On this week’s Huddle Breakdown, @jucojames explained that Celtic have given up more than two xG against in a string of matches against top class opposition over the last season and a bit.
Matches away in AZ Alkmaar, in the Europa League against Real Betis and Bayer 04 Leverkusen, plus this seasons Champions League matches against Real Madrid (Statsbomb) and RB Leipzig have all seen the opponent break the two expected goals mark.
In those seven matches Celtic have conceded 21 goals in total and won once, at home to Real Betis.
I wanted to test this hypothesis further by looking at Champions League matches where at least one of the sides has greater than two xG.
Champion’s League Group Stages 22/23
Using FotMob (which did not have Real Madrid at plus two xG versus Celtic), here are the matches that fit the criteria:
There have been 26 instances in 48 matches of teams achieving over two xG in a single game.
Two of those sides lost despite achieving this benchmark – Barcelona in Munich and Maccabi Haifa in Turin to Juventus.
Out of 24 matches, being on the end of plus two xG resulted in a win on only three occasions.
Athletico Madrid left Porto with a 2-1 victory despite a 1.27 xG difference against.
And to show football has a sense of humour, Athletico Madrid had a 0.86 positive xG difference at home to Club Brugge but lost 0-2.
In a “super club” clash, Barcelona lost 0-2 in Munich despite a 0.32 xG difference.
But on 21/24 occasions, the team with the plus two xG difference won – 88% of the time. There were no draws.
Of those three exceptions, as the xG difference was less that one xG, I would argue only Athletico Madrid’s win in Porto could be classified as “wtf happened there”!
Celtic can hope for that “wtf” moment, but it will be fleeting and not sustainable even over a six-match group campaign.
Brutal
Highlighting that the Champion’s League Group Stage is undoubtedly the most brutal in football, if we consider the averages the situation for the xG concessionists (invented a new word) is bleaker still.
The average xG difference is 1.81 whilst the difference in goal is 2.29.
In other words, teams at this level who generate over two xG against their opponent often go onto score more than just two, as RB Leipzig did to Celtic on Wednesday.
Team such as Bayern Munich and Manchester City will pile on the goals.
You might get plucky as Shakhtar Donetsk did in Madrid. An overwhelming xG difference but a 1-2 defeat.
But more often than not, if you give up xG of two or more, you are getting beaten and possibly getting hammered.
More Depressing Context
In the Scottish league, there have been only 17 instances of plus two xG in 51 matches.
In those matches, three out of 17 have not resulted in a win for the high xG achievers – still an 82% success rate though.
The average xG difference in such matches is 2.31 but the end goal difference is 2.59.
So, in both Scotland and Europe, giving up plus two xG is a BAD thing.
It is worse in Europe, however, as elite sides are more ruthless and more likely to rack up more than two goals off two plus xG.
Conclusion
Whilst Ange Postecoglou has undoubtedly given Celtic more attacking threat against even elite sides, his team continue to give up more than two xG in European ties against “quality” opposition.
This will lead to consistent defeat and occasional hammerings.
As also discussed on the Huddle Breakdown, the defensive shape, alignment and pressing triggers/responses, all need to improve to reduce this risk.
I listened to the Huddle Breakdown episode this morning and very much enjoyed it, as I always do (best Celtic fan podcast by miles, and I’ve an hour commute each way each day, so I’ve sampled a fair range of them; indeed, the HB is so good that it rather ruins the experience of listening to any of the others, for me, but I digress…). On this occasion, it certainly felt like James’s take on the situation was the most compelling. Of the three of you (perhaps because of his physical distance from the heat of the old rivalry), he’s the one who is quickest to point out the difference between where Celtic are and are likely to get to under Ange, and Rangers last season. If we want to do something impressive in Europe, we need to play something like that: medium block, we’ll organised, comfortable out of possession etc. It’s a perennial problem for us: we demand managers who favour exciting, and inherently risky, attacking football. We fall in love with them when we get them. We’re then surprised when it doesn’t scale up against far better opponents. And it shouldn’t. For me, we won’t make progress in Europe under Ange. We might get lucky here and there, but we’ve competed well in games against better opponents from the get-go last season, and conceded all too easily. It is a system problem and the system won’t change in its fundamentals. And that’s fine. I love Ange and I really enjoy watching the team he’s assembled. It is what it is.
Keep up the good work: I love the podcast and your articles, enormously. In 2020-21, they were pretty well the highlights of my week. I now don’t really decide what I think about any Celtic issue until I’ve digested what you guys have to say.
Damian – thank you for your kind and thoughtful words. That feedback is priceless. On the pod i don;t believe James was advocating Celtic play like TRFC. He was merely pointing out the differences. Indeed , as we have seen this season, their defensive approach does not scale well to CL level and they are getting well beaten trying to not get hammered.I believe Ange has the right approach because it is out the box thinking. We cannot play conventionally against top class opponents and hope for other than the odd Barcelona moment. To really compete you have to do something very different and stressing their systems makes sense. We just need to do it a whole lot better. Thanks again.
Thanks for getting back to me, Alan. Sorry, I’m not sure I was clear. I didn’t think James was advocating that we adopt Rangers’ style in Europe (and to be even clearer: I don’t think that we should either). I just liked his explicit response to Enda’s question, which suggested that Rangers’ success last season could be a European benchmark. It could be, if a team was prepared to play that way. And to play that way in Europe, you’d have to play in a congruent style more generally. (I remember in the 2013-14 season, looking to repeat the previous season’s CL successes, Lennon had us playing woefully boring football against domestic opponents for the first half of the season; it was torture, and it didn’t work either.)
I agree with you (assuming I’ve fully understood you). Clearly Ange’s fundamentals will not change. A huge part of me is glad of that because I almost always really enjoy turning up and watching his Celtic side play. I’ve also taken some satisfaction watching them play in Europe, making genuine and sporting attempts to take a dynamic, risky style of football up those levels, and ‘competing’ in the games. Focusing on working that system better is the only real option (putting aside slight tinkers the manager has made in Europe), and the manager certainly has my support in that.
I’m not sure there’s much reason to be terribly confident about that (though another post-Christmas Conference League opportunity would be interesting at some point; not sure the style will be much more successful in the post-Christmas Europa context). But, there are always reasons to be hopeful.
Thanks again for your response and the great Celtic content. Enjoy your weekend.
Just clear your fukin lines and cut out the pussyfooting at the back
I’m with you matey
Let’s sign Andy Carrol and get it int fuckin mixer ?
Which is exactly what the manager is telling them not to do, because you lose the ball and lose control. You can’t play like that at the back and have everything else in the system be the same. The system’s an organism. You either have playing out from the back, or you have an entirely different way of playing. You’re only going to have some variation of the former with Ange. In that context, Alan is correct – the only solution is to do it better and not make mistakes (which is difficult in a game which hinges on mistakes and particularly against teams like Leipzig who play essentially the same system but with superior players: they’re waiting for mistakes, ready to pounce, and mistakes will come, especially with the pressure of a well-worked high press). If you want clear your lines, you want a new manager.
Alan, I also enjoy ‘The Huddle Breakdown’ immensely and look forward to it every week.
What I took from the latest analysis is that you, Juco James and Enda agree that Celtic may be on to something with their ‘out of the box’ thinking. You seem to agree that recruiting young and affordable talent from emerging and established markets is the way forward – even better if the players feel they have a point to prove. Flying out of the traps with a high press, a plan and well-coached players who play with courage and conviction, can upset higher quality teams with experience of the brutal warfare of CL football – for a while.
However, it is becoming obvious that this breathless strategy cannot be maintained – even in supreme athletes – for a full 90 minutes and Celtic seem to die on their feet after about an hour. This then allows more skillful and streetwise opponents to put them to the sword in the final 30 -35 minutes of the game.
Since Celtic don’t seem to have the playing resources to simply replace tired first-choice players with substitutes of equal quality; the alternative is to pace the game to get more out of those first-choice players over the course of 90 minutes.
In other words, develop a more pragmatic strategy for the remaining UCL games, if the desire is to achieve European Competition after Christmas.
If I have summarised your discussion adequately, I would agree wholeheartedly with your arguments. It now begs the question of whether Ange will adapt to the circumstances and learn from bitter experience. He seems like a pragmatic man who would pay attention to analytics, so lets see how this develops.
These are exciting times to be a Celtic fan.
Something that struck me as well was that you spoke about this Celtic’s team’s relative naivety in comparison to their battle-hardened opponent’s experience of the brutality of the sport at the highest level.
I couldn’t help thinking that our club’s greatest achievement to date, was completed using a squad of players as well as a manager and coaching team who were making their debuts in Europe’s elite competition in season 1966-67.
As far as opponents are concerned; they don’t come much more battle-hardened, ruthless or highly-skilled than ‘La Grande Inter’ whom our peely-wally legends pasted in probably the most one-sided European Cup Final ever on 25th May 1967.
Come to think of it, someone must have forgotten to tell Jock Stein to pace the game better when they lined up against Real Madrid in The Bernebau a couple of weeks later!
Maybe Ange is on to something!
Seriously, it may be difficult to gather the stats from these far off days, but I’d love to see how analysts would have rated the Lion’s chances in Lisbon or Madrid at that time.
Thank you – hugely enjoyable comments
See my pinned post for a statistical analysis of the 67 final
I am with you though – we need to tweak, calibrate and develop a thicker skin plus the nouse that allows on the feet thinking in times of stress.
As i always say – Patience
Excllent analysis and a reality check for fans like myself. Our system is only as good as the players tasked to carry it out and let’s be honest, with our financial restraints we are always going to be second best 9 times out of ten in the Champions league. I just hope maybe Ange can secure a few more rough diamonds and by next year maybe we can increase the chances of those Barcelona type results occuring.
There has been times where I’ve thought just clear the ball you’re getting yourself in trouble here. But midweek wasn’t one of those times, it was just a relatively unforced error and we have to accept that those will happen.
I’m actually semi confident that we could win our home games. I expect Real Madrid to win every tie then Leipzig to win away against Shaktar which would likely put them through in second as I can’t see us having a big win against them. But there’s a chance they draw or lose and that would then put us through (sadly Europa would be better for us in terms of more chance of football). The group is very much open in any case.
I’m wondering how the stats or opinions fall on O’Reilly being the number 6 pivot in McGregors absence. I know it was discussed that he was trying too much and not performing, but if allowed to sit and dictate play from deep do you guys think it would work. I’m always shocked at his recovery/tackling stats, he seems like he’s a right place right time guy.
In terms of vision (he scans like an elite player which I’ve not noticed any of our other players do) and picking a pass (and range of passing) he’s up there. He’d be comfortable taking the ball from the back line…
Hetate from the minute the Japanese boys came in I’ve felt was the one with the most potential. But possibly because its so clear how raw he is yet when he delivers its top stuff. Finding that balance between attempting to break lines and play it safe (decision making) will make him a much more cultured player in time (hopefully). But again he doesn’t seem like he can last a full game – is this down to his introduction to pro football and will it get better? (different but similar scenario with Rogic as far as I can remember).
On the fitness/conditioning point… You guys discussed this and I guess made allowances or excuses or even suggested it’s not practical to play the way we do for 90. But is that something we can improve in terms of physical conditioning with the players we have (you look at our players body shape compared to European or English sides – or even Rangers – and they don’t look as strong or fit), or is it personell?
It might be overly simplistic but a start came up on screen near the end showing Leipzig had put in more miles, they looked like they still had a spring and we were flat footed.