Celtic Loves You More Than You Will Know

Many Celtic supporters believe since Tommy Gemmell, we have been starved of quality left backs until Emilio Izaguirre signed from Motagua (Honduras) in August 2010, with the honourable exception of Tom Boyd (364 appearances over 11 years). And now we have Kieran Tierney, a Celtic boy who has grown up at the club. As Izaguirre hits 30 and Tierney prepares to leave his teenage years, I compare the performance of, arguably, our 2 best left backs of the last 15 years.

Emilio Izaguirre

Izaguirre has already delivered a highly successful professional career. He has won 11 domestic honours in club football as well as representing his country 88 times. He has played at 2 World Cups for Honduras and represented his country in many regional international tournaments.

His initial season (2010/11) at Celtic was stellar as he swept the board of Players, Sports Writers and SPFL Player of the Year awards. Interest from Manchester United was reported at the time. Such is the capricious nature of football that a serious ankle injury sustained in the second league game of the following season resulted in a 29-match absence.

Season	Total Mins	Games Started	90 mins	Used Sub	Unused Sub	Not In Squad	Injured	Suspended	Internationals
2010/11	3632	42	36	0	1	7	0	0	0
2011/12	927	11	7	3	5	5	29	0	1
2012/13	4020	45	31	4	0	9	0	0	0
2013/14	4047	46	41	0	1	4	0	1	1
2014/15	5022	56	52	2	0	1	2	0	0
2015/16	1925	21	19	5	17	11	1	2	1
2016/17	1239	13	12	3	14	8	0	0	0

Despite this, Izaguirre racked up nearly 150 appearances over the next 3 seasons, a first pick for Lennon and used exhaustively by Deila starting 56 of 61 games in 2014/15. Injury has mercifully been a stranger to Izaguirre over this period, but time and the emerging of new talent saw him end 2015/16 as back up to the then 18-year-old Tierney. Tierney remained 1^st pick under Rodgers until injury allowed Izaguirre an extended run this season. Now that Tierney is fit again, Izaguirre appears to be 2^nd choice. His contract is up at the end of the season and at 30, what does the future hold for a player who has passed 250 appearances for Celtic?

Kieran Tierney

A Celt since 7 years old, Tierney is a huge favourite as his career journey is the one the supporter on the terrace would love to emulate. The ball boy made good. He already has 2 Scotland caps and a league title.

Having been given a first sub appearance and then full start under Deila at the end of the 2014/15 season, immediately giving the ball away coming on against Dundee at 17 years old! He would go on to take the left back spot from Izaguirre in 2015/16. Winning both Players and Sports Writers Young Player of the Year awards his Celtic career continued to have an uncanny parallel with Izaguirre’s in that he suffered a serious leg injury in October 2016 and missed the next 15 games.

Season	Total Mins	Games Started	90 mins	Used Sub	Unused Sub	Not In Squad	Injured	Suspended	Internationals
2014/15	78	1	0	0	4	56	0	0	0
2015/16	2830	33	27	0	12	12	0	0	0
2016/17	1742	20	19	0	0	2	15	0	0

On return from injury, Rodgers has promoted him straight back to start the 2 games that followed. In another parallel with Izaguirre, Manchester United as well as other TV cash rich clubs are rumoured to be interested in the boy who appears to want nothing more than to play for his idols. Money nearly always has the loudest voice in football, but Celtic supporters hope it does not speak persuasively to Tierney, not yet.

In the 3 seasons of performance data available to CBN, how do they compare?

Analysis

Izaguirre played a remarkable 56 games in 2014/15 completing 90 mins 52 times. Comparing those 2 seasons for Izaguirre, his performances appeared to improve in 2015/16 despite Tierney winning his place as we’ll see below. The strain of playing so many games as well as Internationals and traveling in 2014/15 may have contributed.

Izaguirre Defending 2014-15

Izaguirre is an influential player, he is involved in over 80 events per game and passes more than 50 times per match. His style is to try and play out from defence thus he does not clear the ball (bang it up the park!) often (2.92 per 90m). He is quick and aggressive and wins 60% of tackles averaging 5.22 won per 90m. He concedes 1.3 fouls per 90m, and this, allied to a defensive error rate of 0.78 per game (only Ambrose and Mulgrew had higher that season) suggests the speed and aggression may not always be allied to astute decision making.

Izaguirre Attacking 2014-15

Izaguirre enjoyed plenty of attacking possession and in 2014/15 it was notable to observe the effective combination play with Stokes over the season. Stokes created 40 chances that season at 1.37 per 90m and contributed 14 assists. Izaguirre often facilitated this – the pair would play 1-2s down the left flank with exaggerated understanding. He contributed 8 assists at 0.14 per 90m. Not possessing an accurate long shot, nor taking free kicks or penalties (apart from the one we all remember against Dundee!) Izaguirre has a low scoring rate with 1 goal from 23 shots. Quick and strong he managed 0.94 successful dribbles per 90m, attempting 104 over the season.

The following season (15-16) Tierney emerged and Izaguirre played 1925 minutes to 2830 from the teenager. Comparing defensive performance first:

Izaguirre Defending 2015/16

Tierney Defending 2015/16

What this shows is that the top right portion concerned with overall passing and possession effectiveness has Izaguirre dominating as he completed 64.38 passes per 90m, up an incredible 14 passes from the previous season. His PEI of 77% was also up 5%, a significant jump, helped by a 4% increase in passing accuracy. He averaged 96 possession events per game.

Tierney in comparison, as an 18 year old, was less influential in terms of possession, averaging 84 possession events per game, completing 45.41 passes per 90m with a PEI of 68% – no defender had less.

However, Tierney immediately matches his more experienced colleague in terms of tackles won (6.46 – 6.26), % tackles won (68-71) and bests him in intercepts won (4.39 – 3.79). Tierney executed a lot more clearances (6.49 – 3.46) displaying a “safety first” attitude to defending in contrast to Izaguirre’s tendency to try and play out from the back. Most startlingly for one so young he managed to only concede 0.54 fouls per 90m compared to 1.26 by Izaguirre. Tierney appears to have strong defensive instincts allied to sound decision making and his error rate of 0.32 per 90m was better than ALL Celtic defenders with any significant appearances that season. Izaguirre’s error rate of 0.98 per 90m was better than most of the centre backs but higher than the other full backs.

And remember, Izaguirre’s performance data in this season is BETTER than 2014/15.

Izaguirre Attacking 2015/16

Tierney Attacking 2015/16

We’ve already covered the fact Izaguirre completes more passes overall and more accurately. In term of attacking output neither presented much goal threat (bottom right) with Tierney managing 1 goal from 18 efforts and Izaguirre 2 from 10 in the incredible 6-0 win over Dundee where he missed a penalty for a hat-trick!

In terms of creating, Tierney racked up 8 assists at 0.26 per game – this is near the same rate Sinclair and Forrest are achieving this season. Izaguirre managed 3 assists at 0.14 per 90, in line with the previous season. Tierney attempted to set up 38 chances and succeeded 19 times, whilst Izaguirre created 19 chances from 34 attempts. But remember Tierney has a lot less overall passes per 90m – he passes on average 20 times a game LESS than Izaguirre yet created as any chances and twice the assist rate. And he was 18.

Finally, Izaguirre again is quick and strong and completed 0.94 dribbles per 90m, 20 out of 39. Tierney is immediately completing 1.18 per 90m (Roberts managed 2.72 per 90m) completing 37 out of 64.

In 2016/16, under Rodgers, Tierney has completed 1729 mins and Izaguirre 1239.

Izaguirre Defending 2016/17

Tierney Defending 2016/17

Izaguirre continues to complete more passes, more accurately and maintain possession more effectively than Tierney but the gap is closing. Tierney has gone from 20 less passes per 90m to 11; 5% less accurate passing to 2%; and 9% less effective possession retention to 4%. Clear improvement from Tierney.

It is interesting Tierney is now winning less tackles and completing less interceptions than Izaguirre. Also, Tierney is winning less tackles and interceptions that last season (tackle success dropped from 68% to 56%). The bottom right portion suggests Izaguirre is out performing Tierney in core defensive actions.

Tierney continues to effect more clearances (6.87 to 4.14 per 90m). So far this season they both have 0.36 defensive errors per 90m which is second best only to Lustig. Izaguirre once again commits many more fouls (19 compared to 7, and Izaguirre has played almost 500 less minutes).

In respect to defensive performance, Tierney has perhaps plateaued this season, and Izaguirrre has been more secure in his defending. That being said, there has not been a lot of defending to do, domestically (more on that point below).

Izaguirre Attacking 2016/17

Tierney Attacking 2016/17

Like last season Izaguirre has more possession and is more accurate (top right), and neither poses a significant goal threat (bottom right). Tierney has had 23 shots, 6 on target and 0 goals and Izaguirre 3 shots only.

Izaguirre’s chance creation is down on the previous seasons as is his assisting.

Bottom to middle left is where we see the significant difference. Tierney is behind only Forrest, Roberts and Sinclair in successful dribbles, whilst Izaguirre’s rate has dropped compared to the last 2 seasons. Creatively, Tierney is assisting 0.41 per game (8 assists) – only Griffiths is higher (0.58). He is also creating 0.93 chances per game (18 from 46 attempts). Only Roberts creates more chances (1.23).

2016/17 is characterised by Izaguirre consolidating and strengthening his defensive performances, whilst his attacking output appears to be diminishing. Tierney’s defensive performances have regressed slightly but he is blossoming in as an attacking force.

Finally, I want to consider their respective overall contributions to the hardest games Celtic play – European football. Here are their defensive and attacking performances for all European games over the last 3 seasons.

Izaguirre Defending Europe

Tierney Defending Europe

As you may expect both players must execute more defensive actions in European football, more tackles, intercepts and clearances. Izaguirre’s passing and possession stats remain higher than Tierney’s.

Whilst Tierney makes more errors in Europe than domestically (0.48 per 90m compared to 0.36 this season overall), Izaguirre’s error rate shoots up to 1.17 per 90m. In Europe, you will more likely get punished if you make mistakes, and Izaguirre over the last 3 seasons has been punished at key moments:

1. Out paced and out muscled against Legia Warsaw – 1^st goal kills the tie (1-5 now);
2. 77m vs RB Salzburg – Izaguirre loses possession then rashly fouls. Soriano’s wonder free kick turns 3 points into 1 for Celtic;
3. Sent off against Ajax for stupid 2^nd foul when 2-1 up and end up drawing 2-2;
4. Dropped to bench 4 times for European matches by Deila during 2015/16;
5. Naïve defending against one of the cleverest strikers in the world to kill a game Celtic were staying in v Barcelona 2016/17 – at 0-2 there is no way back.

Izaguirre Attacking Europe

Tierney Attacking Europe

The story of the radars here is that whilst both players have not scored in Europe, Tierney’s creative attempts continue with 0.72 shots per 90m. Whilst Izaguirre is almost non-existent as an attacking threat in European games, assisting 0.09 per 90m and creating almost half the number of chances (0.36 per 90m) as Tierney (0.64 per 90m).

Tierney’s highlights from last season are well captured here. Despite his tender years, he has already developed a signature move – the cut back from near the goal line to create a chance. Cutting the ball back from the by-line was one of the few useful coaching tips I ever received as a boy a long time ago. The benefit is that the defenders are generally moving back towards their own goal, and the cut back forces them to change direction. Whilst attacking players can move forward onto the ball and can more easily anticipate it. It is very difficult to defend. In the case of Tierney, this also highlights his tendency to PASS to make the chance – i.e. the final ball has a targeted objective. Izaguirre tends to CROSS the ball – i.e. play balls into a generally dangerous area with the hope someone gets on the end of it. Domestically, through attrition, assists happen. In Europe, better shaped defences and able defenders allied to a lower number of attempts, renders this less productive. Tierney creates and delivers more assists and chances despite having much less possession and attempting far fewer passes that Izaguirre, because he attempts precision.

Summary

Tierney is 19. Still a teenager and still learning his trade. Already he is demonstrating improvement in his defensive play although Izaguirre still out performs him on many criteria. However, Tierney compensates for his lack of defensive experience with a “safety first” approach, attempting less passes in defensive areas, and often clearing the ball out of danger.

As an attacking force, Izaguirre’s influence is reducing and although domestically he still contributes effectively as an attacking full back, in Europe his contribution as an attacker is marginal. Tierney’s attacking performance compares favourably with the most creative players in the squad in terms of chance creation and assisting goals. Although slightly less productive in Europe due to the quality of the opposition and having less possession, he is still contributing to the attack materially.

Izaguirre is now 30 and with his contract up at the end of the season, will he be prepared to play a support role for the next few years assuming Tierney develops at the rate he is evidencing over the last 2 seasons?

Whatever happens the support have tremendous affection for both players and we have been lucky to have them.