On Thursday 28th March the following podcast was recorded on the A Celtic State of Mind platform. You can view it here or listen wherever you consume your pods.
Today we wrap up the written record of this study.
I have presented several analyses. They all have a consistent result. There is one club that is a statistically significant outlier as regards being a beneficiary of refereeing decisions – The Rangers.
A pattern of assistance for one club.
The Rangers have seen rivals Celtic win 12 of the last 13 available Premiership titles and six out of the seven since they achieved status as a topflight club. If anything, it is Celtic that one might expect to have dominance in benefitting from decision-making given superior possession (average 68 percent possession to 62 percent by The Rangers) and attacking capabilities.
The Rangers could not be considered a suffocatingly dominant side over the rest of their league like e.g. Paris Saint-Germain in France and Bayern Munich in Germany, or, errrr, Celtic.
Furthermore, many criticise Scottish referees for poor performance, but if the part-time officials overseeing full-time professionals are merely incompetent, then decision-making anomalies should have no discernible pattern.
All clubs should suffer equally from incompetence over a large sample size.
Counting Penalties
This all started by counting penalties.
The Rangers’ sagas (SAGAS – PLURAL) of not conceding a penalty were remarkable and difficult to explain (44 and 75 matches respectively since Crawford Allan was appointed Head of Refereeing Operations).
Simply counting penalties as a basis for “analysis” is inherently limited and I have used a framework that considers:
- Were penalty awards correct or not as judged by a professional, verifiably neutral expert?
- Were red card awards correct or not as judged by a professional, verifiably neutral expert?
- Were goals allowed or disallowed correctly awarded or not as judged by a professional, verifiably neutral expert?
- When awards were incorrect, what was the estimated impact in terms of expected points to the teams given the time of the award and the match score at that time?
- What was the likelihood of teams getting and conceding penalties given their attacking profiles?
- What trends were there in the distribution of penalties across multiple seasons?
- What trends were there in the distribution of red cards across multiple seasons?
- What trends were there in the estimated expected impact of red cards and penalties given game state across multiple seasons?
Given the available data, are these reasonable questions and a reasonable basis for a hypothesis set?
For each section of the multi-year analysis, the expected outcome was the same – “There should be no significant difference between distributions of data for Celtic and The Rangers”.
However, there appears to be statistically significant evidence – consistently high Z-Scores, over two standard deviations from the mean. The Rangers are the consistent statistically significant outlier.
The pattern is not of favour towards the “big clubs”, nor is it an “Old Firm” leaning. It is favourable decision-making, a pattern of assistance, for one club.
Penalties Again – Why They Matter
In particular, the awarding, or not, of penalties seems to have a distinctly one-sided pattern.
Specifically, Rangers seem to disproportionately avoid the jeopardy a penalty brings when awarded against you in football. Football is a low-scoring sport. Some argue penalties are disproportionately impactful to the penalised side. This is covered in The Athletic and by this piece in Sabermetric Research.
Essentially, if we take the example of a foul at a corner where two players are challenging for a headed ball (say Triantis of Hibernian and Souttar of The Rangers). If a foul and penalty are awarded in that situation, you penalise an approximate 5 percent scoring chance (a header from a corner has an approximate xG of 0.05) with a 77 percent chance of scoring from a penalty (penalty xG is 0.77). Exceptionally harsh.
And of course, if you are NOT awarding penalties, you are denying the attacking team that disproportionate opportunity.
The SFA appears to have a refereeing problem and it is recommended the next steps are to establish why this is, and then what can be done about it. This affects ALL clubs.
Celtic supporters can take direct action. If you are a shareholder, please register support for the following AGM resolution here – Resolution On Refereeing Standards – SENTINELCELTS.
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Appendix 1 – Data Sources
All data used is in the public domain.
Here are the sources I have used.
- Red Card information from the SPFL archive.
- Specifically, Rangers red cards are summarised on the fitbastats side
- Penalty awards from Transfermarkt.co.uk and the SPFL archive.
- Analysis from an independent, expert referee is documented on the website Celtic By Numbers.
- Video evidence for independent review comes from BBC Sportscene, the SPFL Youtube Channel, and occasionally social media clips posted by supporters.
- “Touches In The Box” data was taken from FotMob with an initial historical data scrape from Wyscout (provided by a subscriber).
- Fouls and possession data was taken from the BBC Sport website.
- I used Wyscout’s method for possession adjusting to calculate fouls based on possession.
- The Red Card expected points impact model is documented here. It is based on data from the SPFL archive and BBC Sport website.
- The expected points model was provided by the American Soccer Analysis website.
Appendix 2 – Scope
The study focuses on SPLF Premiership matches only up to 3rd January 2024. Cup competitions are too variable in terms of the level of opposition; the impacts of extra time; the use of referees outside the normal Premier League cadre; and the impacts of playing on neutral grounds.
The Rangers achieved Premiership status in the 2016-17 season. Data from this point onwards is used for benchmarking purposes and to widen the sample sizes.
For comparative purposes, the study focuses on the 2020-21 season onwards unless stated. Between 2016-17 and 2020-21, as the new “Rangers” established themselves within the Premiership, Celtic were league champions with gaps back to The Rangers of 39, 12, nine, and 13 (season curtailed due to COVID-19) points.
Beginning with the 2020-21 season, onwards, the two rivals’ level of spending on wages approached parity. In contrast, in the prior four seasons following Rangers’ promotion to the Premiership, their wage bill had been 34%, 41%, 61%, and 80% of Celtic’s. The points gap during those four seasons tallied 39, 12, 9, and 13, with the 2019-2020 season truncated by the COVID pandemic.
Upon The Rangers’ wage bill reaching 92% of Celtic’s for the 2020-2021 season, they won the league by 25 points, winning their first title since promotion. The following two seasons Celtic reclaimed the title, with second-place The Rangers four and seven points adrift.
2020-21 also saw Celtic attempting to win their 10th consecutive Premiership title which would have been a new Scottish record. Both Celtic and Rangers had won nine consecutive titles in the past, with Rangers’ consecutive stretch occurring when they similarly enjoyed a dominant financial advantage over Celtic and the rest of the league. The amount spent on wages at Celtic remained below 70% of Rangers over the period. Before the 2020-2021 season, Celtic had also enjoyed an extended period of spending far more on wages than the competition.
In addition to the historic nature associated with which the club won the 2020-2021 league title, the two subsequent seasons offered guaranteed Champions League group stage football to the Premiership winners, and upwards of £25 million in additional revenue.
In short, there has been much more at stake since 2020-21 than just winning a flag, trophy, and a medal.
John mcghee says
SCOTTISH FOOTBALL IS CORRUPT FOR THAT SCUM AT CHEATING LIEBROX THATS AFACT AND NOT A LIE..THEYALWAYS NEED HELP TOGET THEM OVER THE LINE WHEN THEY ARE STRUGGLING CRAWFORD ALLAN IS DOING A GREAT JOB FOR THE LIEBROX NEWCO WONDER HOW MUCH MONEY HE’S GETTING IF NEWCO WINS THE LEAGUE EH CHEATS OF SCOTLAND THE RANJURS 2012 OLDCO RANJURS WERE JUST AS BAD USING EBT SIDELETTERS BUT THEY WERE LIQUIDATED 2012 THE RATS OF MASONIC SCOTLAND OLDCO AND NEWCO…
Roibeard O’caisin says
I just wonder why the Celtic board won’t complain about bad decisions against us the same as rangers do, they’ve complained again about Willie collum and again he hasn’t reffed a rangers game since, the same happened a few years ago in a St Mirren game and he never got a rangers game for nearly 6 months. Celtic should have been banging on the SFA door after the Livingston game, but all we got was silence from Celtic park. The Celtic fans are fed up with all the bad decisions without any reproach, can you imagine what rangers would have done it they got the atrocious decision in the semi final we got against ICT, the guy closest to the hand ball is the same guy on VAR last week when Kyogo got clobbered, Alan Muir.
Paul says
It’s a question of class mate, they imbeciles are an embarrassment, writing letters, spitting the dummy n stamping their feet at every turn.
George H says
Alan, keep going with the tenacious calling out of the lack of MSM engagement on Twitter/X. There is a huge majority of Celtic fans behind the work you’re doing, don’t let the vocal minority dissuade you from this current theme of “Patterns of Assistance” and don’t let them try to swat you away. They can’t ignore you forever.
It’s such a sign of the times that the refereeing/VAR performance has me more worried than the boys in blue tomorrow, it’s not a fair fight and involving the other 10 Premiership clubs is something you also need to keep pursuing for the good of the game.
Keep up the great work and don’t forget your own biases, that’s how they’ll get you
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Thanks George
Totally accept my own biases are fair game. I am a Celtic supporter.
The questions an unbiased observer should ask are:
1. Are the hypotheses reasonable – i.e. are the questions being asked of the data objectively the right ones?
2. What is missing from the analysis?
3. From reading the Yorkshire Whistler’s verdicts, can we be confident of his impartiality?
4. Are the data sources used reasonable and appropriate to the questions being asked?
5. Are the sample sizes and parameters used reasonable and appropriate?
6. Are the conclusions drawn from the results reasonable?
Jim Hester says
Your framework for the analysis is commendable considering I presume it’s been a one man job outside of your own professional responsibilities. Keep at it Allan. The whole of Scottish Football owes you a great debt of gratitude and respect. It’s only by ‘spreading the gospel’ on this issue that we can highlight the disservice that is being done to them by The Rangers International FC ltd, the Referees and the the Games Administrators and gives us the opportunity to garner support from fans of the other Clubs in the League.
At some point this information will become mainstream. The SMSM, PRINT and Broadcasting cannot ignore it forever. Pity our own Club’s Administrators haven’t been proactive on this issue. However I think that on this issue and the probable penalty to be paid by allowing the situation to get this far, our Board will have no choice but to recognise the impact of allowing this years League Title to be ‘Stolen and the impact it will have on our Club, The Celtic fans and Shareholders.
HelpMordorPolis says
I take it because SFA refs are part time that is why they are excluded from officiating in competitions outwith Scottish tournaments?
The pattern is telling me the refs are one or all of the following: Clueless, Complicit or Corrupt.
Appreciate how you have articulated this football issue.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Hi
No because they have been included before
It comes down to a qualitative decision
Andrew says
Alan,
I thank you for all your hard work and dedication in producing a thoroughly compelling read for anyone with a non-Ibrox affiliation to Scottish Fitba. Their attempts to deflect the awkward facts presented are as weak and predictable as we would all expect. They are after all, “still the same club”.
It does make me wonder what Celtic or the SFA intend doing about this? Is it too much to expect them to get an independent organisation, possibly from another country with no implied bias, to do the similar research? While your work is exemplary, all good research requires scrutiny and other methodologies to check the results. If they find similar results, as I am utterly convinced they will, then surely there is a case to answer.
Keep shining the light on them. It is appreciated by all right thinking people.
Many thanks
Tom says
The Var checks for therangers penalties are to justify awarding them.
The Celtic goals and penalties Var checks are. Can we find anything to deny them
Philippe Clement says
Celtic have now had 10 penalties at Ibrox and Rangers 1 penalty at CP in the past 23 years. Rangers have also had a goal chalked off in what feels like the 379th consecutive old firm game on the bounce. Clear patterns of assistance.