Ange Postecoglou is the new manager of Tottenham Hotspur. This ends a two-year reign at Celtic that culminated in a record eighth domestic treble, and five Scottish trophies won out of six.
More than the largely positive footballing outcomes, Postecoglou has united the team and the support through a consistent brand of high energy attacking football that resonated with much of the Celtic Park faithful.
Yes, you must win at Celtic, but if you win with flair and playing attacking, inventive football you win hearts as well as minds.
Postecoglou, unlike many storied coaches, concentrated his efforts to make Celtic an attacking monster especially in Scotland. Pushing midfielders into attacking positions, inverting full backs to strengthen the grip in midfield, and focussing attackers on getting into high probability scoring positions culminated in a dominant season of 114 league goals and one loss in a meaningful tie. Another 29 goals were scored in nine successful cup ties.
That 0-2 league reverse at St Mirren stands alone in the season. And even then, six changes saw a centre back combination of Stephen Welsh and Moritz Jenz, in front of a pedestrian midfield of Aaron Mooy and David Turnbull with Anthony Ralston at right back was some way from the optimal line up. Add in the obligatory “honest mistake” for the second goal, and it was fine margins whether there could have been another invincible treble to defend come seasons end.
What was remarkable about Celtic under Postecoglou was the sheer consistency of attacking performances his sides were able to manage. Once renowned for struggling against low blocks, and with Livingston and St Mirren perhaps cracking the code with 5-3-2 formations that flooded the defensive areas but caused issues on the counterattack, rival strategies were dealt with in time.
Football is an unpredictable game and the low scoring nature of it always provides a chance of an upset. Postecoglou came as close as anyone in my lifetime to effectively beat the system. In Scotland at least, his sides sustained a high level of expected goals and attacking intensity such that opponents were exhausted just keeping the score down.
He managed a seemingly perfect blend of possession control and attacking aggressiveness. Over time the counter press became so effective, opponents could barely get out their own half.
All manner of defensive alignments from high lines to low blocks in any shape you wish were summarily dismissed.
The five-substitute rule further tilted the field in favour of this style of football. Press as hard as you can forward guys because on 60 minutes onwards, we can change five of you for similar quality and barely drop the overall intensity.
Subs were rewarded with a dividend of great data for minimal minutes. For some, like Giorgos Giakoumakis, this was not enough, but Oh Hyeon-gyu gorged on his limited minutes as a direct replacement.
It was as if he’d mastered the game up here, domestically.
Europe was very different, and a failure to get past Shakhtar Donetsk despite dominating two games mean no European football post New Year. Celtic were mildly acclaimed for attacking intent but ultimately had no answer to the athleticism, attacking quality of RB Leipzig and Real Madrid. Also, Postecoglou’s aggressive press did not scale to this level of football when his team had 40% possession as opposed to 70%.
Emotion and Commotion
Let me first lay out that whilst I have had a while to come to terms with this situation given the chatter I’d heard from the middle of last week, I cannot get overly angry about this outcome.
Postecoglou has been very consistent in his messaging. Football changes quickly and that works in both directions. It also works for players and managers.
He clearly loved Celtic and has been grateful for the opportunity to land a mark in Europe.
He is also a hugely ambitious man nearing his 60s.
He has the opportunity, as @jucojames spelt out on the Huddle Breakdown, to bring inter-generational wealth to his family. Family is everything to him, and the chance to achieve financial security for his grandchildren and beyond resonates with a man who arrived as a child in a foreign land at five years old with his family having to give up a previously settled life.
He has had to dance on an uncomfortable pin the last week or so. He could not say “I’m staying” and equally until it is signed anything can happen.
It is just the nature of these things. Any ending will be unsatisfactory for those being left behind.
A Low Blow
His loss is undoubtedly a blow for Celtic.
Sourcing a new manager is disruptive in terms of time, effort and resources.
What will be the impact on the existing, remaining football operations staff?
Will the new man want to gut the backroom or work with whomever is left?
Which players may feel wedded to the fate of Postecoglou and now be unsettled?
What merry dance will the club be led in pursuing targets? The scars of the Eddie Howe fandango linger.
Are the targets that had always been considered even available?
As I outlined above, it is difficult to envisage any other coach dominating opponents to such an extent as Postecoglou’s side have this season, and indeed most of last. One meaningful league defeat from 20th September 2021 to 7th May 2023.
This is a team where the power of the system trumps individuality. The strength is in the collective organisation. Individuals are virtually interchangeable providing they respond to the triggers and cues, and fill the spaces expected.
It is hard to coach this and the Australian perfected it over the last 18 months.
That well oiled machine is now lacking its architect, its designer, the one person with the vision in his head of how all the pieces fit together.
Players have been recruited to fit into highly specific roles. How successfully can they adapt to new patterns and systems?
A large contingent has been recruited from Asian markets, and whilst everyone will have their own ambitions and life situations, how will the recruits from far away lands feel losing the man who knew they would be alright joining him in Glasgow? In general footballers are stoic and are used to the capriciousness of the sport, but there is a significant community of Japanese players who need to be kept onside.
It is all very unsettling but true organisational health and competency reveals itself when stressed. The spotlight turns to Celtic’s senior leaders to navigate the way forward.
That does not fill me with confidence.
The mindset that went from Roy Keane to Eddie Howe to Ange Postecoglou when last Celtic were in this situation does not scream “coherence, strategy, joined up thinking”. For me, this is the biggest risk in all of this. The nagging feeling somehow Celtic got lucky in stumbling upon Postecoglou rather than plotting a style of play, and management. Has Celtic’s weak core organisational structures and values been masked by the Aussie’s brilliance?
Anecdotally, Postecoglou wielded enormous power in terms of football operations. Has the organisation matured and developed under him – crucially modernised – or is there now a huge vacuum?
They say is it better to have loved and lost than never loved at all.
I would not swap out the last two seasons of attacking football and success. It has been relentless and enormously enjoyable.
I’m not sure we’ll see the like again, domestically.
Opportunities
All that being said, any change brings about the opportunity to grow and develop.
Domestic performances until the title was won were as near to perfection as football can be in my experience.
However, since the League Cup Final win, it has felt like the team are running on empty and stumbling a little to get over the line. Expected goals fell from 2.8 to 2.2 and injuries have seemed to be on the increase.
I have been struggling to think of the last 90-minute performance of consistency. Yes, the wins continued to be racked up but in the Derbies in particular, the players seemed to be doing “just enough”. It was thrilling for 27 minutes at Kilmarnock. A beach ready Aberdeen was dispatched on trophy day. The league was secured at Tynecastle but aided by a sending off. Maybe 4-0 at home to Aberdeen on 18th February?
After nearly two years of incessant “Angeball”, and relying on a relatively small core of players to achieve it, are double training sessions and practising at match pace sustainable?
As mentioned, injuries have started to creep up after a lull at the start of the season. The players look tired and Postecoglou himself has said the lads are running on empty.
How many times can you hear the same messages and respond to the same motivations once you’ve achieved the treble?
Like Marcelo Bielsa whose footballing philosophies Postecoglou’s style resembles, eventually everyone just gets exhausted.
And we must talk about Europe. Conceding 15 goals in the Europa League Group stages, more than any other side, then falling heavily to FK Bodø/Glimt could arguably be put down to shaping a team and prioritising the league and Champions League entry.
That Champions League campaign was ultimately unsuccessful with a bottom place group finish and no progression and no wins.
There were glimpses of attacking cohesion and for sure more salaried opponents were worried. But again, the defensive side of “Angeball” did not seem to scale.
I am settled on the view you cannot press with the same intensity off of 40% possession as you do domestically against inferior technical players when you have 70% possession. It is simply not physically feasible. Add in a failure to craft a midfield lacking pace and athleticism, and Celtic struggled to compete in the key areas of the pitch.
And the pressure on the defence that resulted saw eight goals lost to Real Madrid and five to RB Leipzig. Celtic averaged 2.23 xG against per game. At this level, once a team gets over 2 xG you can expect 5, 6, 7, 8 goal hammerings.
Postecoglou showed little inclination to directly address this other than to do Plan A better. Celtic have improved in their rest defence shape whereby the inverted full backs and the centre backs at least protect the centre of the pitch on transition.
But is it enough to move the dial in Europe and at least get a run deep into the Europa League? I remain sceptical that this thrilling form of domestic football scales to that level.
Because ultimately, it comes down to the players and the level they are at. It was, again, @jucojames that planted the seed in my head about the squad – are these players as good as we think they are?
Postecoglou has given high store to recruiting the man first and the player second. We have a dressing room of lovely young men. Who would not be proud to call Matt O’Riley, Jota, Kyogo Furuhasi your son?
But in football, you need nasty bastards as well. It takes all types to make a team and to achieve a balance of creative tension that keeps standards high.
Many of our players shine because the system is so strong. Relatively mediocre players like Carl Starfelt and Greg Taylor are competent and better domestically in this system where all know their jobs. It is admirable and makes sense in terms of the cost of squad building. Daizen Maeda is a monster of endeavour and counter pressing intent, but his technical limitations will always restrict his attacking potency at the highest level. These are examples. I could go through the whole squad from the stylistically compromised and gradually declining but excellent leadership of Joe Hart, to the incredible specificity of the role the star striker Kyogo has and whether changing his role would blunt his effectiveness.
But again, it only scales so far, and in the European arena those limitations are cruelly exposed.
I do wonder if we have recruited for character and cultural fit over raw quality of player. A good manager navigates that and forges a team from within.
Reasons to be Cheerful
It is now obviously a safe space for me to articulate the nagging doubts above that I have harboured as the season unfolded.
More positively, we need to keep cheering Ange on! Because his success is OUR success. Brendan Rodgers took Leicester City to 5th, 5th 8th in the Premier League, an FA Cup, a Community Shield win over Manchester City and a European semi-final.
If Ange is similarly successful, managing and winning at Celtic is seen as a credible step up to that higher level. Therefore, we will continue to attract ambitious and talented candidates. (Just don’t fall in love with them!).
And as regards timing, this is the best time for a manager to leave. We have the full Summer to regroup. The Pre Season Cup, Linked With Trophy and Bragging Rights Shields were always going to be beyond us as they are every Summer.
But seriously, we have Champions League football to offer. By far the biggest football budget in the country, an advantage which repeats year after year after year so long as we buy season books.
The squad is stacked with sellable assets on reasonable contracts.
There is a massive challenge for Michael Nicholson to unload perhaps up to ten players who appear to have no future in the club. And if anything, we need to accelerate the rate of squad churn to grow revenues and gradually upskill quality.
But this is a million miles away from the Neil Lennon / Peter Lawwell 2020/21 bin fire. A new manager knows he has a high mark to hit and the tools and resources available to make an immediate impact.
My biggest concern is our own board and their approach to managerial recruitment.
What should happen is Nicholson and Mark Lawwell with his big book of City Group knowledge should define a set of criteria and scour the world for talent that fits the football operation objectives.
What I fear is that Dermot Desmond and his UK and Ireland rolodex of limited pages will instead inform selection.
We might get lucky again, like we did with Postecoglou. We might not.
How do you feel?
I’m a bit sad its over but happy it happened.
The club is in great shape to overcome the challenges of incompetent and arguably corrupt governance, backwater league finances and delinquent near rivals.
The fans and the players are bonded, and the love is strong.
It is over to the custodians now, and we wait with trepidation to see whether we are getting the modern football club we deserve.
Andrew gallacher says
Just another guy who used us as a stepping stone just like rodgers look what happened to him he’ll win nothing at spurs a who different league from what he’s used and Kane might move my worry is he comes in for kayogo he jumped at the first club in Scotland one team to beat in England at least 6 good riddance any decent manager could have done what he did here apart from Kyogo
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Rodger is arguably Leicester Citys most successful manager of all time
If Ange is similarly successful at Spurs (on a relative basis) it reflects well on Celtic
As for players, i’ll be surprised if any are considered good enough to improve the Spurs 1st xI
peter care says
Except he gave you five trophies in his two years at the club, Besides who amongst us wouldn’t accept a promotion to a bigger organisation on 5 times your salary?
Steve Kelly says
Would hardly say Rodgers was most successful moat at LC… he won two trophies aye, FA and a CS, but Rainier won them the Premiership and even our very own beloved Martin O’Neil won them promotion and 2 league cups not to mention runner up in the nineties.
I have to agree with Andrew…. he has used us as a stepping stone to the bright lights and money, his ambition always was I feel. All that chest pumping quoting Tommy Burns etc. very disappointed how quickly his vison changes, even for a club as Spurs.
Will be interesting to see who stays at Spurs also, as they definitely don’t have Ange style players…. So will he come back to pluck players he recruited… Jota.. Rio… Kyogo etc
Interesting times ahead Hail Hail.
Damian says
In that case, can we make sure we have similarly excellent managers willing to use us as a stepping stone for two trophy laden seasons?
Every time, please.
If it could happen under the umbrella of a coherent, modern football operation, that would be better still.
David says
Thanks Alan
Gordon says
I agree that if he goes on and does well at Spurs it can only reflect well on Celtic.
To suggest Ange was the same as Brendan is does not sit well with me. Brendan left us at a crucial time of the season to take a job at a historically mediocre club. Ange waited until the season was done. The guy is 58 and has the opportunity to take on a huge job at the highest profile league in the world. Spurs have had a poor season and the opportunity for improvement there is absolutely massive. I bear absolutely no malice towards Ange and wish him well. (I still wish he’d stayed)
I’m hoping that we go down the route of trying to bring in someone who has a similar footballing philosophy and is able to build on what Ange has done, rather than rip it up and start again.
Hail Hail
Damian says
A nice piece. Excellently detail as always (though I happen to know the referee of the St Mirren defeat is a Celtic fan; admittedly one that was once a St Mirren youth player, so there might be that).
I don’t have it in me to be angry at Ange. A great coach and a brilliant way to sign off. I can’t think of any better departures.
Tom says
Interesting and agreeable piece. What do you think of the feeling that Ange used Celtic as a stepping stone (which I disagree with), and the concurrent feeling from fans that Celtic is too big to be used as such? Ange has never spent long in one job bar the Australia job, and fans have always wanted him to stay. Was it naive for fans to think Ange’s ambitiousness would end with the Celtic job?
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
He was always going to leave. If Celtic is seen as a stepping stone for bigger things it will always be an attractive proposition.
Getting used to 2-3 year cycles is a double edged sword. Yes it is disruptive and makes careful stead squad curating difficult, on the other hand Celtic need to increase player churn to increase revenues from sales and, given Celtic’s financial dominance, if a player or coach wins a double or treble, do motivation levels increase?
Stesano says
He is just like all Aussies in that he is an ” eppplll mhate” sychophant you need to live there or have lived in Australia to know it so weird that they craze validation relevance from the world especially England and America, Most know nothing off football but all know ” epllll” God they only ones that really use that term anyway they see this as glam as they do the f&&king ” monorchy” which was a shock to me big time that really was., They see his success as theirs! Mental but that’s Australia!I want to now forget the Aussie as I always knew he jump at first chance , people slag Brendan but he was/ is a top mananger and proved that before him came it way better than the ” Aussie bllllokkke” and if we can get him back it be a massive upgrade!! Bring him back if possible! Tho I do hate we lose players and managers to clubs not nearly as big ! Living in Australia I saw first hand the love and sense of community we have for our club and none these ” epl” clubs come close ” some tourists ” fans yes but Celtic a club like no other even my exs family were Spanish she was first gen Aussies much same as the fat man, and they liked Real now there loads of Spanish migrants there from 60s onward same as Italians and Greeks ‘ wogs” they call themselves! Mental eh Anyway I would go to the ” Spanish club for games and was like morgue she was take aback when I took her to watch Celtic games in cheers bar on George Street ” night and day” she say point is no club like Celtic I met one genuine spurs fan over there one!! In 10 years! Biggest issue we all know is we need out of ” Brigadoon ” Scotland!Which is ironic as if we were Mr ” Aussie would never in a million years get the chance to manage our Great Club! Bring back Brendan!
Robert Laurie says
If the next guy wins 5 of 6, bring it on! Long may the ‘Generation of Domination’ continue !…( but; Europe? he asks from behind the couch… )
Robert
George barr says
Agree 100%
Our newbies bottled it on the big stage, in the box, the gamble to be ahead inside 60 minutes after sprinting after everything just didn’t work, kobyashi and bernabie were bad buys for me, so I’m happy to be glass half full about moving onwards and upwards
A new manager can replace maeda Taylor hart and whoever leaves with some johnstone level signings and we move on
Doug says
Excellent article, thanks. We’re all sad it’s over, but to everyone talking in terms of us being ‘used’, you need to have another look. That’s football – players and managers always have one eye on the future. Always! Ange gave us two fantastic years and now he’s reaping the personal rewards. Can anyone really blame him for that? As to ‘should have been more honest with us’ – would you want to give the SMSM any further ammunition for their attempts to destabilise us in the lead-up to the cup final? Surely not. Ange said the only sensible things he could in the circumstances. His fist-pumping was real, not a put-on; he really does get us, get the club, get the circumstances. Enjoy what he brought us, thank him and wish him well for his future. Our future certainly looks a lot better for him having been here. Look forward to the Champions League.
Martin says
Agreed, Doug. And to be honest I want them with an eye on moving onwards and upwards. They know they need to impress to get the move so it benefits the club (players and managers alike).
I also don’t know what else he could have said in the run up and I think someone let him down with a leak. He probably wanted to get to the treble without incident then leave on good terms. But once the rumours are out the questions are asked.
I don’t blame him for leaving and have no anger, even if he takes coachea and buys players. That’s football. What we need is to hit the ground running with a new manager whilat restructuring in the background to render future departures less disruptive.
People are talking about bringing Rodgers back… I’m ok with it but as a rule. I prefer no manager returns as it rarely works out. And if we were going to the lazy options I’d actually prefer Deila, with his greater experience now, as long as John Collins wasn’t brought in again to temper him (I have consistently said that when Collins arrived everything changed. The early games under Deila were exciting and dynamic. JC brought a different attitude and hampered the player fitness/development).
But really I want someone new. Knutsen would be a great choice for continuity- Angeball but with a bit of bite. I doubt we’ll get him, or will even ask.
Damian says
But how are Knutsen’s abs?
Martin says
You sir have just won the internet. Excellent.
Damian says
I try, man. I try.
Martin says
Good article as always, Alan. I had been kntereated to see what his 2nd crack at CL would look like. Not to be. It’s definitely an arena where we have been poor for years. I think 2 or 3 year is probably what we will get from managers now. They’re ambitious and want to work with good budgets for good money. We can’t compete with the “best (paid) league in the world.”
As a club we ahould decide what we want as a strategy, set up with a Director of Football (but a good one) and identify a constant shortlist of managers who fit the mould. Then any change is minimal.
And as fans we need to stop expecting employees to be there as long as we are. They wont.
Damian says
An excellent episode of the HB, as always, Alan. I actually listened twice. I know that sounds (and is a bit) sad, but I’ve a lengthy daily commute and this episode had a very particular, state of the nation kind of feel to it.
I just wanted to clarify a couple of threads from the beginning and end of the hour.
First, I personally cannot think of a single better candidate than Kevin Muscat. It just makes far too much sense to be ignored.
For me, there is no way on earth Rodgers takes the job. I agree with your analysis of him above. He’s an excellent coach with a brilliant record and he will likely stroll into just about any EPL vacancy that comes up. He does not need a Celtic parachute and I suspect his severance is more than we could pay him.
At the end of the show you also mentioned the Muscat idea. It is the most coherent appointment for a very carefully assembled squad for a very particular style. If it’s Muscat, the transfer business that’s lined up can very likely just go ahead etc.
But, at the start you also hypothesised that Angeball may have taken its toll on the team. The evidence of the last few weeks (maybe months) would back that up.
If that’s the case, is a pure continuity candidate necessarily the way to go?
I ask because I suspect that James and yourself would have got onto that had you had another ten minutes. In fact, I think James proposed that just as things were wrapping up.
To my mind, we’ve just lost an excellent manager who’s left in a classy manner at the peak of success. Had he remained, we’d have been hoping for more of the same. Muscat is the best option (I’m aware of) for more of the same.
Are your misgiving about more of the same strong enough to think we should go in a different direction?
My fear with that is that we might as well offload a lot of (even key) players if the system is at all different. And doing that strikes me as putting next season’s league campaign (and European progress, if there were to be any) in more jeopardy.
Rangers got 92 points this season. That usually wins the league no bother. If they are as good next season, or any better, it wouldn’t take much for us to slip.
Damian says
Sorry, that was rambling. Let me try to be concise.
Your thoughts on the following threads:
1. Muscat as a very strong continuity candidate, which is what you’d think a successful squad would need.
Vs
2. The look of lethargy in the squad perhaps suggesting that total continuity might not be the order of the day.
Damian says
I suppose it could be Muscat’s fear that the OldCo might request their ‘loan’ back if he took the Celtic manager’s job? That might be why no one’s talking about it seriously.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
OldCo are sat on a desk in Canary Wharf. In any case they indemnified their EBT recipients. If what you said was true then Billy Dodds, to name but one, would be twitching.
Damian says
Fair comment. I didn’t think there had been a winding up order yet, so maybe KM feared being placed on the hit list.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Continuity in terms of proven ability to take a “Postecoglou” assembled squad and keep winning. The methodology need not be identical.
Damian says
Fair enough. So far as I’m concerned, the work on this should have been continuous. CEO and Head of Recruitment should be playing a ‘manager leaves tomorrow’ scenario war game every other week.
Damian says
Alan, was just wanting to ask you this before the appointment is made, if indeed it is confirmed (I’m still kind of in the believe-it-when-I-see-it camp; don’t understand why he’d want to come back).
Do you not share any fears about the reappointment?
I know he’s very good but Rangers were pretty abject when he was last here. Now, by any measure, they’re not.
Rodgers was really well backed in his first and second seasons last time round. In the second, not one significant player was sold, Ntcham was added, Roberts was re-recruited, at great expense, at Rodgers’ insistence. We ended up with 83 points. Rangers got 83 last season, 92 this season.
I take your logic about prioritising the league at all costs next season. But I don’t feel that Rodgers is anywhere near as much of a gimme for that as he’s been made out to be. I suppose I’m trying to articulate that I reckon this ends badly.
I heard someone on ACSOM say he “guarantees you the league”. Much as you didn’t say that, at all, it strikes me that there are much bigger risks than anyone is making out.
I’m also worried that Desmond taking the lead on this makes us look a joke. We have a Head of Recruitment, why is his not the most important say on the matter?
Having listened to you guys carefully over the last couple of years, you’ve made clear that the Ange style is very different from the Rodgers style. As a season ticket holder, this matches my eye test. It strikes me that if it’s Rodgers, we need to overhaul the squad: Maeda, no use; Kyogo, nothing like the kind of striker Rodgers prefers etc. etc.
Anyway, you reckon he’s the safest bet?
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Damian – i’ve probably not made myself clear. I hate repeating myself but learned in this game you have to constantly. An internal conflict i am working on 🙂
I have plenty of reservations but the biggest is the lack of maturity of the modern Celtic football operations. Meaning a punt like Maresca would likely flounder. Hence Rodgers, excellent football coach, being the safest bet of those on the the bookies list. As i keep saying – OTHER MANAGERS ARE AVAILABLE.
No guarantees but i hear that many assurances are having to be given by Desmond. It seems Rodgers wants to drive Celtic forward in the way we would all wish. Lets se the gap between flannel and reality.
Rodgers football was heavily possession based and less vertically aggressive than Postecoglous. But we are not talking the difference between Warnock and Guardiola here. Subtle differences. Not a major issue re squad capability.
Damian says
Thanks. Not sure I articulated my own misgivings very well either.
The improvement in Rangers, I suppose, could be applied to anyone we recruit.
I suppose the main thing I’m probably hiding there is something like, I just don’t like him.
I can only hope you can take me at my word when I say, that’s not because of 2019. I’m in the shit happens camp when it comes to football manager comings and goings. Indeed, football managers SHOULD, in most cases, come and go.
I didn’t like him as a character when he was last in charge and I don’t much like the idea of him being back in charge.
I suppose that’s making my mind wander to: this won’t go well.
So I’m probably clutching at numbers that serve my hunch.
He makes sense in a lot of ways. And I appreciate the nuance of what you’ve said: had we a proper football operation well underway, a Maresca type punt might be great. But (as, for me, is evidenced by Desmond lording it about), we blatantly do not.
I guess they have my season ticket cash anyway, so fingers crossed I’m way off.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Healthy scepticism is my default
Damian says
Cheers. Thanks for taking the time.