Scoring Contribution gets to the heart of footballing productivity. It combines goals and assists, or in this case Expected Goals and Assists – the speed boat you could have won!
- xNPG is Expected Non-Penalty Goals. Why? Because the chances of scoring a penalty are the same irrespective of the taker. It is a separate measurable skill from scoring in open play.
- xA is Expected Assists. This is the quality of the chance provided whether the shooter scores or not.
All values are averages per 90m.
Edouard leads the way with 0.542 xNPG per 90m as one would hope from a £9m investment.
Christie is the xA king with 0.445 per 90m.
Arguably the most effective all-rounder is Burke. Yes, it tailed off badly for him and has ended with a war of words between Celtic and parent club West Bromich Albion. But let’s not revise history to the extent that his basic productivity numbers were impressive. Just not £15m worth of impressive.
Griffiths played few minutes and managed a mere 1 assist and 6 goals. Yet you can see how missed he is, especially his set play delivery in addition to the obvious goal threat.
The best Scoring Contributors (Christie, Griffiths and Burke) all played sparsely during the campaign.
I’ve covered how Sinclair sharpened his goal threat but spent much less time creating, and Johnston is already close to his numbers.
Both Rogic and Ntcham had xNPG numbers close to the prolific Forrest which highlights how fortune plays a part in football. Reverse those trends (i.e. more of Rogic and Ntchams’ shots go it and less of Forrests) and you have very different perceptions of their seasons.
McGregor has a little niche of his own between the defenders and the attackers, a neat visual illustration of his natural playing position now.
Of the defenders, Tierney and Lustig carry the greater creative threat, and Simunovic sneaks ahead as a goal threat (well, relatively!).
Main take aways are that Edouard has taken on the main striking role with aplomb. And that Celtic must get in form attacking talent fit for the majority of the season.
If they do, they might even win a trophy or two!
Think you will find Griffiths will be wearing the No9 and rightly so Alan.
If he bags 25 goals this Season moves him up to the top15 Strikers at Celtic of all time.
He’s been out for 7 months and has hit the ground running in pre Season.
He’s already making the runs and taking his chances.
Edouard isn’t cut out for leading the line he will be better served deployed as a Supporting Striker in a pairing and if Lenny goes down that road I think we will get more out of both.
Lenny is also talking of bringing in a 4th Striker so this again points to ditching the one Striker setup we have seen more or less for 5 Seasons.
We need variation in attack for Europe teams have worked us out in Scotland.
So long as it doesn’t mean being overrun in midfield with only 2 in there as was the case the last 2 friendlies.
It will be an amazing story if Griffiths comes back as strong. here’s hoping.
3-5-2 resolves that issue Alan.
And Celtic have the players to play 3-5-2 effectively?
………………………………………BAIN
…………SIMUNOVIC …JULLIEN ………..AJER
FORREST MCGREGOR BROWN CHRISTIE TIERNEY
…………………………………………………EDOUARD
……………………….GRIFFITHS
That’s going off who is currently available obviously there could be changes regards Tierney Rogic and Ntcham.
Hence why two of those are nowhere near this setup.
I think the potential signing of Israeli defender Hatem Abd Elhamed could be the key to 3-5-2 given he can operate comfortably at RB and CB.
By dropping Biton into the defence and pushing Mbombo up last night Lennon created a back 3.
Proving yet again just how tactically astute he is in Europe.
Yes it was interesting. 4 without the ball and 3 with. I’ll explore other tactical nuances when I’ve watched it back. Ultimately that game was more about attacking effectiveness than defensive
Have a close look at Mbombo’s movements when we attacked up the left as he seemed to be under orders to cut inside allowing Johnston more space out wide.
Traditionally the Wingback would be the one overlapping and the winger inverted as we seen with Tierney/Sinclair previously.