One of the many insights xG gives us is that great goal scorers are defined by two key attributes. They take a lot of shots from good positions. The lack of deviation over time from xG also shows us that the concept of “finishing” is a bit of a myth. Cristiano Ronaldo is the most glaring example of this. He has virtually never scored more goals than his xG would suggest but clearly scores a huge number of goals. Why? Because his physical and mental attributes get him into great positions from which to shoot. And he has high quality teammates to provide chances. Nothing to do with “finishing”.
We can assess both aspects of that. By taking the average xG of each shot, this tells us the average shot quality – is the player taking shots from good positions?
Shots per 90m tells us about volume of shots – if you don’t shoot you don’t score. Unless you are shooting from stupid positions (far out, wide, with the whole defence in front of you etc). Now what is the French translation for that? I won’t ask Sky.
Celtic Player’s Average xG / Shot and Shot Volume
It is not surprising that Celtic’s goal king Edouard is the sole tenant in the quadrant of virtue. He takes more shots that any other player and his xG per shot is behind only Sinclair and Elyounoussi.
Of course Edouard is an all round forward and as I showed in Elite Edouard, his contribution to chance creation and shot taking makes him a more holistic threat than Dembele was. He still has scope to become a better goal scorer – his deep and creative play comes at the cost of a lower shot volume than an out and out scorer.
When Griffiths scored 40 goals, he averaged 6.16 shots per 90m compared to 3.95 from Edouard this season.
Sinclair’s is a small sample but increasingly under Rodgers he was taking up central positions close to goal to get shots off. Elyounoussi looks like a good replacement for the Englishman – when fit.
McGregor scored a fantastic goal against Motherwell (from inside the box and central – thumbs aloft!) but in general he is taking low quality shots and not very often. As he plays a deeper role these days that is perhaps understandable. Rogic has a similar profile which for a 10 is perhaps not optimal.
Forrest and Christie are getting closest to Edouard and it is not surprise therefore that they are 2nd and 3rd in the actual goals chart (real goals – remember them??).
Ntcham has always attracted my wrath regarding shot selection. There was a moment against Ross County recently that he shot from well outside the box, with his weaker left foot, following a corner meaning the whole Ross County team was between him and the goal. It is pointless to shoot from that scenario. It simply and cheaply loses possession. He takes the most shots of any midfielder (3.58 per 90m) but has the lowest xG per shot at a measly 0.058 xG per shot.
Conclusion
This view of goalscoring effectiveness is another by which Edouard shines. However, he has room for improvement and we can hope for a greater volume of shots from him.
Elyounoussi is definitely promising having the highest xG per shot in the squad.
The coaching opportunities for Ntcham (and Johnston), should be obvious.
Really pleased to see this, actually, as it confirms my ‘eyeball’ opinion of Ntcham – I think his shot selection is among the worst I’ve ever seen in a CM, and it’s the main reason why I can’t bring myself to join the bandwagon of praise for him. The opportunity cost of his poor shooting shouldn’t be underestimated.
The above graph further highlights the ridiculous nature of Sinclair’s final months at the club. The fact that Hayes, Johnston and Morgan were getting game time ahead of Sinclair points to either a fall out between player and manager or, and I believe more likely, a diktat from above that Sinclair was to be sidelined in order to force him out and off the wage bill. While it has not detrimented us in the grand scheme of things, it was a ridiculous decision and sours the relationship with a great servant in the treble treble years.
Another highlight from the graph is that Shved has to be deserving of a chance. He cannot be any worse than Hayes, Morgan or Johnston and yet, despite their relatively poor quality, they have/were all afforded an opportunity to stake their claim. Let’s afford Shved the same chance!
I recognise that Hayes has played a lot of games as a wing back or full back which may distort the data for him; however, I think others in the squad are more deserving of an opportunity.
Excellent again and all the more galling if we sell Eddy in the summer. I’ve read this twice now and I’m not sure I agree with your debunking the finishing myth. Klimala had a more than 50/50 chance yesterday and hit the keep. Kennedy says that on another day he scores yet without applauding him for his movement, which he is suppossed to do, I would rather he just scores. Bayo made the wrong choice twice before he scored but his movement for his goal shows he can make the right choice. All strikers miss (as oppossed to good defensive work) however natural, or instinctive,or better coached or more confident strikers finish more often. Shankland, albeit in a lower league, seems to have this as does say Billy Sharp and indeed Griffiths. Elite strikers such as Lewandowski, Mueller, Ronaldo, Aguero, Immobile and even Vardy work extremely hard to get into those positions and combined with their instinct, experience and intelligence keep scoring. In his early days I though Eddy didn’t work hard enough, dropped deep (wrong coaching) and missed chances however, according to one Motherwell defender, you just cant get near enough either to mark or to kick him. This, combined with his refusal to panic in the killing zone, I think, shows he is a different style of finisher. The coaching team at Celtic deserve every credit for combining his natural talent with an increased awareness and intelligence around the whole game in making him what he is now.
I’m ordinarily not concerned with anything Sevco related, but I would be intrigued to know which quadrant Morelos finds himself in and, more generally, how he compares to Eddy.
I would assume the bottom right quadrant. Lots of shots and low quality. I would also assume that a more full consideration would highlight his overall play is significantly weaker than Eddy’s, notwithstanding his goal contribution.
CR7 has outstanding ability, but he’s not an exceptional footballer. He’s just very, very good. When he was injured during the 2016 Euros, Quaresma was able to take his place with very little detriment to the side.
On the other hand, Messi is actually exceptional. Barcelona have no like-for-like replacement. Messi outperforms xG almost every season.
https://understat.com/player/2097
Of course, everything about Messi is exceptional.
Kane is a more modestly gifted player with an exceptional talent for finishing. He has outperformed xG every season.
https://understat.com/player/647
I’d love to see the numbers for players like Lineker and Gerd Muller.
It seems that Griff regularly outscores xG.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/sport/18294310.celtic-striker-leigh-griffiths-lethal-ever/
Yeah dump the Pink Boots Tall Eddy has hardly scored any goals with them on yeah young man switch back to the black boots. As for lastnights performance against physical Livingston before we even start to anlyse
last night’s match @ the Speghetti Ground yeah our performance was like Speghetti all over the place with sometime our Defence In Disarray as I’ve mentioned before on here we really need to look @ strengthening our Defence we will not even mention the Fiasco a week ago today (27/2/20) however it’s now becoming blatantly obvious that this glaring ongoing problem needs to be addressed asap this said matter is a no brainer as for the playing surface/pitch that has hardly any bounce to it which Physical Livingston used to their own advantage the bottom line here is we need to be better prepared in playing on that type of surface after all its not just Livingston who use that type of playing surface there is also Kilmarnock & Hamilton as well in the SPL who play on that type of set-up so we need to adapt & is our plastic pitch @ Lennoxtown being used or is that pitch just their for show? Also the players boots/footware needs to change accordingly in other words suitable footwear & also our Tactics & Approach needs to change as well for example I would suggest we switch to a 4-4-2 Formation as apposed too a 4-2-3-1 which is useless on that pitch (Livingston) forget about 3-5-2 we will leave the 3-5-2 formation for another day its all about Horses For Courses as regards to playing Livingston @ there own Ground Wee Lenny is right Livingston are a different proposition when you play them @ there own Ground in other words difficult to beet however if prepare properly for those types of matches then we will be ready for that type of hurdle when it comes around so as mentioned with the correct footwear & formation a 4-4-2 approach & up the Tempo in the passage of our Play & by being more Direct instead of too much Side To Side & not giving the ball away too easly & being obvious with our passing in other words the right decision making in passing & less of the high balls into the 18 yard box & more of getting the ball down on the deck & better movement off the ball will surely produce a better positive outcome when having to deal with the said type of future challenges that lays ahead for us anyway we digress on this matter for the time being & its certainly constructive food for thought later’s Folks & Come-On-The-Bhoys – & – Get-It-In-There. Jim. 🙂 🙂