Can Celtic Flick The Form Switch Again?

The mantra of last season was “Relentless” as Celtic stormed a treble undefeated. This season Celtic have (domestically) predominantly “Rested With The Ball”, in many games seeming to do the minimum to win. But the Cup competitions have been different. Every game a title on the line.

Can Celtic flick the “Form Switch” once again versus Motherwell on Saturday and clinch an unprecedented double Treble?

The Glossary remains undefeated, impervious to the vagaries of form and injury.

Resting With the Ball

The can be no denying Celtic have not displayed the relentless attacking football of last season in the SPFL.

• 82 points compared to 106;
• 73 goals compared to 106;
• 24 wins compared to 34.

I don’t need to use fancy stats or deep analysis to hammer home what has been clear for us all to see. I have been over the reasons for this in many blogs and on Twitter.

• Injuries to key creative players all at the same time hampered the attacking potency.
• The opposition has generally improved especially Hibernian, Heart of Midlothian and Kilmarnock.
• SPFL sides are also more familiar with a team and manager not greatly changed one season on.
• There is a cumulative combat weariness to the squad.
• With hardly a summer break, continuing World Cup Qualifying and 60 matches to add to 59 last season, the players are probably a % or two below peak conditioning.
• Finally, there was a momentum to last season. Starting with the enthusiasm from a new manager, and of qualifying for the Champions League for the first time in three seasons. The team played attacking football and Armstrong, Sinclair, Rogic, Forrest, Roberts, Dembele, Griffiths all had stellar and productive seasons. It couldn’t be maintained.
• (whisper it) Celtic probably “over performed” last season. 106 SPFL goals compared to Expected Goals (xG) of 88 suggests so.

But I posit that Celtic have wilfully managed their way through the SPFL campaign whilst upping the intensity for the Cup matches. If you can achieve the same result with less effort, why wouldn’t you? Why play with huge intensity every match to win the league by 30 points when you can play more conservatively and still win it with games to spare? It’s human nature after all.

Relentless

For the analysis of Celtic Cup games I have discounted the 5-0 win over Brechin City and the 3-0 win over Greenock Morton. The analysis therefore only contains data from matches against SPFL Premiership opponents so that I can compare like for like with SPFL matches.

The most basic statistics show that Celtic have piled on 3.67 goals per game in Cups compared to 1.92 in the SPFL. A look at the Shot data suggests very little difference in performance between League and Cup:

Slightly more Shots in the Box being taken in league games and 0.1 more shots in Total in the SPFL. But to measure the quality of the chances being created our old friends Expected Goals and Assists are required.

Celtic have significantly over performed in Cups in terms of scoring versus the quality of the chances created. Conversely they have underperformed in the SPFL. This is a small sample and it could just be down to luck. Or it could be that sharper focus in Cup matches has resulted in a better quality of chance creation. Better movement and positioning will result in being presented with better chances. It could be Celtic’s concentration and execution have been heightened in Cup games.

Is there any other evidence to support this?

When we look at possession Celtic have 69% in Cup matches compared to 68% in the SPFL. Not much difference. But, for virtually the same possession, Celtic completed an average of 623 passes in the Cups compared to 562 in the SPFL games. That suggests to me a higher tempo in Cup matches – completing more passes with the same amount of possession is indicative of moving the ball quicker.

Looking deeper at passing reveals that across all Cup and SPFL matches 11% of all Celtic passes “Pack” at least one opponent. That is, 11% of passes are forward passes that take at least one opponent out the game. These are important types of passes as they move the team forwards and remove opponents from being behind the ball. Of course because Celtic are completing MORE passes in Cup matches, they are completing MORE Pack Passes. Indeed Celtic complete 10 more Pack Passes (67) than in SPFL matches (57). The result of this is that the Pass Impect (the total score of opponents bypassed – awarding 3 for a defender, 2 for a midfielder and 1 for a forward) is 366 for Cup matches and 309 for the SPFL. Celtic make more material forward passes in Cup matches.

Let’s now consider how Celtic allow the opposition to play. The Cup matches appear to be more open, not surprising as playing for a draw is less likely than in the SPFL. The opposition also complete more passes in Cup matches (204 to 185) and achieve a better Total Impect (179 to 156). Celtic have conceded 0.67 goals per game compared to 0.64 in the SPFL.

However, despite more opposition possession, Celtic do a better job of restricting shots and chance quality in the Cups than they do in the SPFL.

On all counts, Celtic contain the opposition more effectively in the Cup matches. And furthermore this reflects in the chance quality as expressed by xG and xA.

Furthermore, there is evidence Celtic defend better in Cup matches. Total Team Defensive Action Success Rate (DASR%) is 54% in Cups versus 52% in the SPFL. As I showed in Head Bhoy, small margins separate “average” from “good” with this metric. Indeed, opposition team DASR% drops from 50% in the SPFL to 47% in Cup matches.

Celtic seem to put the opposition under more pressure in Cup matches, whilst completing more successful defensive actions themselves.

Summary

Celtic seem to raise their game for domestic Cup matches mindful that each game sees the potential to lose a title. They seem to play at a higher pace and with more precision and incisiveness in attack. Additionally, Celtic’s defensive performances improves when it is win or bust.

The sample sizes are low so there is caution in this analysis. There is hope through evidence that recent soporific SPFL form will not be in evidence at Hampden as Celtic reset to Cup mode.

This is the first of three Cup Final previews. There will be an assessment of Clancy, the Man in Black. And finally, a detailed look at Motherwell with so, so many more graphs!