Derby Defeat – Initial Hope Trumped

The good news is Celtic’s performance levels were much improved on the last three derbies. The bad news was a loss and the almost certain surrender of the ten in a row.

The points raised here are expanded on the in the latest edition of The Huddle Breakdown. Please subscribe / watch / listen and share.

Hope in the Gloom

To Lennon’s credit he went with the diamond shape midfield that has transformed performance levels since the Lille Europa League clash (bafflingly reverted away from for the Scottish Cup Final).

The game turned in many ways on a 62-minute sending off for Bitton but, in truth, early dominance for Celtic had started to dissipate long before.

Some basic stats from the game:

Despite the early dominance, the xG for the match was close and Celtic mustered only 3 shots on target. The notion Allan McGregor pulled off a world class performance was so much media fluff as one exceptional save was supplemented with more routine fare. None of the chances were “Big” ones, with Griffiths 36^th minute strike wide from a central position arguably the best of them. Effective pressing did not lead to great quality chances.

Initially, this more solid centrally, and having the industrious Christie and McGregor as proper “8”s in front of a mobile and quick “6” in Soro hassled The Rangers into turnovers and pressure with Celtic winning the bulk of challenges throughout.

But, from the off, the home side seemed content to take as long as possible over restarts. A risk averse approach was further confirmed in that neither Tavernier and Barisic seemed inclined to overlap and try and push Celtic’s (ostensibly) wing backs, back. Tavernier still provided 2 chances but Barisic was largely redundant as an attacking threat.

Contributing Factors

What turned this into a defeat?

I’d argue that the game was drifting into a 50/50 before the sending off. And we will come to changes later. Apart from a Bitton header from a corner and a blocked Edouard shot, Celtic struggled to create from around 36 minutes out.

One of the weaknesses of the diamond or perhaps the personnel deployed had been hinted at against Dundee United the week before. Then, two passes took out the whole Celtic team allowing McNulty a run at goal. Jullien’s subsequent goal line save and injury perhaps acts as a watershed moment for the season but highlighted that long balls behind the full backs, both prone to over reaching in attack, led to this calamity.

Similarly, despite the excessive time it took for The Rangers to restart after recovering the ball from Celtic, the back line was not yet organised and a long ball played behind Laxalt found Bitton exposed, Ajer nowhere in terms of support and the other full back similarly misaligned. I have highlighted Bitton’s tendency to lack concentration in big games and failure to sense danger that comes with natural defensive instincts. Having been turned by Morelos he panicked and hauled him down with a rugby tackle. Any chance Morelos may have had as a result would probably have been of the poor xG variety given his angle, but Madden had his opening to get the red card out as quickly as he could before anyone could change his mind.

Misfortune struck shortly after when a corner hit McGregor and bounced in. Some questioned Barkas, because heh, it’s what we do right? But that renowned pundit Kris Boyd actually called it correctly at the time. Barkas responded to Edouard moving off the post and felt he had to step to cover the near post as that is where the ball was entering. Of course, it bounced to the back post. Basic set piece organisation remains an issue.

After that, in a game Celtic had to win, there were 2 shots from 30 yard plus range. Another reoccurring issue for Celtic is the incoherent game management that followed. Replacing a diminishingly effective striker (Griffiths) for a replacement centre back (Duffy) made some sort of sense. But then to strip out all 4 of the diamond and replace with inappropriate replacements into goodness-knows-what shape yielded next to no chances to draw level.

There is a theme here of changes left too late then lacking coherence.

Player Performance

Bitton had been my man of the match up to the sending off. He won 9 of 10 challenges and recovered the ball 18 times whilst winning back possession 4 times. With 96% passing he kept the ball moving effectively. None of this alters the view that he is an excellent centre back at home to Ross County but proven over 4 years now suspect against better opposition.

Soro had a disappointing game by his recent high standards. The nerves may have affected him and by 20 minutes he had completed 1 pass. Madden made a great show of totting up his fouls and ensuring he knew he was under pressure. His worst foul (the 5^th) brought a yellow card and eventually he was replaced by Brown. He will learn.

Edouard struggled to get into the game and completed 6 passes in 90 minutes. Yet despite this he still contrived to create 3 chances and have 3 shots for a team leading Expected Scoring Contribution of 0.895. He is another that will thrive with the freedom the diamond provides. The wish was he would drift left and run at Goldson more often. But with Tavernier rarely leaving his station there were limited opportunities.

Laxalt is a living enigma. His distribution is one of the worst I have ever seen and he completed just 19 of 37 passes from open play. Despite pinging in 6 crosses not one found the target and he gave up possession 8 times in the final third for 0 xA. But defensively he was successful with 14 of 23 challenges/interceptions and won back possession a team leading 11 times. He also led the team in receiving 8 Pack Passes – ie being open to receive a forward pass. Upon receipt if he is coached to simply pass it onto one of the creative talents then our lives will all be the richer.

Bhoy of the Match was one again Ajer. He had one major defensive error when trying to run out of his own box and losing possession, and was collectively part of an over stretched defence at the sending off. He had the highest DASR (81%) completed most passes (51) and won possession back 6 times. Outside of the stats he seemed to take on a leadership role which is encouraging.

Summary

The Rangers will be laughing themselves to sleep whilst Celtic sun themselves in Dubai. A game they set out not to lose fell into their laps by doing very little else than staying in shape. Celtic’s familiar failings of games tapering away with no changes, being exposed in the full back and central defence areas, and of chronic game management are likely with us for the season.

For all that, this was a massive improvement on the last three derbies. The diamond formation has stopped much of the bleeding defensively and offers hope of attacking promise. This must be the preferred system going forward.