You might have hoped for a political polemic in these troubling times.
However, it is the left side of Celtic’s defence that exercises me today.
Scottish football tends to be more direct that most. Outside the top two, sides average 76 long balls per 90 minutes. Celtic average 42.
How to beat Celtic?
On limited budgets, more direct play to a target man is probably unsurprising. Quick, creative attacking players being the commodity most likely outside of reach for most SPFL clubs.
What is common, however, is a reasonable degree of organisation and tactical planning. Finding a weakness to overcome such a financial disparity is never easy. Clubs vary their defensive approach in terms of deep blocks versus man to man versus pressing strategies. This usually depends on the personnel they have available.
Attacking Celtic is more difficult. Playing for corners and set plays is easier said than done on minimal field position and possession. However, by getting the ball forward quickly, you can chance to luck on second phase possession, or even winning a free kick on an aerial duel, or long throw leading to further second phase advantage. None of this requires expensive personnel. As a commodity, height is cheaper than pace!
All fairly obvious to you I suspect.
A trend I’ve noticed especially in the last two SPFL games against Livingston and Ross County is to target the left side of Celtic’s defence for this aerial assault.
In the last five matches Greg Taylor has established himself with his longest run of starts since the season began. On the left he is partnered by Starfelt. The Swede’s difficulties under the high ball are well documented. Taylor is, of course, relatively diminutive.
Whoscored has Taylor at 5’ 9” and Starfelt at 6’ 1”. Neither particularly tall by the modern standards.
Whereas Carter-Vickers wins 87% of his aerial duels, that is only 74% for Starfelt.
Amongst full backs, Taylor wins 54% of his aerial duels, compared to Ralston on 73%. Ralston is only an inch taller at 5’ 10”.
We’ll come back to Juranovic.
Livingston
The West Lothian club are admirable in their ability to be competitive on such a limited wage bill. According to Footballleaguefc.com most Livingston players are on around £800 to £1500 basic per week. Scouting for physical attributes into a coherent system can take you a long way however and they very much punch above themselves.
Against Celtic their main “out” ball was long to Nouble (6’ 4”) and mainly in the left side channel of Celtic’s defence.
Here are the respective heat maps from this match comparing the right and left sides of the defence.
Celtic were the away side so read the heat maps from right (defending third) to left (attacking third).
We can see how much more defensive activity was in the left channel for Starfelt and Taylor compared to Carter-Vickers and Ralston.
Celtic dominated that match and were comfortable 3-1 winners but Livingston have already taken 5 points off Celtic this season which they would consider over achievement so would likely try the same again.
Ross County
This match was effectively over after 28 minutes as Celtic were 3 goals to the good, and the Staggies down to 10 men.
However, their approach had mirrored Livingston in terms of the focus of their forward balls. Country started with Jordan White (6’ 4”) as their sole strike. He had notably given Starfelt a torrid time in Dingwall, winning many headers as well as inflicting a sore face on the Swede that so unsettled him, he was sent off for two tallow cards.
As Celtic were the home side, the heat maps need to be read from left (defending third) to right (attacking third)!
We see the same pattern. Taylor and Starfelt had a reasonable amount of defending to do in Celtic’s left sided defensive quadrant. Juranovic and Carter-Vickers, hardly any.
Again, very little came from this in such a one-sided match, but it is an areas teams will continue to probe.
Impacts
What I am starting to see is that Starfelt is being involved on more aerial duels than Carter-Vickers. At the moment it is 6.1 duels per 90m for the American and 5.59 for the Swede but I expect this differential to grow over the end of the season.
What is also interesting is that Juranovic, who is probably the first choice right back, has the worst aerial duel success of all – 32%!
I suspect though it is Starfelt in particular the opposition are targeting.
Juranovic has quick recovery speed whilst Taylor can be caught out of position when a counter attack is on as he does not possess the raw recovery pace of the Croatian.
Hence this will likely continue to be a perceived weakness that teams will look to exploit.
Gum shields may be in order for Celtic’s left sided defence!
Good analysis as always, but I would have thought that Taylor in particular is the one being targeted, or maybe both, as Taylor although much improved in the league, has been responsible for goals lost in Europe.
Thanks James
I think it is a combination of weaknesses. Taylor is smaller, and his recovery pace, or lack of, means he can be caught upfield so there is sometimes a gap in that channel. Starfelt is really average in the air, tends to over-reach and win balls he cannot, and can often get dragged under the ball by the striker. A toxic combination at times!
Thx for your reply, love your site , and over and above the actual stats, your opinion and clear interpretation of them.
As ever, really interesting analysis. Maye I’m the only one who’s unclear, but do the heat maps reflect player possession, player defensive actions, or general positioning?
Interesting to see that Starfelt wins less than three-quarters of his aerial duels. My subjective impression is that one of his very few virtues is that he wins headers – clearly that doesn’t seem to be the case. You’d have to ask in that case what exactly he brings to the team. I know his pass completion rate is high but these generally take the form of very poor passbacks to the keeper. The only other attribute I can see is that he brings the ball out past pressing attackers fairly well. How do Welsh’s aerial duels compare?
Hi Martin
Welsh is only 78% in aerial duel wins – he is a similarly average height.
Your overall summary of Starfelt matches my own – being blunt – what are you good for?!
The heatmaps indicate where actions occurred with the darker colour indicating more actions by that player. An action can be anything from a pass to a tackle etc.
Bit unfair on Starfelt, considering he is a right sided defender playing out of position, thought you would have noticed he tries to use his right foot to pass every time????
I can only judge him on his performances
When the evidence changes I’ll change my opinion
Last 2 seasons he played the middle centre back in a 3 so I agree with you but that seems an odd fit
It also makes sense. The middle of a 3 is usually the best defender who is otherwise limited. Strange recruitment
When he turns back towards his own goal, he predominantly uses his favoured right foot to pass back, and he’s still consistently awful.
Sorry, bit trigger happy with the ‘submit’ button – meant to add that despite the above, I agree with your assessment it’s a little unfair to judge him conclusively while playing out of position!