Under Rodgers, Celtic’s pressing effectiveness deteriorated season by season. With more emphasis on possession, or perhaps cumulative fatigue allied to the sheer number of games, it was less evident by season three.
Lennon has reinvigorated Celtic’s press.
Attacking Threat
The starkest evidence is Passes Attempted Per Tackle (PAPT). Last season, Celtic’s opponents attempted 13.24 passes per Celtic tackle. This season that has almost halved to 7.71. Celtic are getting a challenge in more frequently despite the fact that the opposition overall are attempting more passes (319 to 301) and are having more possession (37% to 32%).
The opposition are having less shots (7.08 compared to 7.7 last season) and less touches in Celtic’s box (8.85 to 9.6). They are also creating less chances (5.54 to 6) with fewer passes into the Danger Zone.
Celtic are forcing the opposition to hand over possession 12.08 times per 90m in their own defensive third, Last season this was 9.71.
All this suggests Celtic’s more aggressive defence is limiting the opposition to a greater degree. All this despite the new personnel and the lack of a settled back line.
Pressing Dangers
We get a slightly different picture of we consider the quality of the chances created and the shots taken, however.
xG is up from 0.845 to 0.945 but the opposition have had three penalties. xNPG (Non Penalty Goals) is down from 0.748 to 0.709. However, xA is up from 0.711 to 0.802. The opposition are creating better chances but not necessarily scoring more goals.
The chart above shows that both chance quality and shot quality have increased from last season.
The opposition, therefore, are creating fewer chances but better ones.
A warning for Celtic, but also an indicator that defensive pressure may be improving, is that whereas last season the opposition converted 40% of all shots on target, and 13% of all shots taken, this season it is only 24% of shots on target (very low) and 8% of all shots (average = 11%).
So, Celtic may be about to suffer a correction to the mean.
Summary
Celtic are easier to play through this season – a reoccurring danger of a high press. Packing by the opposition is up by 4 pack events per game.
Big Chances for the opposition are up from 0.52 to 0.92 per game.
I would hope that the only way is up for Celtic. The new players are bedding in. Lennon’s vision and methods will be taking shape in training. More matches are to come against SPFL opposition rather than the tricky and different problems posed in Europe.
It is early but Celtic are limiting teams to a greater degree. As with his Hibernian side, however, once the press is breached, chances tend to be of higher quality.
As I mentioned previously, buckle up!
One of the reasons I wasn’t optimistic about Ibrox was the defensive performance away at AIK. It looked like the two wingers were overly narrow, allowing for long diagonals to be played to a ‘spare’ man on the touchline. There also wasn’t much pressure on the passer either from the opposite flank. When reacting to this we were leaving all sorts of gaps in the final 3rd.
The pressure on the passer was much better at Ibrox but to this observer there is still too much fragility in our defensive approach. The hope is once players are more settled, cohesion will improve. Perhaps the late recruits and coaching time over the international period will also help.
I believe as we progress the new defence will improve. As you say Lennons’ vision and methods will take shape as the season goes on. Also Fraser Forster will improve our goals against column. Just his presence between the sticks causes opposition jitters. I expect less opposition goals (spfl) and chances created as the season progresses.
Great stuff. I just can’t get enough! Strapped in for a bumpy but accelerated ride.