I still maintain the biggest issue Celtic have faced this season is not finishing off their chances. There are undoubtedly many concerns for Postecoglou to address: A settled defence First choice left back Curing the hamstring epidemic How to operate a midfield with no natural “8”s The never-ending striker shortage Lack of aerial presence in … [continue reading]
Scoring Contribution
The Johnston Conundrum
A quick piece on Michael Johnston given the furore following the St Mirren game. According to FotMob he led the team with 0.46 xG and 0.26 xA giving an Expected Scoring Contribution (xSC) of 0.72. This is slightly below his average of 0.8. And, of course, this yielded 1 assist and 0 goals – leaving … [continue reading]
The Sharp End
Scoring Contribution gets to the heart of footballing productivity. It combines goals and assists, or in this case Expected Goals and Assists – the speed boat you could have won! xNPG is Expected Non-Penalty Goals. Why? Because the chances of scoring a penalty are the same irrespective of the taker. It is a separate measurable … [continue reading]
The Larsson Benchmark
We all know Larsson was a world class talent and the greatest forward Celtic has seen since Dalglish. But how can we show this using statistic? Advanced in game data is only available relatively recently, but using simple goals and assists (i.e. attacking productivity) allied to minutes played we get overall scoring contribution rates. The … [continue reading]
Comparing Strikers Since Strachan
Celtic have a history of great strikers. How does the current crop compare to recent incumbents? Data on goals and assists is available from 2005, the start of the Strachan era. This is a useful starting place as it marks the beginning of a more prudent transfer policy post O’Neill and record fees. Data is … [continue reading]
Scoring Contribution – November 2018
Over the last day I’ve shown you actual goals and assists charts as well as Expected Goals and Assists. Goals and Assists together gives you Scoring Contribution. How are the squad performing versus expected values? In the SPFL Celtic are, despite the recent goal rush, behind where they should be on Expected Goals. Having scored … [continue reading]
Can Celtic Over Perform Again?
The always excellent @TheGersReport wrote on the equally innovative Modern Fitba site (a great addition to the Scottish football online landscape) about which team can expect to see an increase or decrease in scoring this season. The article is here. The basic principle is that over time a players’ goals and assists totals should revert … [continue reading]