Plotting Expected Goals and Expected Assists for midfielders and forwards gives us a view on not just goal threat but creativity too.
The chart below is xG and xA per 90m in all competitions for Celtic. Only includes players with > 450 minutes.
For me, the main take-aways are:
- Reinforces how vital Edouard is. With the lack of adequate cover for him, Celtic are highly exposed as the League Cup Final showed.
- Elyounoussi has been a miss. Hopefully he is back after the break as his all-round play has been an energising plus so far.
- All numbers (including Christie) include xA from Open Play only. Christie’s numbers would be way higher if set play passes were included.
- The 1st choice front four is clear from this diagram.
- People need to catch Forrest a break.
- Griffiths has regressed to “greedy” mode in the few minutes he has had.
- Johnston’s numbers are a disappointment after a promising start to the season. This further highlight the lack of depth in quality but not quantity currently on the wings.
- Hayes numbers are to be tempered by his defensive role in many games.
- Brown, McGregor and Ntcham are where I think they should be by these numbers. Pack passes and secondary assists would be a different view and better show their worth.
But Edouard needs cover!
Duncan says
Give Griffiths proper game time he’s all the cover we need.
Édouard is not a true No9 he’d be better placed as a Support striker in a pairing with Griffiths.
He’s no clinical enough and he fails to make the right movements into the box when delivery is coming in from wide.
He may well develop into a genuine No9 in time but I think that will transpire elsewhere when he’s sold.
He’s been off the boil all Season and the sooner we get Griffiths fully match fit the better.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
That’s an overly bleak assessment of Edouard imho. I’ve not yet compared his numbers season on season but suspect he is improving across the board. On Griffiths I fear we are seeing less and less of the best of him and more of the worst = call it the Stokes Effect
The Cha says
Agree.
Edouard has a deserved high reputation across Europe, which only comes to those from lessser leagues, through high performances and not any big league hype.
Similar nonsense was said about Dembele but luckily the then manager had no doubt who his top striker was.
With regard to Griffiths, he was back in full training in April and had a full pre-season this year.
He’s been back since his latest injury for 6 weeks and 11 games. He originally was getting 10-20 mins per game and this is down to 5-10mins.
Clearly the manager does not trust him to play a more active part and its best for all parties to call a halt to this failed return, as its a distraction from our need to provide a quality reliable backup to Edouard.
Duncan says
I’d be more inclined to call it the Rodgers effect.
He managed to turned a 40 goals in a Season Striker into a basket case in 2 years.
He did so by relegating him behind his own signings.
Neither of which hit 40 in a Season incidentally.
The Cha says
If you’re seriously suggesting that Griffiths deserves a place ahead of Edouard or deserved a place ahead of Dembele then thankfully you’re in a tiny minority that doesn’t contain either the current or the previous manager.
Your “basket case” comment is shameful.
Other than himself and close confidants, no-one knows the full reasons for Griffiths Mental Health issues, which are likely to be deep and complex.
If not being 1st choice striker plays any part in that, then that is incredibly sad but the team can only be selected based on football criteria and, I doubt, it would be helpful to anyone to play a clearly inferior player.
It should also be noted that Griffiths has spoken often and movingly about the support he’s received from the club, especially from Rodgers, including after the latter had left, when there would have been no risk in criticising Rodgers.
James says
Every midfielders combined xA + xG per 90 from open play is down vs last season. McGregor is way down. 4-2-3-1 doesn’t suit our players, IMO. Christie, McGregor and Ntcham all posted better numbers as attacking 8’s last season. I just checked Brown’s dual and dual% won data per 90 for games in Europe the last 5 seasons and he is in clear and significant decline. Duals are down over 30% and amount of duals lost is up by almost half. Not a single Champions League team played a defensive midfielder Brown’s age a single minute this season. In fact, Champions League teams pretty much stopped playing defensive midfielders his age over 10 years ago. Brown has played more than double the minutes of any defensive midfielder over 30 in either CL or EL. Our total offensive output in midfield from open play is about 20% below Rangers’. Our players are playing in a system that doesn’t suit them and our manager has “built the team” around a 34 year old midfielder in a grossly negligent way.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Thanks – a lot of food for thought there. I’ll double check the comparisons. I would be surprised given how Rodgers reign petered out and how results are so much more impressive this season.
Chris says
Would be interesting to see how his stats compare with Dembele
JOHN BURNS says
Agree with your excellent analysis.
Would just say that McGregor, Christie, Forrest, Johnston, & Ntcham, all require time and space to perform. ‘Rangers’ deny them this. When denied they become ‘easy pickings’ for the pack of Jack, Kamara, Davies, Aribo, Kent (Arfield).
We had width with Frimpong and Bolingoli, why then did we also field two wingers, leaving us outnumbered in midfield?
Also something I’m sure you could help with – apart from the ‘Rangers’ pack hunting in midfield, Eddy was surrounded by four, two centre-backs & two from the ‘pack’ every time he received the ball. This packing and tackling pulls players temporarily out of position, why can’t we use the space and freedom this leaves?
We should, after Hampden, have been fighting fire with fire in midfield.
Next time would like to see a diamond – Ajer at the base, Brown to the right, McGregor to the left & Christie at the top.
Frimpong, Elhamed, Jullien Taylor at the back.
Elyounoussi & Eddy up front.
4-4-1-1 or 4-4-2
The permutations would be numerous.
E.G. Ajer drops back, full backs higher to make a 3-5-1
Ajer drops back, take off Frimpong for Forrest and go 4-3-3
We were weak & paralysed.
Finally something very simple – why no on the posts at corners? They cleared two off the like, we let one in…..frustrated.
Sorry to be so long-winded, we played into their hands, not once, but twice.
Jim says
Tall Eddies strength is holding up the ball he also needs back-up & players
to play off of he certainly knows where the Goal Frame is & how to put
the ball in the Net he is not a prolific goal scorer however he is certainly
a very useful addition to our Team keep banging them in Eddie go-on-the-
Bhoys.