Continuing to play around with radars and this time let’s look at Kyogo Furuhashi. Last season 34 goals in all competitions and this season 15 with hopefully 10 games left. The main metric used to evaluate Kyogo as we all know, however, is the expected smile prevalence (xSP). Less than sunny has been the average … [continue reading]
Big Unit, Ball Master, or Both?
I wrote extensively on Liam Scales in the Celtic Way last week. They have an incredible offer of only £1 a month for six months. The other writers are really strong, so I recommend it. It is always a challenge to come up with a compelling view that might tell a story that accurately reflects … [continue reading]
Joe Hart
There are Celtic “fan” sites that lure you in with clickbait and sensationalist headlines, and there are those that simply regurgitate what others have produced, either the mainstream media or less forgivably, other Celtic fan sites. I hope you realise I am never the latter and on a certain cheeky level, only occasionally the former. … [continue reading]
Honest Mistakes – Week 29.5
A quick one to cover the last fixture before the international break as Celtic hosted St Johnstone whilst The Rangers forgot their trunks when visiting tropical Dundee. The impact of big calls being incorrect can then be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL. A framework for assessing red card … [continue reading]
Changing Your Luck
Celtic scored 147 goals in winning a treble last season, in all competitions. 2.77 per game. This season was always going to be some kind of transition from Ange Postecoglou to Brendan Rodgers and we do not have to rehash the recruitment story. Those goals came from shots rated with an overall xG of 139. … [continue reading]
Scales, Welsh, CCV and Aerial Dominance
14We debated on the most recent Huddle Breakdown (please subscribe) regarding centre-backs and aerial duels and how helpful or not the available data is. This was prompted by the performances of Liam Scales and Stephen Welsh in the Scottish Cup match versus Livingston. The opponents, as is typical in Scotland, had the proverbial “big lad” … [continue reading]
Honest Mistakes – There’s Been An Intervention!
Two weeks of fixtures for the high price you pay to access all the data on this site – insert a sarky emoji here. This takes us up to the Scottish Cup matches and both sides have played 29 SPFL matches. The impact of big calls being incorrect can then be evaluated using the framework … [continue reading]
Honest Mistakes – Week 27
Week twenty-seven of the fixtures in the SPFL with no let-up in the array of questionable decisions. The impact of big calls being incorrect can then be evaluated using the framework outlined here -> Honest Mistakes in the SPFL. 24/02/24 The Rangers vs Hearts Incident 1 Referee Nick Walsh Game Minute 48th Score At Time … [continue reading]
Injury Update
Injuries are all part of the realities of managing a football club. I rely on the club through official pressers and site write-ups for injury information. Clubs are not always open and transparent about such things. So, health warning regarding injury data! This season has not been particularly onerous thus far. Celtic, on average, are … [continue reading]
Red Card Impact
The review of the big calls affecting the top two in the SPFL by the Yorkshire Whistler throws up a 20 percent error rate currently. I then model the impact of that based on the expected points outcomes. Current Models As regards goals from open play given, not given, the model used is taken from … [continue reading]