With only one striker for much of the season, it is the blossoming Forrest that has led the Scoring Contribution chart so far.
Scoring Contribution
Scoring Contribution is simply Goals + Assists. Forrest has an incredible 16 assists to add to his 11 goals. Edouard is top scorer with 14 goals, and 8 assists.
The other double figures contributor is McGregor who has 10 assists.
For reference, last season the top Scoring Contributor was Sinclair with 33. Forrest is well on course to beat that. Celtic have been a side where goals and assists are spread around over the last 2 years. Struggling to keep strikers fit is probably partly the reason.
Expected Scoring Contribution
Expected Scoring Contribution (xSC) tells us how many goals and assists the player would have been expected given the quality of chances created.
Forrest and Edouard are significantly out performing their xSC by 8 and 4 respectively. They may maintain this run, but assuming they create/receive the same quality of chances, we can expect their Scoring Contributions to decrease.
The next 9 players on the list are all under performing their expected scoring contributions. And this has been more the theme of Celtic’s season so far. As a team Celtic are still scoring less than expected and have been for a season and a half. This followed over performance in the Invincible season.
The player who has suffered most from the vagaries of fortune in football is Ntcham. He has over 7 less goals and assists that he could expect.
But apart from Forrest and Edouard there are only some defenders with tiny over performances versus expected.
Still plenty of scope for inevitable regression to the mean to work in Celtic’s favour.
Scoring Contributions Per 90m
The above shows the same SC and xSC but removing the vagaries of minutes played shows the per 90n averages.
By this measure the strikers are at the top of the table and the presence of Dembele and Griffiths illustrates how they are missed.
Splitting the strikers is Christie. He has an xSC of 0.79 and is slightly underperforming that with 0.71 per 90m. This highlights the huge positive impact he has had on the side.
Also noteworthy is Johnston with a similarly healthy xSC of 0.662 whilst attaining 0.6.
Top scorers Edouard and Forrest have only the 4th and 7th best xSC rates in the squad.
Morgan is this season’s Hayes. He has a respectable xSC of 0.389 per 90m but hasn’t registered a goal or assist yet. This is what they mean by “it’s not happening for him”.
Summary
Edouard and Forrest are having great seasons and Forrest is already in double figures for goals and assists. They will struggle to maintain their scoring rates unless they improve the quantity and quality of chances.
Celtic desperately need a couple more strikers who will be creating the expected outcomes Dembele and Griffiths would have.
Christie is doing great things and needs to be a regular in this form.
Hopefully luck will change for Ntcham and Morgan in particular.