A Derby rollercoaster went the way of Celtic at an emotional Ibrox. Defensive frailties abounded as Edouard’s development took another step forward with a classy winner.
The Glossary is free from colourful chanting.
Selection Risks, Positional Errors
The decision to play Boyata despite no match time since February 3rd meant that Celtic had Ajer out of position at right back and a debut in goal for Bain, who hadn’t played since October 2017. That doesn’t scream stability. But with the home sides strengths being down the flanks and a propensity to get lots of crosses into the box, a back three was probably unwise.
Boyata’s unforced error, hesitating then attempting to flick a pass to Tierney rather than the simpler pass back to his debutant ‘keeper, stoked the emotional cauldron after a mere 2 minutes. The Belgian internationalist spent the rest of the half displaying poor body shape and sluggish footwork. Mentally, he was often out of position.
I’ll cover the second goal further on but being bullied by Morelos thus failing to block John’s cross, allied to the dreadful first 2 minutes meant the selection risk is difficult to justify. By half time his Defensive Action Success Rate was 43% – the high benchmark (the Van Dijk index) is 81%, with 75% being a “norm”.
To balance, and give credit to Boyata, his second half improved. Perhaps being down to 10 men simplified the game and allowed him to focus on defending 1st, 2nd and 3rd. But he still racked up another calamitous defensive error over anticipating and letting Morelos a free run on goal.
The new defensive unit struggled throughout the half. The Rangers played deep and hit early long balls into the channels. As we will see, there was no home side domination despite what the media may tell you. Yet dangerous moments were frequent as Celtic defenders were caught out of position by long balls.
In particular, Tierney was so advanced on occasions some Celtic fans swore the team were playing a back three. They were not.
However, it was the midfielder cum central defensive student playing right back that was initially caught out for the 2nd goal, triggering systemic failure.
The defence was once more pulled out of shape through poor initial positioning and paid the price. Tierney was back this time, but was ball watching not keeping an eye on Candeias.
The Rangers aimed to stretch the game, getting the ball forward quickly knowing Celtic’s propensity to have the full backs high.
In addition, this meant Celtic could not get their patient passing game going as the home side pressed early and high. Celtic defenders completed only 4 forward passes in the first half that took out an opponent. The Celtic team were stretched and disconnected from each other making their passing game harder.
And yet, despite all of that, at half time, by all the key performance indicators, Celtic should have been ahead.
Edit: TRFC 38% Possession Celtic 38% Challenges WOn
Only in challenges won were the home side ahead. Celtic had created more and better-quality chances as well as dominating possession. Between the 26th minute goal and the 61st minute, The Rangers did not have a single shot at goal.
Explaining the Petard Thing
Furthermore, the Champions undid the Light Blues defence at their own game on all their goals.
At the first, a long pass from Bain allowed Ajer to win an easy header on half way.
The Rangers had this issue in September when losing 2-0. Neither Jack nor Dorrans (on that occasion) had the positional nor defensive discipline to truly anchor the midfield and shield the defence. Both were neat and tidy passers of the ball with limited “six” skills. Similarly, Docherty and Goss fail to stop Rogic picking the ball up in the “ten” space. It is a very simple goal to concede from their perspective.
For the second by Dembele, a free kick had been defended and cleared by the home side when Brown picked the ball up from Bain. This time it was Celtic that went long and early letting Dembele compete one on one with Cardoso.
And for the winner, Celtic’s first half weaknesses were mirrored in the home defence.
Celtic love a fast counter and the high pressing Tavernier, although the home sides most effective attacker especially in tandem with Candeias, was exposed.
Celtic have created 71 chances from fast breaks this season, scoring a remarkable 21 goals. Virtually 30% of breaks result in goals. Lessons for Europe, surely.
Murty seemed very slow to make changes and did not even utilise his bench fully. Against 10, Celtic allowed the home side wide possession and Tavernier and Candeias seemed to be over powering the unprotected Tierney. The Rangers banged in 19 crosses in the second half, only 2 finding blue shirts. Their one central passing move resulted in a shot for Windass that Bain saved, and Morelos hit the post for want of a left foot. £20+ million doesn’t get a lot these days. Only Bayern Munich (28) have exceeded the 24 crosses the home side attempted here.
Plenty of defensive improvements needed at both sides. For Celtic, the problems remain the lack of stability of selection, and playing players out of position. Domestically, a back three is surely preferable in most games to free Tierney from what seems are his defensive burdens. Against the same opponent in the Scottish Cup Semi Final however, the flanks need much more protection that they received here.
Frank M says
Thank you for an excellent and insightful analysis as usual.
You put the MSM to shame.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Thank you
Michael says
Great analysis – possession and challenges won percentages both add up to 90% in the first half. Did Collum win the other 10%?
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
thanks – good spot
Matt K says
Intelligent insightful analysis. Absolute quality please continue. Wish our overpaid flabby brained pundits on BBC skotchland and sky could produce such good stuff.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
thank you
Tony says
Great insightful read as usual.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
thank you
Gordon Durham says
That was very interesting and I think BR and his team should have a read at that. This is something they should be working on, and try and shore up the defence. Cause let’s be honest, you could drive a bus through that defence. HH.
jimmybee says
Great work again always enjoyable to read.
The lead upto their first goal theres a definate foul on forrest in front of collum.
He turns a blind eye and we are out of position.
No excuse for Boyata and his action i know, but a fouls a foul and the ball wouldnt have been where it was sent.
I think without a proper right back we were going to struggle.
Lustig though much off form this season would have protected more, and allowed forrest to get at the full back.
But great work again thank you.
Stephen Foley says
Interesting . So tell me, where did you get your coaching badges?
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Hi Stephen I don’t claim to be a coach. I just report what I see. The coaching I have done and accreditation achieved is through the FA in Sheffield.
Steve says
Thanks . Great work
F.Green says
I’m a tad late in catching up ( Cheltenham week) but the quality of your analysis continues to be first class . Thanks for keeping us informed. ?
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Hope Cheltenham was all you wanted it to be! And thank you.