In the heat of Athens Celtic’s Champions League qualifying odyssey continues. A chance to enter Celtic mythology awaits this group of players.
On and off the park it has been it has been the most trying week of Rodger’s Celtic reign. That must be put aside, and focus must be on the first XI of available players and their preparation.
What did the first leg tell us about how this might go?
Reasons for Optimism
First Leg Dominance
By any measure apart from goals (I know!) Celtic dominated the first leg.
With 71% possession including in the opposition box 35 times to 7, Celtic created 21 chances to 6. This was translated to 5 shots on target, with the 11 blocked shots telling the story of a very deep and compact defence.
Celtic were forced to shoot outside the box from 14 of their chances and as a result the goalkeeper only had to make 4 saves.
It was a classic case of a deep, low block frustrating a team dominating possession. However Celtic, especially early in the match, created enough chances to have won the match.
The match profile above is obviously influenced by AEK Athens being reduced to 10 men after 57 minutes. But overall this match profile would not look out of place against most Scottish domestic opposition.
Celtic Bright Spots
The Celtic players who excelled were all playing down the left until McGregor was moved in the second half to provide more balance to the team.
Ntcham dominated the midfield and was my Bhoy of the Match. He completed 117 passes and created 5 chances and 3 secondary assists (the pass before the pass that provides the chance). 18 times he provided passes that took out at least one opponent and led the team with an overall Impect score of 81.
Tierney was the driving force again down the left in terms of pushing the AEK Athens defence back. He completed 2 successful dribbles and created 5 chances in addition to an assist and 2 secondary assists. Tierney was only successful with 1 out of 9 crosses struggling to find a hooped shirt in the cramped penalty area.
Finally, McGregor did what he does best. He found space in the tightest of areas. His goal was wonderful given the pressure he was under and the perfection of the execution of the movement, the take and the finish. He led the team with 11 possessions in the box and 3 shots on target. He also led the team by being the forward player most found by passes that take out opponents – 9 times he was on the end of forward passes.
The Ntcham-Tierney-McGregor axis was Celtic’s greatest strength – at half time all three players had a Total Impect of over 50 whilst the next highest was 12. But it was also symptomatic of Celtic’s predictability and lack of balance. Forrest and Rogic failed to generate the same threat down the right. Eventually McGregor was moved over to the inside right position as a number 8 but this of course broke up the highly effective triple axis.
This will be one of Rodger’s most important problems to address to ensure Celtic have the attacking impetus they need.
AEK Athens Undercooked
This will be AEK’s second competitive match of the season. They will not be as battle hardened as Celtic who have already been through 5 Champions League qualifiers and 2 SPFL matches.
This was not a factor at Celtic Park as the Greeks game plan was made simple by the sending off and they were more than happy to sit back in an even deeper, more compact low block. The sending off uncluttered their game in their minds which can be an advantage.
If they must chase the game late on in Athens, are they equipped tactically or fitness wise to do that?
Stick or Twist?
As I mentioned in the game preview, AEK Athens are a highly defensive side. They only conceded 12 goals in 30 Greek League matches, scoring 50. They have no problems spending large amounts of the game defending.
And they do not need to score in Athens. But this is a dangerous game to play if they go for the 0-0 to go through on away goals. There is always the doubt “what if Celtic nick one?”. And can you adjust from such a defensive mind set?
Celtic’s mind set should be as uncluttered as AEK’s was when they went down to 10 men in Glasgow. Celtic need to score. They can be positive.
So, game management will be crucial, and we know Rodgers will tend towards optimism and positivity in approach. This may be the right approach for these conditions.
Galanopoulos
The midfielder that was sent off (harshly) at Celtic Park was also involved in 7 of the 25 occasions AEK bypassed Celtic players with passes or dribbles. Along with the forward, Klonaridis, and the left-wing Lopes, he was their most potent attacking weapon.
He seemed to be a good all round attacking threat and will therefore be a miss for them
Reasons for Concern
Celtic Predictability
I mentioned it already. Celtic were very predictable with all meaningful attacks coming down the left side. Rodger’s needs to ensure Tierney and McGregor are equally effective whilst getting more out of the other attacking players Forrest, Rogic and Edouard.
Those three contributed 6 chances created, and 7 shots at goal compared to 13 and 10 from the left sided trio – most of them from Forrest to be fair (2 chances, 4 shots).
Central Defence
Ajer had arguably his worst Celtic performance, and certainly the worst in a big match. He picked up a caution and will miss the game. He is Celtic’s most dominant defender and still won 11 and lost 3 challenges and interceptions. He also won possession back 5 times, not losing it. Only Lustig posted better defensive stats.
Hendry on the other hand won 7 and lost 6 challenges and interceptions. He won possession back 2 times, losing it once. Neither he nor Simunovic are “primary” central defenders – i.e. the first point of defensive engagement – the “clearer outers”!
As we saw on Saturday, the bulking Heart of Midlothian forwards were often able to mess up Simunovic and Hendry and feed off second balls.
In Livaja AEK can go direct, and in Klonaridis, they have a fast all action forward to run after long passes. The largely untested Celtic pair will have to have the night of their young lives in Athens.
There is the option of pairing Lustig with Simunovic and bringing in Gamboa on the right. This may additionally help stymie the pace of Lopes on the left, which Lustig struggled with. Lustig was commanding in the air at Celtic Park and won 8 of his challenges and interceptions, losing just 1. He also led the team winning back possession 6 times and not losing it.
I doubt Rodgers will do this though.
If Not Edouard?
Young Edouard was frozen out the game in Glasgow, lost in the forest of deep defenders. He lost possession 8 times, completing just 16 passes. He had 2 shots blocked both outside the box.
Griffiths came on and had 3 shots in his limited time on the pitch. But against such a tight defensive unit where there will be few chances, decision making and a sure touch are needed, neither are his strengths.
Dembele has travelled but especially with hamstrings, care must be taken not to put too much pressure on him.
We’ve been here before. An imbalanced squad with too many injuries and insufficient cover for vital games.
Luck
Against such a defensive opponent it will be a very tight and close game. This is probably a good thing for Celtic who have been on the verge of being blown away in some qualifying games in the past when things go against them in hot and hostile environments e.g. Astana and Be’er Sheva.
Therefore, the impact of chance and perhaps refereeing decisions may be vital.
Already there have been two big and wrong calls in this tie.
Celtic were denied a clear penalty when Tierney was brought down inside the box in the 14th minute. Celtic scored 3 minutes later so it got little attention.
AEK Athens were put down to 10 men when Galanopoulos was sent off for brushing against Forrest’s legs after 57 minutes. It was incredibly harsh. If anything, it clarified the Greek’s strategy on the night to shut the game down.
Such moments could be decisive.
Concentration and discipline are therefore key.
Seamus says
Fingers crossed. HH
Anthony Martin says
Despite all the recent negativity let’s all get behind the Celts. Hail Hail!!