Celtic broke their own 100 year old unbeaten domestic record with a 63rd consecutive positive result in Perth. At the scene of their last defeat 542 days prior, the Champions firstly wore down, then cut apart, a desperately poor St Johnstone.
The Glossary is your friend in times of confusion over terminology and metrics.
Fast Tracked
It is 189 days since Rodgers selected an unchanged line up, last doing so for the visit to Ibrox on 29th April 2017. A similar margin of victory ensued that day. But it was perhaps lessons learned from the previous encounter with St Johnstone that informed his thinking. St Johnstone had become the first team this season to take points off Celtic, and at Celtic Park too. Hibernian and Kilmarnock have since matched this feat. The Perth side set up that day with a high press, and man to man midfield markers, an approach Hibernian adopted successfully in the September clash. Celtic had struggled to get out their own half in the first period and connect with Rogic, Sinclair and Griffiths. A tired Celtic side, with Ntcham in particular being off rhythm, had struggled coming off the draining and emotional 4-3 reverse in Astana days earlier. Gifted the lead in the first half, St Johnstone had hope to cling to and reverted to a 4-4-2 low block in the second half as seen successfully deployed by Kilmarnock last week. A siege developed before McGregor finally found an equaliser.
St Johnstone are an experienced side packed with resilient and hardworking players, but lack pace, and for the moment, confidence. The light blues had not scored since 23rd September, a 5 match winless streak yielding 1 point and a goal difference of 0-8. Rodgers went with pace compared to the Celtic Park match. In comparison, McGregor replaced Rogic as a more direct running “10”; the hard running Armstrong replaced Ntcham; and the more direct Dembele kept his place for the injured Griffiths. Tierney and Forrest provided wide and fast threat, Sinclair again stationed in an inside left position.
The recent 3-4-2-1 deployed against Bayern Munich, and away to Aberdeen, allows Rodgers to get his six fastest players on the pitch in attacking areas (Hayes is possibly the quickest of them all but I would consider him a squad player not a first team regular).
Speed merchant indicated thus
The home side did not press high as they had at Celtic Park. McLean was asked to close down the Celtic back three on his own. Behind him the Saints went man for man aside from Scougall who had an ill-defined role apparently supporting McLean whilst filling in to combat the Celtic right sided threat of Lustig’s occasional incursions.
With Celtic dominating possession (78% – the highest in any game this season), Bitton is a luxury Celtic can afford, being able to pick passes from the back. It is risk/reward. Bitton completed 105 passes, 18 more than anyone else, and completed 12 pack passes – passes that take out at least one opponent. Domestically at least this compensates for the 2 glaring defensive errors and other slack moments. The reward of a stable passing platform from deep outweighs the risk of errors being punished. In Scotland.
Such was the quickness of the Celtic players’ movements, and the accuracy of the passing from the back (92% pass completion overall equalled the season high), that Celtic were able to find players in attacking position despite the man to man coverage. It also reflected the inability of the home side’s players to intercept (only Dundee had managed fewer interceptions than the 15 St Johnstone managed). Only against Linfield (the Northern Irish Albion Rovers) has Sinclair had more possession (54 possession events). Dembele’s 33 possession events is a season high.
Celtic’s set piece pass completion was 93% which is 11% higher than average, and 1% lower than the season high against Heart of Midlothian. Set piece passes include throw ins and corners as well as free kicks. Celtic only had 3 corners, which generally don’t connect, but this very high completion number shows St Johnstone’s inability to even make throw in restarts a pressure situation for the Champions.
St Johnstone’s lack of speed of thought and movement is highlighted by Celtic completing 18 dribbles or take ons, the 2nd most of the season. 16 dribble attempts were thwarted, a season high. Celtic felt running at their slower opponents would be productive: even Bitton, who turns slower than most dairy products, managed 5 successful dribbles from the back. 12 Saints were dribbled past, which would be another season high were it not for Celtic dribbling past 16 opponents in August – at home to St Johnstone.
A consequence of playing man to man is that you sacrifice a solid team shape as players track their opponents as a primary responsibility over maintaining defence of a particular zone. Celtic were, therefore, able to bypass St Johnstone players at regular intervals with ease. 101 packing events (successful passes or dribbles that take out at least one opponents) and a Total Impect score of 773 compares to a season average of 59 and 512 respectively. In simple terms, St Johnstone were easy to pass and run through.
Celtic’s third goal highlighted the dangers to St Johnstone of the break at pace, and of poor execution of man marking.
All Bark and No Bite
A couple of St Johnstone players were particularly fractious, frustrated at the lack of possession and ease at which Celtic were playing through them no doubt the reason. McLean had a habit of connecting with opponents who had just released the ball, whilst ex Celtic kid Wotherspoon was in a particularly foul mood. Eventually booked for persistent infractions, the referee seemingly ignored the several fouls not given for “advantage” to be played. Paton was predictably “robust”, and his sharp edged elbow to Brown’s head one of the more obvious red card offences you will see. Paton comes from behind Brown meaning he can see the ball and the opponent clearly. Often a player’s arm will connect with an opponent’s head as they rise to challenge and arms are outstretched to gain leverage and balance. This wasn’t that. Paton’s arm is bent and tensed and he places the sharp end deliberately and forcibly into Browns head. Coming from behind a blindsided opponent you can win the ball merely by timing your jump better than the unsighted opponent.
What St Johnstone could not do is legitimately challenge their opponents in football terms. They won only 8 tackles outright (i.e. tackle won and possession retained) – the season average for Celtics’ opponents is 16. Overall the home side won only 29 challenges against the season average of 36 and only Cathro’s supine Heart of Midlothian and Partick Thistle won less.
Celtic won possession from 61% of all challenges – only Kilmarnock, who lost 5-0 in the League Cup, had a lower success rate.
Celtic lost 37 challenges overall whilst the average against all opponents is 47.
The first goal was a rerun of the winner Sinclair scored against Partick Thistle on 20th December 2016 albeit that was from a Henderson free kick wide right. But it is also an example of how Boyata was able to bully two defenders to create the block for Sinclair.
Worryingly for the Perth side given current form, it wasn’t just the quality in possession they lacked, but the fight as well.
When Better is Better than More
The language of chance creation and shot success has been revolutionised by the concepts of Expected Goals (xG) and Expected Assists (xA). Clark in the St Johnstone goal was their Man of the Match but he really didn’t have a difficult save to make. He saved 10 shots, a season high against Celtic, although the best save of the match came from Comrie clearing Boyata’s header towards the top corner of the net, out. The xG metric however tells us that Celtic *should” have scored only 1.521 goals based on the location and match situation of the shots. That’s an average of 10.4% per shot of the ball going in. If you take shots from long range, and strike them in the general direction of the goalkeeper, that is not surprising! Despite 28 shots overall and 15 on target, none were Big Chances. Dembele’s goal is not deemed a Big Chance as although he was within the 6 yard box, there was a defender in front of him and the ball arrived across his body at some pace – his skill was exceptional. Solid ‘keeping and poor shot selection and execution prevented what is colloquially know as a “doing”.
xG considers only shots on target. A different take is provided considering xA, which looks at chances created from the passer’s perspective. Based on the chances provided, Celtic *should* have scored 2.742, much closer to the actual 3 Celtic scored (1 being an own goal). Only against Linfield at home has Celtic’s xA been higher. It wasn’t all high quality chance creation though as Celtic had only 1 successful cross whilst 16 failed to find a Hooped shirt.
The away side had possession in the box 31 times. And the 13 shots taken within the box is the 5th best of the season. 26 chances were created to go with the 32 in the home game against the same opponent. In short, Celtic were profligate. And this was a collective failing, as only Gordon, Brown and Hayes of the 14 utilised players, failed to register a shot at goal.
In contrast, St Johnstone’s xG of 0.079 is the lowest by any team that has had at least 1 shot on target (they had 2). They attempted only 2 crosses all match, reflecting the lack of pace and penetration on the flanks.
They completed only 103 open play passes, the lowest domestically all season and 49 incomplete passes is the lowest by ANY side this season. In microcosm, in the 24th minute Wotherspoon displayed great skill to beat Brown then couldn’t complete a simple pass. Overall, they had 237 possession events, which is the lowest amongst Celtic’s Scottish opposition, by 23. By half time both Boyata (58) and Bitton (59) had completed more passes than the whole St Johnstone team (56). With only 61% pass completion success, there were not connecting often.
In short, the home side were bereft, struggling for confidence.
Bhoy of the Match
As always there were notable aspects of most performances – players are rarely (*never*) all “good” or all “bad”.
- Boyata led the Defensive Action Success Rate (DASR) metric with 89%. He won 8 challenges / interceptions, losing only 1. He won possession 6 times.
- Bitton completed 105 passes despite the defensive errors – his Pass Impect of 57 was second only to Lustig on 61. He also completed 5 dribbles and led the team with Dribble Impect of 19.
- Despite only completing 24 passes, of which only 1 was a Pack Pass, Forrest created 4 chances and provided the only successful cross. His xA of 0.231 was 2nd highest. In addition he managed 4 shots inside the box, although only 1 was on target. He managed an overall Celtic Attacking Threat (CAT) Score of 11, the 2nd highest.
There were three overarching performances.
Armstrong did not complete the match but still figured at the top of the leader board across many key indicators. 2 assists stand out and despite not leading on Pass Impect, his game was more about taking a pass and progressing through midfield at pace. The St Johnstone midfield and Alston in particular, could not deal with his drive when breaking from deep.
The captain was clearly motivated to break the Maley team record. Paton and Wotherspoon could easily have been sent off tangling with the combative midfielder. It didn’t distract his focus – 100% passing! From 86 passes completed! 5 of which lead directly to Celtic shots. This was “game face” Brown.
If there were any lingering worries as to whether he is “back” or not, Dembele is surely leaving such doubters behind. He loves playing St Johnstone and their relatively slow back line are appealing for him. Whether receiving deep, providing menace in the box, or creating chances for others, he was the pinnacle of the Celtic attack and Bhoy of the Match.
The next article will give the 63-match unbeaten run the By Numbers treatment – how many games were won in the rain! Kidding (* Not kidding *).