Celtic scored 147 goals in winning a treble last season, in all competitions. 2.77 per game. This season was always going to be some kind of transition from Ange Postecoglou to Brendan Rodgers and we do not have to rehash the recruitment story. Those goals came from shots rated with an overall xG of 139. … [continue reading]
Team Performance
Shot Quality / ‘Keeper Workloads
Using Opta data from FotMob we can compare the quality of shots for and against, and the extent to which teams are making the goalkeepers work. Shots For The following plots the average expected goals (xG) of each shot generated and the number of saves per 90m each team is forcing the opposition goalkeeper to … [continue reading]
Plotting the Difference
One of the standard metrics I track is the difference between Celtic’s expected goals scored and conceded. The rule of thumb is that the higher this value, the less likely that normal football variance factors such as opposition goalkeepers, poor finishing, bad luck, and refereeing, will impact the likely result adversely. A differential of around … [continue reading]
The “Slow & Ponderous” Fallacy
A comment I see often referring to Celtic under Brendan Rodgers can be summarised as “slow and ponderous build up”. Someone even sent me this from the Opta data driven The Analyst site to illustrate. Apologies this will look very small on a ‘phone! Follow the link above to browse more comfortably. Celtic are firmly … [continue reading]
The December Slog
The December slogfest of fixtures started as a feature in the 2016-17 season with the reimposition of a January “break”. Not playing for three weeks essentially meant shoehorning more games into the pre year end period when European football tends to rest until February. So, a reminder, it is ALWAYS a slog! If we look … [continue reading]
Finding Forward Solutions
One of the issues against Kilmarnock was the inability to convert good field positions into chances. Celtic were relying on playing through their wide players, or linking with Kyogo Furuhashi dropping deep, or the number eights creating from the centre. Compared to the first two games of the season, Kyogo did not get on the … [continue reading]
The Deep End
Last night’s friendly for James Forrest’s testimonial was another useful work out against high calibre opponents. All Celtic’s preseason opponents are of a higher standard than most SPFL clubs as the ELO ratings would indicate. Given the mix of higher-level opponent, multiple lineup changes, integration of new players and injury disruption, it is not surprising … [continue reading]
Two Tier Squad
A feature of this season that I believe has had a dramatically positive impact on Celtic team performances is the five-substitute rule. Initially introduced to allow teams more flexibility through the COVID-19 disruption, the nine-man substitute bench with allowance to chance five from that bench is now embedded in most competitions. It would also be … [continue reading]
Feeling Good About Pressing
During Celtic’s 3-2 Derby win against The Rangers on Saturday, my main focus when watching was the number of poor passes from Celtic. This was certainly borne out by the overall passing data as Celtic completed 82% of all passes compared to 87% average for all games this season. That is actually the lowest of … [continue reading]
You’re Packed!
I often go on about Packing because I find it very useful and informative. The correlation between good packing scores and overall value of the player is quite strong in my opinion although I haven’t substantiated that assertion. As passing accounts for 75%+ of on ball events, and packing is primarily concerned with attributing value … [continue reading]