Saturday 20th October marked the 9-month anniversary (a whole football season in elapsed time) since Celtic last scored a goal direct from a corner kick pass. I know this is a bad stat as it includes the summer but I am feeding one of the great preconceptions here!
Since Boyata overshadowed the might of the Brechin City defence in the 56th minute to score in a 5-0 walloping on 20th January 2018, 279 corners have been taken without a goal DIRECT from the corner pass.
But that surely isn’t a problem in itself? Providing the pass into the box leads to a goal eventually. Since Brechin City, 3 goals have been scored in the phase of play subsequent to the corner:
- Dembele vs Greenock Morton, 3rd March 2018
- Forrest vs Alashkert, 10th July 2018
- Boyata vs Hamilton Academical, 26th August 2018.
This is a goal resulting from 1% of corners taken. As I wrote about in Cutting Corners (I hope Celtic get better on corners for the single reason I’m running out of cheesy titles for articles about corners) a goal can be expected from a corner around 2.5% of the time. Not as often as most folk think, I’ll wager.
And whilst we’re about it, a shot resulting from a corner has a lower Expected Goals than is the same shot had been taken in regular play. This is because of the likely number of defenders in the way, and the relative structured readiness of the defence en masse.
Corner Performance Since 2017/18
But, swerving back on course, the overriding point is – YES, Celtic are getting poor returns from corners since January 2018.
Selecting a larger sample to get a better trend, the key numbers over the last two seasons (since start of 2017/18):
Of those 164 chances, 76 came from the corner kick pass and 88 from a second phase of action.
That works out at 6.75 corner per 90m and 2.02 chances per 90m from corners.
Comparing shot performance from corners versus open play shows that accuracy of shots is 10% lower than from open play. And conversion from all shots is 3% lower. This is not a surprise – as I mentioned, getting a shot following a corner usually means navigating a packed opposition box. Once Celtic do get a shot on target from a corner, the conversion rate is the same (1% higher) than from open play.
But the acid test of effectiveness is comparison versus two concepts you should now be familiar with:
- Goals vs Expected Goals
- Goals vs Industry Standard (2.5% of corners result in goals)
Goals vs Expected Goals
Celtic have scored 13 goals from their 547 corners since the start of last season.
If we add up the xG value of all the 164 chances created from corners, the comparison of goals vs xG is as follows:
Nearly 2 goals under performance since July 2017. Not a disaster but disappointingly below average.
Goals vs Industry Standard
Applying the 2.5% of corners result in goals observation to Celtic’s performance:
Again, Celtic have scored nearly 1 less goal from corners that the industry standard would suggest. But on the upside Celtic are creating slightly better-quality chances than “normal”. An extra 1 or 2 goals would likely see Celtic slightly “above average”.
Conclusion
Performances at corners is one of the football fan sacred cows like zonal marking and playing two up front. The reality is Celtic are a bit mediocre at corners, and to be critical, a bit below average since the start of the 2017/18. But not disastrously so.
However, since January 2018, the performance from corners has been woeful with only 1% of corners resulting in goals even though performance in the full period under analysis is slightly below average at worst.
Statistical blip, or systematic issue?
Ideas in the comments section please on how to answer that!
One problem is that out with Griffiths , we have poor delivery, he’s the only player who consistently whips the ball into danger area. On a bright note one of our greatest nights was Beating Barcelona and the first goal was from a majestic corner from Mulgrew, so maybe this more about personnel ? Thoughts
Great article and one that should be brought to the attention of the Celtic coaching staff. It would be interesting to compare with Madrid/Athletico/Barca because almost every corner in attack with them seems to create a chance for a goal/penalty/red card. Why do we never seem to be able to get free to attack the ball without putting it miles over the top? Is everyone focused on a ‘glory’ goal and not just putting it between the sticks where poachers dwell and mayhem happens?
Thank god it’s not just me who’s noticed it! The thing that’s frustrated me about it is the corners are all the same; just pump them into the box and hopefully someone gets on the end of it. No short ones, no knocking it to the front post and getting it back at a better angle, no knocking it tomslmeone on the edge of the box for them to shoot. The most frustrated I got was in the St. Johnstone game in the league cup. Literally every corner was Griffiths pumping it in air, the ball coming down with snow on it, and nothing coming from it. Hopefully we carry on scoring as many as we have done the past few games and I won’t notice it as much now!
I don’t know whether we just notice it in our own team but it’s not just corners, it’s crosses in general. Perhaps other teams are the same but it seems to be a rare occurrence that someone is ever in the end of a cross.
A cross is a very imprecise way to try and set up a chance. Lucky if more than 1 in 10 crosses are successful.
Those stats confirm what we thought: Celtic are dire at corner kicks.
What on earth are the coaching staff doing about it? With the quality of players we have those stats are embarrassing.
I’d say we were a bit “meh” but not disastrous. A couple of goals from corners would soon put Celtic on the right side of the averages.
I would like to see the odd corner fired in amongst all the legs in the box instead of being delivered high into the box. All our big defenders trudge upfield for nothing. Let the defence stay put and get the midfield and forwards to get a tap on the ball from a blast across the area. This takes the advantages away from the keeper as well and increases the chance of an own goal.
Based on the replies you have got. I am not sue that your point has been made fordefully enough.
Correct me if I have misinterpreted too but, are you saying.
Celtic are quite poor at corners, but not markedly worse than most teams.
Corners are very unproductive for most teams.
There are not many advantages to lumping a ball into the mix and hoping for the best.
All teams, including Celtic, might be better served by using the kick to re-start an attack (like Barca used to do) rather than to cross it into an area where the defence has all the advantages.
Have I misunderstood?
You are 90% correct and I accept the criticism my point wasn’t made forcefully enough! You can write the articles from now on!!!!
the 10% is – crossing the ball is fine providing it is to a predefined pattern of movement that has been practised. If you can raise your corner scoring productivity by even 2-3 goals a season that can be worth millions in terms of Euro progression for eg where most qualifiers are tight.
It is the starting position of our ‘big lads’ which is the problem. They line up on the 6 yard line and jostle forward and back on that line, waiting for the ball to drop onto their head.
I’d like to see them all start around the penalty spot and run onto the crossed ball as it reaches the 6 yard line.
This has been driving me nuts for the last few seasons- we should be scoring way more goals from play immediately after a corner.
When was the last time we scored from a corner, and how many corners have we had since?