The stock of Elyounoussi continues to rise within the Celtic support on the back of a run of 6 goals in 5 matches, and a sparky centre forward performance in the famous Lazio triumph.
I will declare I have been hot and cold on the Norwegian. My personal bias tends to be against players I perceive give the ball away carelessly or make bad decisions consistently.
So, I have been anticipating him reaching reasonable sample data size with some interest.
For this analysis I am going to use two comparators. Firstly Forrest. He is a player widely regarded as playing the most productive football of his career, and he plays a similar role in the team albeit on the right flank. Secondly, I will take Sinclair’s data from 2018/19. After all, he is the player Elyounoussi has effectively replaced.
The Norwegian Stokes?
Let me initially deal with my own confirmation bias.
Elyounoussi does indeed complete less passes per 90m than the other two (25.27) and less accurately (71% – Sinclair is 85% and Forrest 81%).
So, there is something in my perception. But, of course, creative players who put risk into their passes will be less accurate. Indeed, Elyounoussi’s assist to Forrest for the opening goal against Lazio was a highly improbably pass but ultimately hugely rewarding. As I will show you, that assist and the actions leading up to it, perfectly encapsulate the player’s style.
Elyounoussi’s assist rate is a fraction better than the others:
Elyounoussi 0.54 assists per 90m
Forrest 0.52 assists per 90m
Sinclair 0.21 assists per 90m
However, his Expected Assist rate lags behind what he is achieving, as does Forrest’s. Forrest is expected 0.39 assists per 90m and Elyounoussi 0.331. Sinclair also overperformed but to lesser degree (0.174 per 90m).
The Norwegian lags behind Forrest in chances created, managing 1.79 per 90m whilst the Scot creates 2.15. Sinclair’s creativity at 1.29 is lower still.
None of this is to bash his efforts and I would encourage you to see this through the lens of appreciating the wonderful form Forrest is in. Elyounoussi is not far behind but because he cost Southampton £16m and Forrest was a Celtic kid, there may be some underappreciation of what Celtic already have!
Goals
There is little doubt Elyounoussi has increased Celtic’s goal threat.
With 0.63 goals per 90m he is averaging more than a goal every other game. Forrest, amidst the scoring form of his life is maintaining a superb 0.47 per 90m average for a winger. Sinclair managed 0.34 last season which is perfectly respectable if not downright good.
I will caution that Elyounoussi may be in the middle of a “hot streak”. Which is to say, his expected goals numbers don’t quite live up to his actual productivity. Recall his first Celtic goal against Cluj deflected into the corner. Not a repeatable strategy.
Forrest is perfectly hitting his xG value of 0.47. That is to say it is reasonable to suggest he may continue to score at the current rate if he continues to get the same type of chances.
Elyounoussi is exceeding his xG value of 0.528. But that is a very high xG for wide attacker! So, whilst he may see a regression is scoring, it won’t be by much. One note of caution though. Elyounoussi is scoring from 70% of his shots on target – that is highly unlikely to be sustainable. Forrest’s 33% is a more “normal” rate.
Elyounoussi is posting high xG numbers despite having less touches in the opposition box than the other two (4.64 – Forrest is 6.19). And despite taking less shots (Elyounoussi 2.59 per 90m; Sinclair 2.68; Forrest 3.09) and being the least accurate (only 34% of his shots hit the target whilst the other two manage 46%).
Finally, Sinclair had an xG of 0.517 last season – had he actually scored at that rate would we even have Elyounoussi? Which is kind of why xG is important and makes it more of a mystery why the Englishman hasn’t featured more.
Scoring Contribution
All this means that Elyounoussi is contributing 1.16 goals and assists per 90m. Striker numbers. But hearteningly, his xSC of 0.859 is on a par with Forrest’s 0.861. With Sinclair posting 0.69 xSC per 90 last season, it is clear that the current wing attackers are the most likely to be the most productive.
Ok, What Else?
There is one more striking (pardon the pun) statistical indicator Elyounoussi is posting.
Defensive Action Success Rate. This is the metric I primarily judge centre backs on. It is proving to be a reliable indicator of defensive quality (Van Dijk scored 84% and this hasn’t been bettered).
Forrest (22%) and Sinclair (26%) have the numbers you’d expect from attacking wingers. They generally lose challenges as opposed to winning them.
Our erstwhile Southampton reject is, meanwhile, scoring 41% by this metric. Quite simply I have rarely seen such a number for an attacking player (unless they are called Christie).
The Norwegian is a grafter. In microcosm, his effort to dispossess Milinkovic-Savic before setting up the Forrest goal illustrates his desire, speed and work rate.
Summary
The data serves to suggest Lennon is right to have Forrest and Elyounoussi as his first choice attacking width. At the same time, completely discarding Sinclair makes little sense.
Whilst the Norwegian is shiny and new (and expensive), we need to appreciate that by keeping up with Forrest, it should highlight just how productive our home-grown hero is.
Finally, Elyounoussi brings a work ethic and desire to the team in keeping with the more “all action” style Lennon favours. In short, it’s great (and thoughtful) recruitment.
Let’s enjoy him whilst we can.
SteveNaive says
Good balanced analysis on Mo so far. Hope his injury heals for this next run of games. Any chance Shved ?
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Shved – not enough data ?
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Shved – not enough data ?
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Shved – not enough data ?
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Shved – not enough data ?
Duncan says
Good stuff as always Alan and as always there are possibly a few factors that data doesn’t or won’t show up that have decided the fate of Sinclair at Celtic under Lennon.
The first point is something that I have been critical of over the past 18 months or so regarding Sinclair and his reluctance to take men on?
In his first Season he was electric and full of confidence running at defenders and turning them with his pace.
This created an environment for him that enabled him to become a key element in our attack.
His second Season he seemed to lose either interest or the ability to skin men out wide often stopping and turning back to play the safe pass back or inside to McGregor or Brown.
This has something to do with his successful pass rate as the simple back pass seldom goes wrong or gets cut out.
Both Forrest and Elyounoussi play more on the front foot and are quite happy taking men on or playing the more difficult passes into or around the box and as a result defenders will occasionally cut them out or do enough to block them.
I think Lenny looks at Sinclair as being too negative now for how we want to play?
Hence why he will favour Johnston as the long term solution who again is another wide man who loves to take men on .
Under Rodgers it wasn’t an issue as his primary objective was ball retention and gradual build up play.
I like Sinclair he’s contribution has been excellent but like Commons before him I don’t think he’s capable now of adapting his game to the new approach and ultimately will move on.
On Elyounoussi?
If media speculation is to be believed then £10m for him would be money well spent as he is DEFINITELY what we require as a wide man.
With him and Forrest on either flank we have great balance going forward and able to switch play without detriment to our effectiveness as an attack minded side.
SteveNaive says
I meant any chance of Shved making the bench to come on or outright starting now that Mo is injured and Jamsie has been with Scotland. Fast penetrating football from the start against Livi.
Iain in Alberta says
I think there is more chance of Johnston starting and Shved coming on for him in the last 30 mins or so. Forrest then moving to the left and Shved playing on the right. Or something like that.
Great site and look forward to Johnston being compared. Mo’s numbers are very high and most good forwards go through streaks of gold, which he seems to be on. Hope he can get fit again soon.
Jim says
If young Elyounoussi can get back to the same performance level he was
showing @ begining of this Season then he is useful to have in the Team
however if Southampton are looking for 25 Million pounds for Foster
then they will probably be looking for more for young Elyounoussi
So this is why its important that Celtic get the finger out so to speak
& start looking for more additions to our squad now I know we need
to off load some duds & fuds & surplus to requirements however we
need to strengthen our squad as well & keep the other players on
their toes so to speak for first team places as for the enigma longest
serving player young James Forrest he needs to work on his choice
of play decisions on the pitch for example when to pass & when to
shoot his decision making sometimes can be poor (poor use of the ball)
In my opinion when Brendan Rodgers was @ the helm he knew how
to get the best out of James Forrest so Lenny “Motivation Here” is
the Key.
celticbynumbers@btinternet.com says
Welcome Jim and thanks for all your comments!
Jim says
I would not play Mikey Johnston against Sevco again, he is useless against
them a waist of space
Wee Marion Shved has not been given a chance this Season he has
hardly been on the bench & when he has been on the bench which
is on very few occassions he has not been utilized
I seen said player playing in a CL Qualifier earlier this Season away
from home (CP) & he scored a good goal after coming off the
substitute bench so fairs fair he should get a run out to see what
he can bring to the table (Team Play) so to speak