Since the winter break Bain has replaced Gordon as the Celtic Number One. This despite Gordon making 6 saves at Ibrox, a season high for a Celtic ‘keeper.
I described in Life in the Old Gord Yet how Gordon was performing fine as a shot stopper. He was saving the shots he should. In the last two seasons he would be expected to concede 70.879 goals and has conceded 69. It isn’t that he has made a series of howlers to concede soft goals.
So, what’s up with Gordon?
Rodger’s was reported as having said:
“The profile of keeper means that he has to be able to work with his feet. That’s our game. We aren’t 10 players and a goalkeeper when we have the ball. We are 11 players. Scott keeps the game moving for us and can stop goals as well”
I showed in the aforementioned article that Gordon’s distribution was in line with much vaunted sweeper-keeper Allison of Liverpool. For balance, I have also shown his distribution has regressed since he adapted his passing game under Rodgers.
Is Bain significantly better?
In the core competency of keeping the ball out of the net, Bain has conceded only 5 goals in the 1440 minutes he has played over the last two seasons. He was expected to concede 9.043 so is exceeding expectations albeit over a smaller sample and against weaker opposition (Bain has not played any European matches).
Bain does make slightly less saves per game (2.03 to 1.94) but we’d expect that as he faces less shots (opponent strength again).
Back to Rodger’s point: is Bain’s passing the deal breaker?
Gordon averages more passes per 90m (25.84) than Bain (23.5). This is probably another impact of playing stronger opposition (Gordon has more possession). However, whilst Gordon has 6.72 incomplete passes per 90m, Bain has only 4.06. And overall, Bain’s passing accuracy over the last two seasons is significantly better:
That 7% gap is over two seasons. This season Gordon pass completion is 78% whilst Bain’s is a whopping 92% commensurate with a no-risk passing central defender. A 14% difference.
Bain has not given the ball away from an open play pass or set play pass in four completed matches. He last gave the ball away from a pass sometime on 2nd December on the League Cup Final against Aberdeen. Admittedly Dundee, Airdireonians, St Mirren and Hamilton Academical have not put much pressure on him. But the eye test shows he physically moves the ball more quickly than the less mobile and mannered Gordon.
It really does come down to pass marks. Neither keeper is guilty of making too many errors and both are conceding under expected goals.
A Celtic goalkeeper will make an average of 1.9 saves a match but attempt around 30 passes. If the manager has two ‘keepers that are similarly competent in keeping the ball out the net, he’ll go with the better passer as this constitutes a far larger part of the modern goalie’s game.
For now, that is Bain.
Iain in Alberta says
Without doubt Bain is a better passer of the ball. I would suggest that Bain is quicker and more aggressive off his line to deal with cross balls and through balls taking the pressure of the defence.
Thanks for all the hard work you do putting this site together.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
thank you. I agree Bain physically moves faster.
Steve Ross says
Yes I would agree Bain is quicker at getting the ball out & into play once he has possession than Gordon. Without a shadow of a doubt he is also a better passer of the ball than Gordon – there’s literally not a game goes by that Gordon doesn’t give the ball away.
I Still mantain GOrdon is the better shot stopper so we’ll see how it goes between now & end of season
Duncan says
I think this basically comes down to what the Managers demands are of the keeper in a side that does not want to concede possession by simply lumping it long up the Park.
Gordon has spent a career doing exactly this he is an old school type keeper who has been asked to retrain to accommodate an entirely different approach to Keeping?
He’s no sweeper keeper Craig Gordon he a very good shot stopper however and a commanding figure in the box.
His distribution from his feet has been woefully bad for the most part and I think he’s not very comfortable when receiving a back pass whilst pressure is being applied by the opposition.
Bain has a more complete game.
He is comfortable receiving and distributing it with either hands or feet and his accuracy is way much better with the latter.
He can operate comfortably as a sweeper when required and in my opinion much more decisive when coming off his line.
The defence seem much more at ease as well with him in behind because they know they can pass it back under pressure without any drama.
Bain has to keep the No1 jersey now I think because up to this point he’s not done anything to jeopardise his position in there.
The clean sheets and improved defensive displays plus Brendan’s comments would seem to Back this up.
Gordon is at an age we were needing to find a replacement.
In my opinion he’s already here.
Role reversal I think Craig should now be getting the Cup games and again the rest.
Great analysis as per usual Alan ??
Mick says
Would be interested to see how Bain’s performing aside from his clean sheet record. 15 in 18 is excellent, but how good a shot stopper is he? Is his superior distribution a contributing factor in that he gives the ball to opposing players less and therefore faces less efforts than Gordon?