As the window hopefully closes without any major outgoings, we should pause and reflect on the progress of Edouard.
Scouts shouldn’t read this article. You’ll hate it.
Lonesome Eddy
For one and a half seasons he has carried the burden of being the Celtic point of attack almost single handed. Last season in January Rodgers embarked on a flexi-forward strategy involving the loan deals for Burke and Weah. This season has seen the gradual reintroduction of Griffiths. But for the most part, the young French striker has been on his lonesome.
Just turned 22, he is 6 months younger than Dembele was when he went to Olympique Lyonnaise. He has already scored 37 goals for the French club, passed the 100 mark for his career, and been rumoured to be a £80m+ target for major English sides. There is no doubt Dembele is the type of striker way beyond Celtic’s means to buy, and that they should continue to search for players younger of equal potential. Easier said than done.
Edouard, let’s not forget, is Celtic’s record signing at £9m but the try before you buy policy meant the risk was mitigated.
54 goals with 20 already this season suggest this was a wise investment.
Just how good can he get?
The Dembele Benchmark
The chart below bench mark’s Dembele in the 17/18 season as I don’t have xG data for 16/17 when he scored 32 goals. In 18/19 he only played 364 minutes.
Numbers per 90m
Important to note: Dembele 17/18 is roughly the same age as Edouard 19/20 – around their 22nd birthday.
Edouard is steadily and perceptibly improving when measured by Expected Goals and Expected Assists. Remember: xG and xA are way more predictive of future performance than real goals and assists.
Last season, aged 21, Edouard had already matched Dembele’s 17/18 numbers. This season, he is on another level passing the bench mark 0.4 xA (very few players achieve this). His expected scoring contribution is now 1.074 per 90m.
Note also, this data does NOT INCLUDE the recent brace versus Ross County!
Conclusion
Edouard looks to be surpassing Dembele’s level when the ex-Fulham man left for a hefty (and now seemingly undervalued) fee. He looks to be heading into elite striker territory.
Enjoy him while it lasts.
Yeah that chart backs up I think what we all feel. Edouard is a consumate and calm finisher and also sets up chances for others with quick accurate ground passes. The boy is literally priceless for us and when the vultures swoop in June, we should be looking at 40m plus the sell on. The team is transformed when he plays (no better illustrated than by his recent substitute appearance)
It would be interesting to see a comparison to MD’s 16/17 season as that was the season when he was most prolific and upon which his reputation was built.
Eddy will be our first £30m+ player I’d wager. Hopefully rumours that Klimala is his replacement are well wide of the mark.
Unfortunately I don’t have the xG data for Dembele 16/17 either wise would have included
I had a good faith debate on Twitter with Christian from Modern Fitba/90 Minute Cynic about the quality of Edouard’s finishing and my characterization in an earlier piece of him being “only” good at this point. As Alan covered, his creativity via passing is elite for a striker. I still stand by my characterization and think, as Alan has done in this excellent piece, Dembele is a good comp.
Edouard’s xG per shot the past two seasons (I limit calculations to exclude club friendlies and all international games) are around .14, versus .191 and .163 for Dembele in his two full seasons at Celtic. Edouard’s conversion % is 16.8% this season and was 17.8% last season, versus 20% and 15.7% for Dembele’s two. In addition, I calculated the conversion % for the top scoring forwards for the last 32 teams in Europa Leauge this season and the average is about 21% – Edouard is nearly a full standard deviation below that rate.
Long term, conversion % of about 20% is very good but normal variability for a good finisher would include extended stretches of mid or even high 20% range. For example, Dembele this season is currently at 28.1% for the season after having posted 20% over a full season at Celtic. We simply have not seen that upside out of Edouard….yet.
I view this optimistically – meaning that as incredible of a player as he is already, whether through variability/sequencing or improvement/development, he very likely could have an extended stretch of greater efficiency ahead, where his xG per shot is high teens or close to .20, and his conversion rate is 25%+. I think it is likely and I hope it comes at Celtic, but the fact is his finishing has not been as clinical as Dembele’s or top performing Europa Leauge level forwards . We can dare to dream! Given his talent level, would it really be a surprise if he posted a full season of 40+ goals at Celtic?
Dembele is a true No 9 as is Griffiths for that matter.
Édouard isn’t.
He’s a totally different type of forward with a different skill set.
The other two thrive playing off the shoulder and are natural predators whereas Édouard is a more creative type comfortable operating a bit deeper and running at a line of defence.
He’s nowhere near the finished article as regards an out and out striker and doesn’t make the runs Dembele and Griffiths did and does as a natural in the box.
Yes he’s had to lead the line as a lone striker in the absence of Griffiths or any other viable backup and whilst he’s done a decent job at such a young age his goal returns have not been that spectacular.
If you cast your mind back to the Season Griffiths bagged 40 Goals in a Season he was also in a similar position regards back up.
No doubting he will become a sought after commodity when he leaves Celtic but I’d be surprised if he manages to out gun Dembele or Griffiths for that matter in a goal to game ratio before he does.
I think he’s best suited to the role of Supporting Striker in a pairing and the recent performances WITH Griffiths would seem to back this up.
Out of the 3 however he’d be the last I’d want to lead the line as a 9.
Good discussion, Alan.
I’d be keen to see a comparison of the average xG value of the goals each player scores; in other words, aside who scores the most goals, and who ought* to score the most goals, what is the relative difficulty of chances converted? There is an inference to be drawn from G/xG in terms of the efficiency of the striker, but in this context I’m interested in the ability of the striker.
One other related curio; as I understand it, xG is assessed from the position on the pitch from which the player strikes. My sense is that there may be some value in assessing xG from the position on the pitch of the player at the point he receives the ball.
Thanks for maintaining your energy and enthusiasm for this site. The effort is warmly appreciated across the Celticverse.
Tony I capture the average xG value of each shot – ie who is taking the shots with the best chance of success. Ntcham will be near the bottom of that league!
Ability / efficiency? I think you are hinting at the potentially nebulous concept of “finishing ” ability. One of the things xG has taught us is that all strikers will revert to the mean re their xG vs their actual G. Arguably the most efficient striker of the generation, Cristiano Ronaldo, nearly always underperforms his xG. That doesn’t mean he is a bad finisher merely that all top strikers finish roughly to the same level versus their xG. Huge disparities in “finishing” are a myth. Why Ronaldo scores MORE goals is due to observable and measureable factors such as his speed, anticipation and position and strength. There is one exception to this rule – yes Messi. He consistently scores more goals than he should. He is truly a genius.
It is ability therefore, not vague notions of finishing efficiency.
You raise an interesting point, how much better did the striker make the chance on receiving the ball than from where he received it? I’ll see if anyone captures this as that “added value” is interesting.
thanks for the kind words