A disappointing result, not to mention performance, is what lingers in the minds of Celtic supporters over the winter shut down. The old saying “you are only as good as your last result” is nevertheless a harsh lens through which to appraise Lennon’s performance over the season to date. Let’s attempt a more rounded assessment as I embark on the first mid term report of the season.
Results
This site is primarily about performances rather than results. Football is a low scoring game and “luck” or other factors play a disproportionate role compared to many other sports. Performance data is a better predictor of future outcome than one or two results.
That being said, the KPIs the Celtic board will ultimately use to judge him will be simple.
And on that basis Lennon should be proud.
Comparing the Treble years (how spoilt have we become?):
Lennon has breezed past 84% Points% in all matches, significantly higher than any Rodgers season.
Rodgers had Champion’s League Group Stages deflating his numbers plus an exceptional Europa League group containing both RB Leipzig and Salzburg. Lennon could equally point to Rennes and Lazio being “top 5 league” and both sitting 3rd in their respective competitions currently.
Goals scored per game is up considerably, and goals against up modestly and nowhere near Rodger’s over 1 per game in the first two seasons.
The key optics all look good for Lennon. Celtic won their (difficult) Europa League group at a canter, retained the League Cup and are top of the SPFL. 100 goals scored is another significant landmark. By the most basic stats in football – results, competition progress and goals – Lennon is on fire.
Style
He most noticeable stylistic difference is in passes completed.
Lennon is now getting less sideways passing and as a result the Hoops are completing 70 less passes per 90m than last season.
With pass completion now 85%, down from 88%, less accurately too as Celtic seek to get the ball forward more quickly.
This has been successful in that Celtic’s overall Total Impect (scores extent to which forward passes take opponents out the game) is 347 this season compared to only 276 last. Celtic are vertically more effective. However, they are not taking any more defenders out the game – this is the same at 18 per 90m.
There is a resulting uptick in possession in the box (up to 26.9 from 24.5 per 90m). And, slightly more shots – up from 16.56 to 17.76.
The corollary is that Celtic seem a bit easier to play against. Opposition Total Impect is up 146 to 193. Celtic defenders Packed per game is up from 10 to 12.
Celtic are only completing 6.6 Passes Per Defensive Action (PPDA) compared to 7.75 under Rodgers. And the opposition are being allowed 4.01 PPDA compared to 3.37. It should be noted Celtic are allowing less shots – down 10.98 to 7.39.
xG has improved markedly too – now 2.39 per 90m compared to 2.18 last season. xG against is also up – 0.855 to 0.949.
Celtic matches are more entertaining – better chances and more goals overall. There is evidence Celtic are less effective at pressing under Lennon, however.
But overall the stylistic changes appear to be effective.
Substance
And yet.
When Celtic are good under Lennon, they are great – despatching capable European opposition easily; the magnificent wins over Lazio; setting down what should have been a season defining and irrecoverable marker at Ibrox.
But on the few occasions Celtic are bad, they are awful. The Cluj defeat was a catalogue of manager and team errors. The Livingston debacle an abject spectacle with the manager seemingly incapable of stemming the flow (albeit with 10 men). The League Cup Final was a triumphant result but an execrable performance. And the recent home Derby defeat was not the one-sided walloping the partial press will have you believe, but was nevertheless a tactical aberration.
High pressing and direct football have seen Lennon struggle to adjust. Additionally, strange decisions like playing McGregor at left back; an unfit Elyounoussi pared with an out of position Hayes in the Cup Final; Morgan at centre forward; playing Johnston vs The Rangers when Celtic had settled into a midfield bolstering formation with Ntcham; the failure to learn from the Hampden experience and cede the midfield; his championing of Hayes and Morgan in particular, and Bitton as cover at centre back when other better squad options exist smacks of favouritism and stubbornness.
All have played a part in bad defeats amongst the glittering overall record to this point and cast some doubt.
What is absolute however, is the right Lennon now has to reshape the squad in his own image. That work begins in January.
Season 1, Term 2
Celtic’s domestic hegemony is an overnight success 26 years in the making. The foundational activity initiated by the McCann regime, and carried on through to the current incumbents has provided a structural advantage over the rest of Scottish football that is vice like. Recruitment and development yield a steady stream of high value transfer income. Whilst occasional Champions League football ensures a turnover that dwarves domestic rivals. A couple of really bad seasons results wise could easily be absorbed.
The major challenge for Lennon is once again a financially reckless opponent who puts the collection of silverware over the safe longevity of their club as evidenced by repeated “going concern” warnings. Meanwhile the rest of Scottish football cuts its cloth and experiences the seasonal loss of talent. Managerial excellence (Clarke, McInnes) occasionally facilitates the raising of standards above the sum of the individual parts. But normalcy is a cycle of develop, lose players, replace with cheap/free and hope to get 1 or 2 years out of young prospects before the vultures from England circle. Celtic’s reward for a strategic outlook has been to make that advantage count over the last 8-10 years in particular.
To be fair to Gerrard, enhanced with backroom talent, a variously assorted collection of players within the largest squad in Scotland, has been drilled into an effective unit. Not for Lennon nor Gerrard to worry about aspects of good governance and financial fair play, they must fight with the tools they have.
As many players have found, it will be in Derby games where ultimately Lennon’s season will be judged.
Conclusion
Lennon’s competition progress, results and style of play are virtually faultless. Where there have been setbacks, however, they have been significant and exacerbated by manager error. His major challenge for the rest of the season is a revitalised rival who has significant wherewithal on the park.
Could Lennon’s legacy really boil down to two Derbies?
To answer the last question…Yes. lennon has done a sterling job. But the improvement at Rangers is significant . Gerrard started to build something glast season when they were clearly better than in previous seasons, despite not winning a trophy. That improvement has continued. Hence Lennon is up against the best Rangers team since their formation. First of the teams to drop points in the New Year will then have it all to do.
Celtic have better players in every position on the park.
Unfortunately they have a manager who is tactically aware, command respect, can adapt and learn.
We do not have a manager like that.
The best team did not win last week – the best manager won.
“Better” is a moot point. Potentially more skillful and young enough to develop further yes. The best players turn up on the day so for the last two games against the main rivals they have had the “better” players. Granted our players were stifled by poor tactics and bad team selection for the task. The most glaring error was to have 4 attacking wide men with two wingers and two wing backs. This left the midfield bereft. Forrest and Johnston are not inside forwards so to ask then to “tuck-in” to allow wing back the freedom of the wings is asking for trouble. If Brown and Mcgregor then have to cover for the wing backs you are not getting great and strong support from those two wingers. It’s therefore plain to see that we did not select the right team to play this brand of football. and it played right into their hands. If you play wing backs then you have to play the likes of Ntcham and Rogic. If you play twp out and out wingers then you have covering full backs like Bauer and Taylor.
If we end the season with significantly more points than last season and finish second then that’s a failure.
I know that’s not the focus of the article but it reminds me of athletes who never post the best times but come the major championships they usually win, which is the crucial part.
BTW There will probably be 3 crucial derbies in the rest of the season and I’m not talking about the upcoming Cup game against the Harry Wraggs!
4 points in the league games is probably required, which we’re well capable of achieving but equally there can’t be sub-stantard performances.
I’ve done a pretty exhaustive attribution analysis comparing our squad and Rangers vs each other and vs the league average for each player and position group. This is a sort of “bottoms up” complement to your “top down” team level approach here. The result is crystal clear- Celtic’s midfield performance is down under Lennon and Rangers is up significantly this season due to player upgrades and a leap forward in Jack’s performance levels.
Every Celtic midfielder has a worse combined xG+xA from open play per 90 this season vs last. I think the 4-2-3-1 shape is I’ll suited for all our midfielders except Rogic, who has barely played. McGregor in particular has seen his level drop from .414 last season to .33 this. Every single midfielder’s xPassing score is also down season over season.
Lastly, the team gets basically nothing offensively out of Brown and his defensive metrics are in significant decline except for interceptions. His offensive contribution is about that of the average SPFL defensive midfielder AFTER I exclude all Celtic and Rangers players. Such football luminaries as Allan Campbell and Sam Foley have better offensive numbers this season.
Despite this obvious underperformance, Brown has been played 3,125 minutes, which is dramatically more than any other midfielderin Europe above age 30. In contrast Davis has played 2146 for Rangers, while producing xA+xG of .18 vs .07 for Brown. Luka Modric, just 18 months off Ballon d’Or and Golden Ball is being rotated at Madrid and played 1041 minutes. And before anyone extols about Brown being good in the recent Derby, he lost almost 60% of his duels (including all 6 combined vs Kamara and Kent) and did not complete a single forward pass in the right offensive quadrant of the pitch.
This gross mismanagement of our midfield, along with a viable 2nd striker, and being better on set pieces, are the clear and obvious issues.
Thanks James
Are these numbers for the SPFL only? (other than mins in Europe)
Hello Alan- all offensive #’s are SPFL and via Modernfitba Patreon, which I highly recommend for 2.50 a month. The derby-specific data is from Wyscout and they have a basic sub for 100 a year and free trial.
Ok thanks. It takes me enough time to collect all my own data to be forking out for others!
By the way I hope you comment more often.
I will get around to the midfield as part of the mid term report series but am working my way out from the back, more in Rodgers style admittedly! 😐
Excellent work Alan. An enjoyable read that translates what we see over a season on the park into undisputed statistical reality – and often is a disturbing eye opener! Keep up the good work. Should you wish access to the sites mentioned by James Dailey above then I’m sure it wouldn’t be beyond the means of like minded Celtic family to fund these for you. What do other readers say?
Thanks very much John. It really is a matter of time in terms of processing yet more data – I barely have enough time to make sense of what I collect myself! Them there is the question of reconciling it 🙂
Why did Neil Lennon change his tactics from August performance against Sevco @ Ibrox?
In December 2019 we have played Sevco twice the first match in December 2019 the
League Cup Final we played our get out of Jail card via Fraser Foster the writing was on
the Board that the way Neil set up his stall on the said two key match/fixtures is doomed
for failure against them (Sevco) Gerrard & Co have done their home work on Us we need
to approach these matches differently that is what said matter boils down to