When Postecoglou was first appointed my main concern was that the “playing football to please my dad” schtick was code for the type of football Tommy Burns’ Celtic played that would ultimately crash against an expensive rock of defensive anti-football.
Prior to Celtic’s Derby defeat, I wrote the same in the Celtic Way and expressed the view I’d seen enough tactical nuance to waylay my concerns.
All this as a precursor to declaring that such was the extent of variance introduced by Postecoglou’s tactical stylings, it was impossible for me to call the game.
How wrong I was.
Coin Flip
A very well respected and talented Ibrox facing writer provided a game summary that concluded The Rangers were comfortable, 2nd gear, and it was an easy win preying on familiar Celtic failings.
We all carry our biases and as “Celtic” by Numbers I wear mine on my sleeve. But that was a little one-eyed even for me!
In reality this was an incredibly even match up as the basic game stats show:
Celtic dominated possession (63%) and had the great line breaking effectiveness (Packing score).
Despite The Rangers having many more shots (14 to 8), Celtic had the slightly higher xG and more possession in the opposition box.
There was very little in it overall.
Chance Comparison
The Rangers had 5 of 14 efforts inside the box. Of those 2 were headers (usually much lower xG), and 2 wide in the box. Only Morelos’ early volley over the bar was from a central position and a shot.
The Ibrox side had good game control from half time until scoring but only Goldson’s header over from a corner to show in terms of reasonable chances. Hart had to field three saves from long range or low power efforts but was otherwise untroubled.
The best save of the match was by McCrorie when Furuhashi was through on 68m. The young ‘keeper sprinted out quickly to block what was a good chance. He saved again from the same player on 85m and his equally fast reactions led to another dangerous moment being wasted by the same player on 87m.
Earlier, Edouard has missed the best chance of the match, heeling the ball wide from close range om 25m.
Celtic created by far the better chances, and The Rangers volume but most were poor probability chances. Average xG / shot was 0.13 – 0.07.
Familiar Failings #1?
It’s an easy (lazy?) narrative to say Celtic were undone with familiar failings. There is no doubt Celtic struggled to defend set plays last season without Jullien whom is aerially dominant. Even when he played the general lack of structure and organisation was evident. (Last season Celtic conceded 10 goals from corner situations off xG of 6.26).
This was the first goal conceded from a corner this term, and only the 12th chance resulting from an opposition corner.
Total xG from those 12 chances is 0.91 so Celtic are roughly “par” for corner chances conceded.
Either Ralston or more likely Welsh lost Helander and a good delivery was well met. It will be accentuated as it was a Derby.
Familiar Failings #2?
The slightly deflating aspect of the defeat wasn’t so much that Celtic lost (so much negative variance), or that the goal came from a corner, but that Celtic largely failed to upset the very well-rehearsed rhythm for the home side.
Even last season when Celtic were an organisational, abject mess, the Derby games were close. Granted, the initial 0-2 reverse was largely COVID and injury impacted for Celtic, and the 1-4 hammering was on a well beaten team most of whom are not even at the club once the season had long gone.
The competitive matches when they still mattered, were remarkably close.
This despite The Rangers being a very well organised side, comfortable in their shape and system, with easily replaceable parts in each position. “Soft investment” has allowed the purchase of a huge squad with virtually three players for each position. The long anticipated COVID variance to befall the camp forced the loss of captain Tavernier and 39-year-old McGregor in goal.
Huge credit to McCrorie who made the big saves in goal, and to Balogun who was not asked to replicate Tavernier’s attacking style. Rarely venturing over half way, he contained the left side of the Celtic attack very well and was their Man of the Match.
The rest of the team was as strong as it could be (arguments over Jack / Davis perhaps).
This is a team built for European competition. Comfortable defending in a very compact 4-3-3 shape, with the forward 3 playing narrow but relied upon to provide the threat. This places a lot of ground to cover by the middle three. Aribo and Kamara in particular are exceptional defensively, covering the space as much as winning the ball back to maintain that disciplined shape.
Remember, a very dominant version of this team had a xG of only 68 in the SPFL last season, massively outperformed (91 scored). They are not a “defensive” side as per the paradigms of the 1980’s but defensive solidity is their primary focus.
That Celtic’s supposedly helter-skelter “Angeball” made little impact on disrupting it was perhaps the main disappointment, therefore.
Variance
The extensive reworking of the squad has seen 12 in and 12 out over the summer. And the squad is nowhere near balanced, as I described in Managing Risk on the Postecoglou Rollercoaster (have a read, it’s reet good).
Juranovic became the latest new face to be pitched into a big game with nether a “how ye doing”. And at left back, a position very unfamiliar to him.
Edouard and Christie played despite knowing they were leaving in a matter of days. They are human and that must have an impact. The relative lack of contribution from both certainly suggests that – Edouard completed 7 passes, missed his big chance and created 0 assisting passes.
The bench was thin and many of the new signing continue to bed in. Starfelt (more on him separately) is struggling to adapt currently. Abada faded as he has done against the better teams.
All excuses really.
The reality is that the squad needs to strengthen, to gel with manager expectation, and grow into this season. As I (and many others) have said all along – Patience!
Summary
At Ibrox, retaining a huge squad and gambling on winning direct CL entry has been prioritised over other fiscal responsibilities. That in itself will produce some potentially uncomfortable variance for Celtic.
We cannot know how the latest batch of recruits (Scales, Jota, Juranovic, Giakoumakis, Carter-Vickers, McCarthy) will ultimately perform. There will have to be more comings and goings in January. It is a huge level of change to digest and organise.
There is a very well drilled and organised opponent to overcome with only a partial rebuild in play. The ghosts of Walter Smith (Wattenaccio), and of failing to overcome an equally pragmatic opponent last season, continue to haunt.
The ‘never got out of second gear’ narrative pushed by your blue nosed colleague – a lot of English writers were peddling something similar during the Euros when they were getting solid yet unspectacular results.
Isn’t it just a bit of an easy angle to take in the circumstances? Aye we only won 1 nil but we meant it
I must admit to being a little more sanguine than yourself in relation to Celtic’s future trajectory- this team will only continue to improve under Ange- and remember: we have Kyogo. Two teams are evenly matched. But the Huns don’t have no Kyogo.
There seems to be a narrative emerging concening Abada struggling against better opposition: he ran riot against AZ at Paradise- ran Hearts ragged twice- and set up THAT CHANCE for Edouard when he put through Kyogo with a sublime pass at the Devils den. Sure he wasn’t great against the Forces of Darkness overall or against AZ away, but then who was? Turnbull and Chrisite again were a no-show against the Sevconians. I don’t think we can underestimate the malevolent power and intense hate generated by the hun hoardes at Vulture City- especially with no Celtic fans to counter the relentless darkness. For the likes of Abada and Turnbull it must be like the footballing equivalent of being trampled under herds of wild goat hoofs. Although I thought in general Kyogo did well against the harassment from the hordes of hell. A few games through the middle against them and he will put them to the sword with his pace and movement.
Soro seems another one who is developing a narrative around him that more or less goes ‘he gives the ball away too much’- he is often coming in from the cold straight into games to shut them down and sometimes does try and be over-ambitious with his passing- maybe he’s trying too hard? He did put Kyogo through for his chance in the 2nd half with a beautiful slide rule pass. Soro should have played against them instead of Christie and went up against Kamara. Rogic should have been on for Turnbull at half time and Kyogo should have been put through the middle at half time. Ange was too timid, failed to be proactive and we showed them too much respect- maybe Ange was impacted by the diabolical atmosphere at the bigot fortress- who would blame him? He should have made the changes earlier.
I don’t think there was a lot between the teams last season either- the 4-1 game was an outlier caused by MacGregor being sent off at the first goal. But I don’t think there has been a decent end to end hammer and tongs game since Gerrard came to Ibrox. They’ve mainly all been a bit stale. Most of the games have reminded me of the Wattanacio second-coming games against them when Strachan and Sir Myth cancelled each other out most of the time.
As for losing set pieces you might argue its inevitable we’ll lose the occasional goal against them from set-peices considering they have Helander at 6 foot 4, Goldson (6-3), Aribo (6-2), Balogin (6-3) and every fullback is 6 foot or taller- they have a big team and we have a relatively short team and so it will be hard to keep them out for 90 mins no matter how much we dominate games. They are an experienced well -organised and street savvy Euro outfit who know how to win cheap freekicks, slow the game down and break a teams rhythm as well as ‘work’ a ref ( especially one with Royalist procilviites). So we know they are a tough nut to crack. But Celtic will do it. Ange will do it. We are riding a the rising crest of a magnificent wave that is called Ange-Ball and Kyogo is our pilot…they look instead look sluggish and devoid of inspiration and ideas- a bit like us last season: as though some long shadow hangs over Govan way, the club, the players and when they take to the field…we’ve had Hearts away, Rangers away, Aberdeen, Hibs and Livingston will all be away in the first set of fixtures and the Huns have the exact mirror opposite start to the campaign- if by the NY game there is nothing between the clubs and we go onto slaughter them…I think that will be the pivotal moment when Kyogo will be the smiter of the Orcs and Satans kingdom will fall at Paradise…