Celtic escaped a complete dismantling at the hands of the Billionaires Club of Bavaria, but a 3-0 reverse was a tough watch. Positives were difficult to find and Rodgers must reflect on defensive shape and organisation once again.
This has happened to many better equipped and more monied sides than Celtic in recent times. 10 goals were thumped past perennial Champions League survivors Arsenal as recently as last season. Nevertheless, we aspire to improve on this stage. We can’t buy a Coman or a Kimmich, but we can defend better.
As always, please refer to the Glossary for definitions of unfamiliar terms.
Balance and Changes
The Scottish Champions again made changes – 4 this time – with Lustig filling the problematic central defensive position alongside Boyata in the continuing absence of Simunovic. Rodgers averages 3.9 changes per match this season, significantly more than under Deila (2.8) and under the same management last season (2.8). 16 starting line-up changes have been made over the last three games. Keeping a large squad engaged and match ready is imperative within the Scottish context, but the lack of a settled back line hampers when being tested in the elite realms of European football. Injuries have been particularly onerous this season, but the balance of the squad requires scrutiny especially in the centre back area where young prospects cannot yet be trusted in this environment.
On A Wing and A Prayer
Celtic’s defensive woes were systemic.
As early as the first minute, Roberts, whose willingness to track back and cover are a noticeable improvement in his game, chose to chase the ball and left Alaba. This led to an early scare but set the tone for overloads and overlaps down both flanks, leading to frequent excursions into the Celtic box. A simple enough mistake but the tone was set.
Life was not much better on the left, in fact, worse. Whereas Gamboa and Roberts manfully stuck to task, being undone by world class movement and pace by Alaba and the jet-fuelled Coman, Tierney and Sinclair were identified and exploited. Productive attacking forces in Scotland, at this highest level Tierney is often out of alignment with the other defenders in his natural desire to support Sinclair. As early as the 6th minute, Kimmich was accurately finding Lewandowski, who took it in turns with Muller to pull to the Celtic left to exploit the space in the full back position. A minute later the same happened, although this time it is Boyata’s tracking of Muller that unbalances the defence.
Bayern Munich did not have a shot until the 13th minutes and if this sounds like a solid start from Celtic, the statistic is misleading. Not only did Lewandowski appear to successfully get the ball from the goal line back to Thiago to score (disallowed as the ball was adjudged out) but Lustig escaped a clear pull back on the same player within the box.
It wasn’t as if the Germans were pressing particularly aggressively. More that they were disciplined about keeping their team shape. However, Celtic seemed to have a collective failure of nerve as 1. Defenders were reluctant to try and find team mates if they were covered (they always were) and 2. movement seemed lacking. By the 22nd minute the goalkeeper and defenders had given away 14 passes and Brown, the deepest midfielder 2. None of the front 5 had given the ball away once! Gordon’s distribution in the first half was particularly problematic. He completed 11 passes but gave the ball away 12 times. Long diagonals to the small full backs were inaccurate and ineffective. Neither did they gain territory and respite.
What did not help was the midfield shape. Armstrong is not a number 10. I analysed this last season (this wonderous article explains The Renaissance Man). A flat and narrow three in midfield had been tried against Paris Saint-Germain. That failed due to lack of clarity on defensive organisation – neither pressing nor sitting deep. Deploying Armstrong ahead of Brown and Ntcham simply stretched the game. Celtic have suffered from this for three games in a row now. Hibernian and Dundee deployed full court presses with three forwards pushed on the back line and man markers in midfield. Bayern Munich did neither as aggressively, but somehow Celtic could not connect. The three forwards were therefore isolated. This gave Celtic a further defensive problem because there was little support to the wide areas where all the trouble was. A narrower three in midfield would have allowed the wider midfielders in the three to cover the wings.
In the 17th minute, the Kimmich to Lewandowski connection was successful again. And from the resulting play, the Germans scored.
Individual errors for sure, but collectively there seemed little confidence and communication within the unit.
The movement of Lewandowski, Muller, Robben and Coman is exceptional. Each racked up 60 or more Impect Pass Receive points over the game. For context, the highest Celt was Sinclair with 20. Griffiths averages 67 largely against domestic opposition. Matching that movement and stopping the ball reaching talented players in advance positions is the challenge.
I hate to use the word “efficient”, but on 60% possession, Bayern Munich managed to obtain possession in the Celtic box 54 times. The highest Celtic have managed this season is 40, at home to Linfield, which as I showed in the joyous article Celtic Play The Blues is synonymous with playing Albion Rovers. Celtic secured possession in the home side box 13 times.
After 29 minutes, Coman blasted past Gamboa as he did three times in the first half. Gamboa must be one of the quickest players in Scotland, never mind Celtic. The young Frenchman’s pace is astonishing.
And as the ball was swung in deep, the home side seemed to anticipate better.
Sinclair’s ability to work back and track runners can be sporadic, as shown by the second goal for Kimmich. He arrives a fraction of a second after this picture is taken. But as we see above, there is no real marking of the attackers in the box. Systemic failure.
Bayern Munich then had a bit of a rest at 2-0, managing only 2 more shots between the 29th and 51st minutes. Celtic only had one, but were grateful to have some safe ball in their own half that made the possession statistics look better but didn’t threaten.
The third goal killed the game and threatened to usher in a rout.
Later in the half, on 61 minutes, a Robben header from a corner is cleared off the line by Gamboa on the back post. A lesson learned, but too late.
8 defensive errors mirrors the calamity in Astana when 4 goals brought the spectre of losing a 5-0 lead into view.
You simply cannot defend like this at this level.
In many ways it was a similarly insipid display to the 7-0 rout at Barcelona. Celtic conceded 4 fouls all game. Not to say they should run around kicking the opposition, but pressing hard, forcing the play will bring the collateral of a few free kicks conceded. Celtic averaged 9.6 fouls conceded per match before this. It is not the fouling, but the aggressive intent which it indicates. In arguably their toughest assignment of the season, with 60% of the time without the ball, Celtic won 24 challenges all game, the lowest of the season. Clichés about earning the right to play should be inserted right about here.
Bayern Munich Pack Pass Map
The German’s wide play is best illustrated using the Pack Pass Map. “Packing” and “Impect” are German inventions, and so, appropriate. The concepts are explained here in another article without boundaries of quality (Concerning “Packing”).
Note that this map shows completed Pack Passes only, not all passes. It includes Pack Passes achieved by the starting XI to the 67th minute only.
Bayern Munich worked the over and underlaps mercilessly down the flanks. The map illustrates this, and the extent the experienced trio of Muller, Robben and Lewandowski were able to take the ball under pressure in advanced areas. Thiago was the orchestrator ably backed up by the tidy Rudy. Both Kimmich and Robben on the right and Alaba and Coman on the left were able to create danger at will. The Germans crashed in 28 crosses, of which only 4 were successful. This illustrates the extent to which Celtic were on the back foot.
It further illustrates how quietly devastating Robben was. He led the team with the highest Total Impect. How he must love, at 33, having Kimmich behind him doing all that running.
Muller seemed to have free reign to find space. He rarely plays a Hollywood pass although did set up 3 scoring chances. Rather it is his ability to get into positions to receive, to find space, as the Packing data shows, that marks him out as a danger.
Lies and Statistics
A look at the possession numbers suggests the game was not overly one sided. No team has racked up as many passes against Celtic domestically as Celtic managed in the big red spaceship (366). The away team’s passing success matched that of the Germans with 86% passes completed. And 40% possession is respectable.
All the above is indicative of a respectable performance. But it is what you do with that possession that counts. We need to look at the other team data to build a truer reflection of the game.
When Statistics Don’t Lie
A look at the game attacking data summary reveals the extent to which the home side managed to create promising positions.
The sheer productivity of the German Champions front line was impressive. 23 chances created, 13 shots on target, 15 shots in the box, 54 possessions in the box and 12 corners to 3 being indicative of far greater threat than mere possession dominance. Lewandowski did not score but was allowed 7 efforts at goal.
Bringing on the €80 million James Rodriguez and €40 million Arturo Vidal, the game could have gotten out of hand for Celtic. In a high quality cameo, Vidal had 3 efforts at goal and created 2 chances. They combined for the pass of the match when Rodriguez chipped the ball over the Celtic midfield and defence for a Vidal volley at Gordon. Both players recorded higher Impect scores (Rodriguez 46, Vidal 44) in their brief minutes than any Celt.
Battling Bhoys
For Celtic there were manful efforts. There is no suggestion here that a team like Celtic can beat an expensively assembled super club like Die Bayern. However, there are minimum standards of defensive organisation that should be expected to be as competitive as possible.
Gordon made 8 saves, 4 of them difficult. His kicking improved in the second half and he only gave possession away 5 times from 22 attempts compared to the first half.
In defence, Boyata escaped any impactful personal errors, and was generally solid.
Sinclair was picked out in the press after the game for some particularly useless statistics around who he had received the ball from or not. He received scant service, in line with Griffiths and Roberts, but was the most productive Celt with what possession he had.
Overall Gordon was the Bhoy of the Match for Celtic.
A sobering, but expected result. But after being harried and pressed with some success by Hibernian and Dundee, it is the performance that should most exercise the manager.
Excellent dissection of our vulnerabilities.
I felt that, apart from at Gordon’s kick outs, Hibs did not deploy a hard press against our back line today but we still ended up having far too many passes made by our two least reliable passer, Craig Gordon and Dedrick Boyata.
Scott Brown makes himself regularly available; other midfielders need to step up to the mark.