By James Dailey
Saturday’s 5-0 result versus St. Mirren was a continuation of domestic dominance this season. Advanced analytics and related statistics have more value over larger sample sizes, as normal variance in a single game, or even a group of games, can deviate significantly from underlying metrics. Clearly a 5-0 result is better than a 3-1 result when playing a comparable opponent, but results are not the same as performance levels. Over time, results tend to mean revert towards underlying performance metrics. Today I am going to do an in-depth comparative analysis of Saturday’s performance with the recent 3-1 victory over Kilmarnock.
I’ve been consistently on record about my preference for playing Callum McGregor in place of Scott Brown at the central defensive midfield position, but this shift is only partly about that direct impact. As I’ll document, I believe it is just as important for Celtic’s midfield to play Ryan Christie as a box to box attacking 8.
Kilmarnock / St Mirren
First, let’s review the team-level stats for the two games:
While the resulting 5-0 score suggests a dominant performance, the underlying data (excluding penalties) and metrics are quite clear that the performance in the Kilmarnock game was significantly better. I think it is noteworthy that the dominance was comprehensive with complete control of the game, both in attack and defensively. Besides the obvious disparity in xG (for context the 7-0 drubbing in 2016-17 to Barcelona was 2.91 to 0.05), I think the Passes Per Defensive Action (PPDA), which is a proxy for pressing intensity, is a real standout, and is reflected in the higher level of Interceptions and Recoveries as a team.
Brown / McGregor
Here are metrics comparing the performances of Scott Brown in the St. Mirren game versus Callum McGregor in the Kilmarnock game. While Neil Lennon has declared Brown fit, in fairness I think the following comparison should be considered in the context of the potential that declaration is not accurate:
As you can see, outside of Recoveries, the rest of the data pretty much speaks for itself. Perhaps the most telling stat to me is the contrast in number of passes straight back to Jullien. Also, McGregor excels at making himself available with elite movement, which is reflected in his incredibly high number of passes received.
McGregor / Christie
I do not conduct these analysis or comparisons to “tear down” players, but rather try to assess how our squad and players can be better utilized. This is highlighted in comparing McGregor’s performance as an attacking 8 versus St. Mirren with Ryan Christie fulfilling largely the same role versus Kilmarnock. I think McGregor is a terrific player no matter where he plays in midfield – the question is where should he play to have our best midfield as a unit?
What stands out to me and is likely not a surprise to anyone who regularly watches Celtic, is that Christie runs around like a lunatic – and I mean that in a good way. His work rate and “engine” are tremendous, and I believe perfectly suited for a box to box midfielder. His volume of engaging in duels and creative activity attacking the opponent’s box are excellent. His 9 defensive duels are higher than Scott Brown’s career per game average of 8, just to place that into perspective. His 11 Progressive Runs compare to Stuart Armstrong’s career best at Celtic of 6. His running and defensive cover are superior to McGregor’s which offers a combination where he and McGregor as a 6 are better defensively than the combination of Brown and McGregor.
Conclusion
While my preference is for a fit Olivier Ntcham to play as the right sided 8 alongside McGregor at the 6 and Christie as the left sided 8, I believe the key is the McGregor-Christie combination. McGregor is a very good attacking 8, but Christie is better. Brown, at this stage in his career, is a good defensive midfielder, but McGregor is better. I’d love to see the two play in the best positions for overall team performance at Ibrox – a Bhoy can dream…maybe next season!
With you 100% on this. Broony is a legend but I thought for a long time now we get more from Calmac in the 6 role.
Great analysis – spot on imo!
I’ve been saying this since last season. Our football was awful until Brown got injured and McGregor moved back. The home game against Leipzig is perhaps the best football we have played against an elite European side since Martin O’Neill’s ripped Lyon apart. The midfield 3 that night was McGregor Christie Rogic. We then went on a superb run of form playing some terrific football until the infamous McGregor at left back at Ibrox at new year.
At that point I thought Brown was finished, but to be fair to him he was been excellent this year, wth Lennon’s more direct style suiting him, but I would still love to see McGregor sitting deep with Christie and Ntcham as double 8s. You can then go with a front 3 of Mo, Eddy, Forrest, or play a diamond with Rogic in behind a front 2.
I see a lot of hype for Billy Gilmour, for his awareness, movement and ability to play penetrating passes through the lines. He’s 5ft 6 and playing as a defensive midfield role in the Premier League. This is what McGregor can bring, as well as a goal and assist threat. He’s also underrated as a ball winner, if still short of Brown.
Given Brown is rarely even given a rest, there seems little chance we’ll see it this season. But I had a look back to the huns 10IAR season, one of the big mistakes I think they made, was bringing all the old boys back for 1 more run at it as they had been over the course before. Maybe a more dynamic midfield next season will freshen it up and take us to the promised land
Hello Davie,
I largely agree with your characterization and comments – in case you missed it, the piece I did last week compared that stretch with Brown out of the team (which included that Leipzig game) with this season’s excellent team performance level.
One interesting thing that surprised me when I went back and analyzed all those games was that Rodgers, for the most part, played McGregor and Christie as dual 6’s in a 4-2-3-1. It was only for about 60 minutes in the Salzburg home game that McGregor played as a central 6, with Christie and Rogic as 8’s. That could also have been because Rogic is quite clearly better suited as a 10 instead of a right sided 8!
I agree that Calmac and Christie is the way forward with either Ntcham or Rogic making the third partner. As for freshening things up we have a slew of youngsters waiting in the wings; McInroy, Robertson, Henderson, Soro and Connell. Dembele can play the 10 role also. Of course the versatile Bitton is another number 6 who is very experienced.
BR stumbled upon Calmac as 6 and Christie as 8 due to the huge injury list at the time! That should not be forgotten. I think Christie could even play left wing back he is so talented.
Thanks for all the stats, it helps to crystallizes what I see at times. I enjoyed the previous piece also. Great site!
Yea I agree with you on the mcgregor/Christie issue but Brown is the guy that strikes fear and doubts into opponents, every team needs a S.Brown and we have the original, we need that extra physicality he brings, or we would be without it and getting bullied by all, we already suffer more dangerous tackles than most ,as teams struggle to break us down.