball and possibly misjudges the spin of the ball and it kicks up whilst he’s mid run. Yes, his right arm is raised slightly, but both angles would suggest the ball bounces up and hits him in the chest rather than arm and I’m happy with the non-foul decision here.
Verdict: Correct decision. |
Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
05/02/23 St Johnstone vs Celtic
Incident 1
Referee | David Dickinson |
Game Minute | 13th |
Score At Time | 0-0 |
Incident | Considine scores an own goal |
Outcome | Goal to Celtic |
Evidence | (2) St. Johnstone 1-4 Celtic | Unbeatable Celtic With Strong Away Display |cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 0:01 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Considine scores an own goal
Initial on field decision: Goal awarded to Celtic. Celtic spring the offside trap down right-hand side before ball is crossed and Considine unfortunately turns ball into his own net. There is a question about the Kyogo being off side in the build up here. As discussed in previous weeks’ reviews, we know players stood in an offside position when the ball is played are not committing an offence unless they are deemed to be ‘active’. In this incident Kyogo does not interfere with Considine as he is not impacting or preventing the defender from playing the ball, nor is there any obvious action carried out by Kyogo that impacts on Considine ability to play the ball. It’s just a good old fashioned misjudged attempt to clear the danger.
Verdict: Correct decision |
Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
Incident 2
Referee | David Dickinson |
Game Minute | 90th |
Score At Time | 1-3 |
Incident | Considine brings down Oh |
Outcome | Free kick to Celtic and RC to Considine |
Evidence | (2) St. Johnstone 1-4 Celtic | Unbeatable Celtic With Strong Away Display |cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 4:28 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Considine brings down Oh
Initial on field decision: Free kick awarded to Celtic and Considine is sent off for a DOGSO offence (denying an obvious goal scoring opportunity).
The Celtic forward spins and deceives Considine, who then wraps both arms around his waist and drags him to the floor. This is a clear foul and the referee decided this met the criteria of a DOGSO challenge. Given that the Celtic player would have been central, unchallenged and clean through on goal, I believe this was also a DOGSO challenge.
Verdict: Correct decision. |
Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
Incident 3
Referee | David Dickinson |
Game Minute | 90th |
Score At Time | 1-3 |
Incident | Turnbull scores for Celtic |
Outcome | Goal to Celtic |
Evidence | (2) St. Johnstone 1-4 Celtic | Unbeatable Celtic With Strong Away Display |cinch Premiership – YouTube
At 4:45 |
Yorkshire Whistler Verdict | Turnbull scores from a free kick
Initial on field decision: Goal awarded to Celtic
A free kick is a rolled a short distance to Turnbull who hits a low first shot through a wall of players and finds the bottom corner. There appears to a question mark over a possible offside from a Celtic player in the sea of bodies that could have impacted on the sight & ability of the goalkeeper to save the effort. However, a quick review of the video replay shows as the initial shot is struck, the Celtic player in the box is just onside.
Verdict: Correct decision |
Expected Points
Outcome |
No impact |
Summary
My thanks as always to the Yorkshire Whistler.
One is left to ponder the reaction had Jota been booked for a dive in the penalty area amongst the faithful reporters of Scottish football?
In terms of impact on the expected points picture, all square in love and war.
Based on the in-match game state when the decisions were made (or not made), The Rangers have 2.41 MORE expected points due to the cumulative impact of Honest Mistakes and Celtic 4.12 LESS.
A swing of 6.53 xPts.
Celtic lead by nine points and 25 goals after 25 matches.
Damian says
Interesting piece as always. It seems the refs are generally making the right calls recently according to the YW?
I was listening to the live Radio Scotland coverage of the Hearts Rangers game. Certainly the in-studio pundits had the Kent dive down as such from the first second.
Damian says
Interesting to see what the xPts impact would be since the introduction of VAR? That’s 11 or 12 rounds of fixtures? Obviously I have some misgivings in this area and there are at least a couple of Celtic games I can think of since the introduction of VAR where I personally think there were instances (potentially in favour of Celtic’s opponents on the day) which were not referred to the YW. But, such as it is, and just from reading these reports as they come in, the YW assessment would seem to be that VAR is working pretty well, or at least making a positive impact on the standards of referees decisions, in the Scottish top flight? Might be more interesting still if you were to look at, say, the period before and since the World Cup – allowing the former to be seen as a teething period (and where most of the absolute clangers appear to have been concentrated)?
Damian says
I eventually got interested enough to look back through your reports from the ‘Dawn of VAR’ onwards. I’m not sure that all rounds of fixtures have been referred to and/or fed back on by the YW, so that plus any particular instances not referred in the games covered might make the running totals a bit pinch-of-salt. But, such as it is, it’s:
CFC -2.67
RFC +1.33
…in that time.
As I suspected, the overwhelming majority of this happened prior to the World Cup (if it’s acceptable to consider the pre-WC VAR period as having teething problems). Only two (I think) instances which made any impact after that time. I’ve discounted the League Cup quarter finals article, where both
CFC and RFC apparently benefited from poor decisions.
Since the WC, the YW appears to be of the view that the instances referred to him have been handled well by the officials.
Martin says
Only 3 comments! Suggests we all agree with the YW here. I certainly do- I’m not sure any of the incidents referred were particularly controversial, but then that’s good. We don’t want to exist in a bubble of publication bias- we need to see where the refs are right as well.
Like Damian, I do feel that since the WC break most big calls have either been right OR fixed in VAR. The Partick Thistle vs Rangers cup game being the only outlier in that I’ve seen, where I feel both penalties were wrong (handball was of the “soft/unfortunate” variety, Tillman foul was clearly outside the box).
And, crucially, that’s a good thing. We want a fair game where quality decides things, not officialdom.
The Cha says
Re Celtic’s first goal, I assume he means Hatate standing in an offside position rather than The Kyogo 🙂
The latter was, of course, fed by Mooy and who’s cross, meant for Hatate, was diverted into the net by Considine.
If I’m reading it correctly then YW is saying that if Hatate had scored then it should have been ruled out for offside.
I’m probably confusing myself but I thought this was why players stood in an offside but inactive position as, as long as they’re onside when the ball is played to them ie active, then the goal would stand.