A cliché often applied to Derby matches is “form goes out the window”.
Except of course it doesn’t (in my head that comes out like Abbey Clancy to Peter Crouch in the Paddy Power advert – other bookmakers are available).
Form is crucial in these matches. See Celtic’s numerous hammerings in the Rodgers era, and Gerrard’s success against a dysfunctional Celtic over the last 18 months.
The SPFL is, of course, the benchmark. Matches since the resumption after the break should also be instructive since Van Bronckhorst has now bedded in albeit the player pool did not much change. Postecoglou has also had a two-week window on the training ground.
Conveniently, this also covers 10 matches which is a significant enough sample.
Results
All that matters, innit?
Celtic have achieved a fine set of results since the January break. Apart from a draw against a hyper defensive Hibernian at Easter Road, it has been wins all the way.
Celtic have picked up 94% of available points, and 87% away.
The Rangers have picked up 67% of points but 87% at home.
The goal difference has moved 13 goals in Celtic’s favour over this period as a deficit in the standings has turned into a 3-point lead and a 14-goal advantage, effectively a 4-point lead.
In terms of “form” as a Sky Sports pundit might understand it, the direction is clear – Celtic are flying!
Of course, you know better. So, let’s dig into the underlying performance numbers.
Performance Data
As @jucojames explained on the latest Huddle Breakdown (subscriptions welcome – we are nearly at 5k), much of the recent performance data is very similar despite Celtic’s much better results.
James is right (as he usually is) to point out the many similarities in underlying performance between the two teams.
Let’s see to what extent:
Attacking Performances
Very little between the sides since January as regards shot and xG data.
Celtic’s xG per game IS higher, by 0.24 per game.
Possession Performance
Celtic are a little more ball-hungry and complete significantly more passes (nearly 100 more per game).
Otherwise, both complete roughly the same number of long passes and crosses.
Celtic do create 1 more Big Chance per 90m, however.
Defensive Performance
Some differences starting to appear.
McGregor makes more than double the saves Hart has to.
Celtic’s xG against is only 0.66 compared to 0.92 for The Rangers who also give up more Big Chances.
Surprisingly, Celtic only give up 0.06 more xG from Set Plays than their rivals but significantly less from Open Play.
Game and Goal Time
Another difference noticeable from the last Derby, is Celtic’s tendency to start the game well whilst all season The Rangers have not.
The Blues have conceded 6 out of 24 goals in the first 10 minutes of games. Eight times they have had to come back from losing positions to draw or win. Their First Half xG is 1.15 but Second Half is 1.52.
The opposite is true for Celtic. Only once have they had to come back from a losing position to get a point. 29 of their 69 goals have come in the opening 30 minutes and 19 in the opening 20. Celtic’s xG in First Halves is 1.62, dropping to 1.15 in the Second. But remember, Celtic have only conceded 1 goal in the last 20 minutes of matches in the SPFL and that was the first game of the season.
Summary
The underlying differences in performance data are not as pronounced as the disparity in points, when assessing the two sides since January.
Celtic have a slight edge in attacking performance data but a more noticeable advantage in defensive performances. You won’t read that in the SMSM.
An additional variance factor is the speed Celtic start games compared to how slowly The Rangers seem to. Additionally, Celtic are masters at closing out games with minimal threat.
With a full bench and a fit squad, The Rangers will have to be on top form to disrupt this Celtic side.